Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[78Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is on its way 

https://x.com/epawawx/status/1743782587305230680?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

He may be transitioning to sleet as the Hrrr at 0z shows him in sleet.  If not, then the cold air is hanging in there.

[powderfreak]

18z Euro.  We hope up north.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ticked NW a tad.

[Massplow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think a few inches there is possible. 

Thank you. It seems like it could go either way there. Nothing worse than having a full crew come in and it’s just raining lol

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

models shomdels...its now casting time. 

This will be one of the most fun maps to watch the remainder of the evening 

I have it up and auto refreshing on one of my monitors.  By the Walt emailed me this morning to let me know banding page was back on...

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z Euro.  We hope up north.

Yeah it was a tic or so NW, Looks good up here.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

I have it up and auto refreshing on one of my monitors.  By the Walt emailed me this morning to let me know banding page was back on...

yes, we are back in business with it

[Cuteirishgirl25]

This is a very Dynamic system, I think this is going to be stronger then the Models understand yet!

 

https://x.com/chuckcallesto/status/1743771196661871064?s=46&t=Y3ICRnzOhtk67YmRQyZssQ

[Damage In Tolland]

Mesos 

[SnowHole413]

Having beers by the fire waiting for snow to fall here

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro ticked NW a tad.

We slop

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew I shouldn't have bumped immediate Boston area up at the last moment. I hate weather. 

And as is, NWS map still more bullish than yours for Boston metro.

Except for RGEM and CMC, all reliable guidance yesterday was trending colder and more robust CCB. Remember 18z and 0z NAM soundings last night. Your forecast was solid until 12z today. I debated 4-8 vs  6-10, and went 6-10 with last nights guidance. And I dismiss any AWTs… it was a precarious setup, but there were also favorable large scale synoptics that most here bought. These experiences reinforce not releasing a final forecast until hours before.

Anyway, these are silly postmortem thoughts before we’ve even started.

Should still be the best event my area has seen in years. 

[moneypitmike]

HRRR from 7:00pm - 12:00.  Looks pretty good.

[ORH_wxman]

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR from 7:00pm - 12:00.  Looks pretty good.

Just round 1 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

yeah it's pretty wild to see these differences. Kind of inclined to side with the mesos at this point. I haven't gotten to look in heavy detail today but it seems the HRRR is starting to establish some sort of consistency, at least regarding the banding. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

A lot at stake. Noticed the same. Euro seems warmest now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot at stake. Noticed the same. Euro seems warmest now. 

Based on upstream obs in NJ. You’ve gotta toss Euro 

[BRSno]

What a total bon€r killer for BOS/SE

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

What a total bon€r killer for BOS/SE

If it is, we prepared. Was always borderline. 

[Modfan2]

Moderate now down to 32 with a coating 

[FlashFreeze]

Snow has just started in Barkhamsted, 26°

[Greg]

 Snowing nicely for over an hour here.

[MJOatleast7]

What a total bon€r killer for BOS/SE

Glad we don’t live there (BOS). Unless you’re Tom Hanks doing a relaunch of The Terminal.


.

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

HRRR from 7:00pm - 12:00.  Looks pretty good.

Way overdone down here. There are some places on LI that have maybe an inch, not anywhere near the 6” shown and the whole island is over to rain or sleet now. Central Park also has 0.2” and that’ll likely be it. 

[NorEastermass128]

SE wind killing us on the coast. 

[jaf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Expecting mostly glop here after the trends today. Sucks. Another event down the proverbial and literal drain.

 

At least we have 2 more rainstorms to look forward to this week.  

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

SE wind killing us on the coast. 

What are you talking about? I'm deemed to be on the coast by many here. Being right on the water is a whole different situation all together.

[moneypitmike]

HRRR is not like the Euro

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

What are you talking about? I'm deemed to be on the coast by many here. Being right on the water is a whole different situation all together.

Wilmington is not where I’m taking about. I guess I should say immediate coast. I’m 200 yards from water.