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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
  On 1/6/2024 at 11:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew I shouldn't have bumped immediate Boston area up at the last moment. I hate weather. 

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And as is, NWS map still more bullish than yours for Boston metro.

Except for RGEM and CMC, all reliable guidance yesterday was trending colder and more robust CCB. Remember 18z and 0z NAM soundings last night. Your forecast was solid until 12z today. I debated 4-8 vs  6-10, and went 6-10 with last nights guidance. And I dismiss any AWTs… it was a precarious setup, but there were also favorable large scale synoptics that most here bought. These experiences reinforce not releasing a final forecast until hours before.

Anyway, these are silly postmortem thoughts before we’ve even started.

Should still be the best event my area has seen in years. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 12:39 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

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yeah it's pretty wild to see these differences. Kind of inclined to side with the mesos at this point. I haven't gotten to look in heavy detail today but it seems the HRRR is starting to establish some sort of consistency, at least regarding the banding. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 12:39 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB. 

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A lot at stake. Noticed the same. Euro seems warmest now. 

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Greg

Greg

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Posted
  On 1/7/2024 at 1:32 AM, NorEastermass128 said:

Wilmington is not where I’m taking about. I guess I should say immediate coast. I’m 200 yards from water. 

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It's going to depend on a lot of variables for you particularly. Get into heavier omega and you stave off the mix. Precip lets up and sleet or rain or both can mix in. Very tough call because of the colder temps "Off the Deck" sort of speak.

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