Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe  GYX is expecting a lot from that happy ending?

Ratios. I think they may be HREF fans. It could pan out, but I think that would be my 10% upper end.

[Warwick WX]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My call:

 

I much prefer your floor of 5" than BOX's floor of 2" IMBY.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also we have that decent high to the north…something we couldn’t buy to save our lives last winter…so even though the wind is still off the water for the coast with the somewhat tucked low track, that high is helping to funnel in lower dewpoint air which acts to help keep it cooler just off the deck with evaporational cooling/wetbulbing. 

It may enhance the CF

[wx2fish]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie Jackson milder , huggier 

Looked close to the cape. Smokes snh

[ptspvd]

4 minutes ago, Warwick WX said:

I much prefer your floor of 5" than BOX's floor of 2" IMBY.

You and me both!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Looked close to the cape. Smokes snh

Smokes them Bigly . Would cause me to climb Miller state park Monday 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we toss reggie

[Typhoon Tip]

I just looked at the 12z NAM FOUS grid and those numbers would suggest near blizzard conditions due to falling and blowing snow combined sometime between 10z and 14z over the city of Boston and some of the immediate NW-W-SW subburbs.  I'm not sure we can get by without at least some marine contamination right at the shore points - just being conservative about that factor. 

But sustained 36 mph BL wind implication with 31F with pure snow vertical thermal structure ... Coming down Arlington Heights ... and up E of BED and down toward Newton and possibly down toward Milford ... that region would be very low visibility right around dawn tomorrow with impressive fall rates, with occasional wind gusting.  This run has nearing 1.5" liq equiv in the QPF column of the FOUS grid for Logan, and all of it as happening in a sub 0C total vertical sounding.  Looking down toward LGA on the grid, with well over an inch and a 6-hrly interval exceed .7" (!), then translating NE... Within the run its self, this is a packaged well-behaved deal that implicates the HFD to Boston corridor. 

Obviously there is other guidance.  

[radarman]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie Jackson milder , huggier 

brought October with him

[jbenedet]

“There are many ways to skin a rat”

 

Winter 2023-2024 SNE re-analysis

[Greg]

33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

So given the paste, is this the more realistic clown?

No, it's not that realistic. Use the 10:1 ratio. It's more realistic and easier to correct for. The only way that clown map gets closer to reality is if and only if the storm comes closer and the omega can get that far north. The heaviest still appears to be in far Southern New Hampshire and off to the south in Eastern Mass. Yes, there will be some elevation enhancement on the eastern facing Worcester hills and southern Berks. This is looking like a colder storm now with the high to the north not moving away as quickly as though much earlier and the track is now a tic or two south and offshore.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

21 minutes ago, Warwick WX said:

I much prefer your floor of 5" than BOX's floor of 2" IMBY.

PVD only got 3.8 on 12/09/05, however it was super intense for a couple of hours with blizzard conditions and thundersnow. Maybe we can get something similar with this?

[EastonSN+]

Reggie looks horrible down here. Removed accums IMBY.

[Kitz Craver]

Reggie no bueno in CT

[Greg]

Reggie solution will be tossed due to its warmer bias.

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“There are many ways to skin a rat”

 

Winter 2023-2024 SNE re-analysis

 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Nice morning out with the dog.

 

32/21 PSM @8:50 am 
 

+5 T departures against guidance.

 

Who coulda seen that?

 

Who walks who

[kazimirkai]

2 hours ago, tavwtby said:

ALY bumped up for here... I question that a little, but I'll take that outcome

I live about 10 miles southwest of Kingston and at least half of the models have shown 12"+ since about noon yesterday so it seems reasonable for where I am at least to be in the 12-18 shade. Other areas, not so much. Looking at the probabilistic snowfall forecast, there are plenty of spots in the 12-18 region that have a probability less than 50 of getting it which leads me to believe this map is indeed generally overdone.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Who walks who

Jesus walks with him.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Who walks who

The geese walk him…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs rollin 

[WeatherX]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Reggie looks horrible down here. Removed accums IMBY.

Torches the BL for several hours before the wrap around commences. It's the most aggressive meso with that warmth on these 12z runs. Would really like to see that move the other way on the 18z runs

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs rollin 

 

[moneypitmike]

50 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember DT on the radio shows back in the mid to late 2000s. Always enjoyed his banter/analysis back when it was Eastern before pending snow storms, haven't followed him much in the years since tbh

 

Nothing like a radio show could signal the death of a storm.

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Reggie looks horrible down here. Removed accums IMBY.

Man that blows.....not too late to had to Pit2.  My foot moved up there.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs a little warmer and north but good hit still away from coast.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z gfs tickles a little better / earlier with CCB 

still goes a hair south of MVY/ACK

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The geese walk him…

We really should be getting CT crew together on storm days for dipa's 

[moneypitmike]

GFS clowns:

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs a little warmer and north but good hit still away from coast.

Yeah, would’ve liked to see it stay cold for the CT coast but probably noise. 

[CoastalWx]

I’ll stick to 3-6 here. Would like 4-6, but 3-6 will do.