Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Einhorn is Finkle

Finkle is Einhorn

 

Exactly my thoughts hahaha

[ORH_wxman]

 

Emergency meeting for an excommunication?

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

In all seriousness this one will be fun to watch; how much background warmth and significant El Niño conditions can muck up peak climo with a decent SLP track.

 

We hope you enjoy a solid snow storm . Gonna be pasted. Not sure how far north warnings snow gets 

[moneypitmike]

So given the paste, is this the more realistic clown?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

In all seriousness this one will be fun to watch; how much background warmth and significant El Niño conditions can muck up peak climo with a decent SLP track.

 

[jbenedet]

CNE will cash in. 
 

Berks best. Still likely that area down to upstate NY, to northeast PA/extreme NW jersey

 

Crap winter storm for the densely populated areas in New England.
 

Lots of snow obs with little to show for it.

So snow starved around here that latch onto any crap potential. 

[Lava Rock]

We weenie.

Less than 18hr before go time and I'm seeing 3-12". So much back and forth

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Last year we had Tons of 33F snow in E Mass and even when the clown maps fell for it, NWS stayed very reserved and were often right 

They usually handle these BL/ accumulation issues as good as anyone 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

CNE will cash in. 
 

Berks best. Still likely that area down to upstate NY, to northeast PA/extreme NW jersey

 

Crap winter storm for the densely populated areas in New England.
 

Lots of snow obs with little to show for it.

So snow starved around here that latch onto any crap potential. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

 

Those pretty color warmer anomalies for today that you were forecasting last weekend "will not allow snow idea" is completely wrong so you had to find the prettiest colors you could find .. makes sense 

[Spanks45]

Got down to 14⁰ this morning...still sitting at 23⁰.

Clouds are pretty thick already, lets keep the ground nice and cold for the snow when it comes in. Hoping for 4-8 here, but always fear the dryslot cutoff/earlier changeover in this area with that low tucking in like mesos are showing right now. Soon time to nowcast the first batch and watch what happens tomorrow....Good luck! Biggest storm here, last year was 5", hopefully we can top that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

One and the same…agree. 

I totally disagree.  DT has trouble with spelling etc but he lays out pretty detailed forecasts.  Not always right, but better than this drive by garbage

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re calling for no accumulation? Just white rain? 

He might be Aaron Rodgers .. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Heavy beers and heavy gummies incoming…

It's already began. Days of yore. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Got down to 14⁰ this morning...still sitting at 23⁰.

Clouds are pretty thick already, lets keep the ground nice and cold for the snow when it comes in. Hoping for 4-8 here, but always fear the dryslot cutoff/earlier changeover in this area with that low tucking in like mesos are showing right now. Soon time to nowcast the first batch and watch what happens tomorrow....Good luck! Biggest storm here, last year was 5", hopefully we can top that.

Over. 
 

LFG!

[SouthCoastMA]

I remember DT on the radio shows back in the mid to late 2000s. Always enjoyed his banter/analysis back when it was Eastern before pending snow storms, haven't followed him much in the years since tbh

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

00z nam cumulative cobb ratios resulted in 14.0” for LWM, 11.8” for MHT, and 10.3” for CON. 
 

6z GFS was 9.6”, 9.3”, 9.1” for the respective sites.

How many cumulative Cobb salads can I eat in one sitting? Well, I'm glad u asked

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

How many cumulative Cobb salads can I eat in one sitting? Well, I'm glad u asked

3?

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know some subtle changes but seems like noise. These euro runs sometimes shit themselves this close in. We’ll see. 

That model is prone to suslack time to time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember DT on the radio shows back in the mid to late 2000s. Always enjoyed his banter/analysis back then when it was Eastern. But haven't followed him much in the years since tbh

He’s actually a good met but a) rides the euro way too much and b) doesn’t have good social skills.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX and GYX accum.  maps don't match up too well.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Last year we had Tons of 33F snow in E Mass and even when the clown maps fell for it, NWS stayed very reserved and were often right 

They usually handle these BL/ accumulation issues as good as anyone 

It helps to look just off the deck. So often last year we had like 0C to -1C at 925mb. This is significantly colder so that modeled warm layer is very shallow right near the sfc…that’s often a good signal that you’ll accumulate a lot easier at 32-33 than if you’re already dealing with waterlogged melting aggregates. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe  GYX is expecting a lot from that happy ending?

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s actually a good met but a) rides the euro way too much and b) doesn’t have good social skills.

It's possible he got more crumudgeony with age too

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

In all seriousness this one will be fun to watch; how much background warmth and significant El Niño conditions can muck up peak climo with a decent SLP track.

 

I'm not (personally) sure we are in an El Nino circulation manifold.   Just a personal observational take.  I don't want to derail the thread at this late our... but will offer in brief:  The PDO being out of phase with the warm ENSO, all along, is a specter that's been acknowledged, but the limitations on the El Nino forcing/offset ...all that?   mmm, hasn't been accepted nearly enough.  It's not the correlation between the El Nino and the PDO ( being out of phase) itself that is the problem, it is the correlated hemispheric pattern with PDO, and that which correlates to the EL Nino ... those are competing.

For that, I don't believe the El Nino can mathematically be construed as really coupling/forcing much outside subtropics.

This is not a very good El Nino footprint hemisphere, and the "super synoptic" behavior ...It gets into a different discussion that ranges between speed of the flow contamination f'ing up the standard telecon correlators... and possible attribution shit, as well as a healthy dose of people not wanting to accept things.  

Back to storm:  I agree with the climo track. 

Not just that... a lot of metrics in this are really more ideal than not.  Mid level wind max traveling 1.5 degs lat/lon S of L.I. tends to pummel the Pike when dealing with the cryo -soundings.  Which we have.  It's just a matter of the run to run idiosyncratic mechanical headaches, trying to not actually snow for whatever reason. Then reversing the next run(s) ...rinse repeat.  Some of that - I believe - is related to the narrowing and "needle thread" nature of this system.   I spoke at length about this days ago, that a deterministic headache for this in that it is at the far eastern end of the R-wave signal - that's like the loose end of a hose (metaphor)... Features conveyed through those regions will " flop around" a bit more than where mid way across the R-wave function where it is more predictively (between the ridge/trough couplet) anchored...etc...etc..

This has been behaving like that. These different metrics are scattering around from run to run.  When they collocate better in space in time, we get the solid playout... When the scatter, we get a 06z Euro type distraction.  

After that long blather ...( ha) this will require some NOW-CASTing... Particularly around 12z tomorrow, if there's going to be a CCB genesis we'll probably see the zygote observations beginning to emerge.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

My call:

 

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX and GYX accum.  maps don't match up too well.  

 

With Albany either 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reggie Jackson milder , huggier 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It helps to look just off the deck. So often last year we had like 0C to -1C at 925mb. This is significantly colder so that modeled warm layer is very shallow right near the sfc…that’s often a good signal that you’ll accumulate a lot easier at 32-33 than if you’re already dealing with waterlogged melting aggregates. 

I know

Yup that’s exactly what box said in their disco last nite 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I know

Yup that’s exactly what box said in their disco last nite 

Also we have that decent high to the north…something we couldn’t buy to save our lives last winter…so even though the wind is still off the water for the coast with the somewhat tucked low track, that high is helping to funnel in lower dewpoint air which acts to help keep it cooler just off the deck with evaporational cooling/wetbulbing.