Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Mj-pvd said:

lol it’s no bueno for RI either.

6z GFS looks very good for RI. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No weenie goggles here, and as you stated solid hit one run, strung out mess the very next, and back again.  That’s not a good performance. 

18z was fine, no?

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not. But there is the chance it’s a red flag for the system .

For me, the red flag for mby is the RGEM. I know it's not regarded well around here but I usually find it nails the rain snow lines pretty well. Anecdotal I know. Guess we'll see if Reggie on crack

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not. But there is the chance it’s a red flag for the system .

Just like Thursday morning, and Friday morning Then too? Hmm? It did the same thing those mornings too. Only to come back again at the next run.  I smell a flip flopper.  
 

At some point, you gotta go with something, and as Don has said, let the chips fall where they may. GFS came in strong just now…consistent with the 0z runs. Reggie did too. 

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Mj-pvd said:

lol it’s no bueno for RI either.

Yeah, a "no school Foster-Gloucester" situation?  otherwise awful for the S lowlanders.

[Snowcrazed71]

Am I not mistaken that in the past, some of you have said that the euro is not at its best when it's within 12 hours of the start of a storm? Point is if the euro looks shitty at this moment, do we really follow it. GFS looked good for us here in Connecticut, the Rgem was a nice hot. I think wobbles at this point just as they are common noise

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Just like Thursday morning, and Friday morning Then too? Hmm? It did the same thing those mornings too. Only to come back again at the next run.  I smell a flip flopper.  
 

At some point, you gotta go with something, and as Don has said, let the chips fall where they may. GFS came in strong just now…consistent with the 0z runs. Reggie did too. 

YA as of now I'm not believing it at all with 95% of other guidance having a great thump.. Now if the hi-res stuff coming out between 8:30-9:30 lose the thump then sure time to worry. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

18z was fine, no?

What’s your point?  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

YA as of now I'm not believing it at all with 95% of other guidance having a great thump.. Now if the hi-res stuff coming out between 8:30-9:30 lose the thump then sure time to worry. 

Agreed.  

[Chrisrotary12]

52 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Feels high for my area. Just to my west…. Sure. 

I will go 8”.

[SouthCoastMA]

I know which suite of models I'm rooting for..

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s your point?  

You said back and forth, where's the back and forth?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I will go 8”.

They are almost always high on those maps. It’s kinda funny. They aren’t forecasting 14” from MHT to ASH

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I know which suite of models I'm rooting for..

 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

I will go 8”.

I'd be surprised  if Pit 2 does like GYX is forecasting:

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 22. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. High near 25. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They are almost always high

For us in the Mehrimack Valley we get shadowed on these easterly inflow events. 
 

Edit: shadowed might be wrong word. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

HRRR outside of 12 hours, disqualified

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

For us in the Mehrimack Valley we get shadowed on these easterly inflow events. 

That’s beside the point , 14” lol

and who is shadowing us to the east? 

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

YA as of now I'm not believing it at all with 95% of other guidance having a great thump.. Now if the hi-res stuff coming out between 8:30-9:30 lose the thump then sure time to worry. 

if any 12z model shows it, get out the 'going off the cliff' gif.

[TalcottWx]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GFS is great here. There’s more to SNE than Massachusetts you know. 

You wouldn't guess that after reading an AFD from BOX. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

You said back and forth, where's the back and forth?

The back and forth has been with 6z going strung out mess, and 12z going back to solid hit twice in as many days. Now today at 0z it was solid, and now at 6z it’s back to mess again.  That’s pretty back and forth especially the day the system is starting. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

if any 12z model shows it, get out the 'going off the cliff' gif.

Toasters will be selling out quick today.. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Toasters will be selling out quick today.. 

The wx weenie hotline won’t be able to handle the volume of calls and workers themselves will be calling 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

You wouldn't guess that after reading an AFD from BOX. 

I know lol…it’s comical, and a lil weird at the same time.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Toasters will be selling out quick today.. 

And my snowblower will miraculously start.

[tavwtby]

ALY bumped up for here... I question that a little, but I'll take that outcome

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s beside the point , 14” lol

and who is shadowing us to the east? 

he's on a hill too, 400'...but technically the hills to his east on other side of the valley are higher even over 500'

[DomNH]

I like 6-10'' here. Think the 10''+ amounts will largely be confined to the hills. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Toasters will be selling out quick today.. 

at this point it wouldn’t bother me that much. As you said, all other guidance at the moment looks very good for us.  If it flops it flops. We take what we can get obviously, and we move on lol. Everyone has made their call, and you see how you do? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY bumped up for here... I question that a little, but I'll take that outcome

It’s like the price is right , nobody wants to be under on those weenie graphics , they ridin the HREF mean