Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:41 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

I fully approve, and call it a night:

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Don't you worry child

 

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:33 AM, tomcatct said:

I thought you guys were talking about Ryan Hanrahan....

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We were…and you’re correct. He’s cocked. Lol. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie is still the most progressive and pedestrian of all the models with this 

I want to kick something every time it comes out 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:36 AM, WeatherX said:

Never heard of him. I operate outside of the outside

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Bro, you’re bombed. Go get some rest. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:50 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie is still the most progressive and pedestrian of all the models with this 

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Ukie sucks period. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:50 AM, WinterWolf said:

Ukie sucks period. 

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Ya , I know but sometimes when the Ukie moves (it didn’t move it just still sucks ) they think the euro then follows it 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

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Congrats scooter 

[WxWatcher007]

Would like to see the Euro endorse violence tonight but we’re basically at chips fall mode. Let’s get it on. 

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:50 AM, WinterWolf said:

Bro, you’re bombed. Go get some rest. 

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Ha, this fucking guy

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:55 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Congrats scooter 

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Ya has a 24-27” spot . Pretty hilarious right 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:53 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , I know but sometimes when the Ukie moves (it didn’t move it just still sucks ) they think the euro then follows it 

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No I hear ya. Obviously I loved the 0z GFS …now that was a great hit here.  Would love to see the Euro follow suit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:59 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

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Korean and Austrailiano 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:44 AM, WeatherX said:

Don't you worry child

 

 

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Shoveling CMC snow is one of @powderfreak’s favorite hobbies. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2024 at 3:52 AM, The Graupler said:

Dude calm down with that 

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Oh I’m keeping calm and carrying on!

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

0z HREF now goes out to 0z Monday and the mean is more jacked than any other model (not surprising given what 12z showed )

and the max is kinda funny 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=neI’m 

just click the top right to get to 0z Monday (on the silver  horizontal time bar)

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Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't JP scooter....that is using 10:1. Kuchera has it near my area...at. least relative to eastern MA.

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lol……our neuroses poppin’, Steve keeping smilin’

[MuddyWx]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:09 AM, 78Blizzard said:

Even the mean is nothing to sneeze at:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne

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CCBeast

[wxsniss]

Just tuning back... everyone in bed, back to storm!

HREF really impressive, even mean snowfall. Anyone know if HREF thermals and/or snow algorithms are less reliable? I ask because mean QPF is very close to NAM, yet HREF has most of ESNE 12-18 mean snowfall.

I do remember clinging to HREF snowfalls that never materialized in past storms, other storms it was pretty accurate.

Warmest mean 2m Temps at 9z Sun:

Snow and QPF are not strictly 10:1 so their algorithm / thermals must be more generous than NAM:

Left: Snowfall, yellow = 12-15, orange 15-18

Right: QPF, light blue 1.2-1.5, purple 1.5-1.75

[dendrite]

  On 1/6/2024 at 4:59 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t there a German or French model , anything between now and Euro

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Frenchy

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:22 AM, dendrite said:

Frenchy

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Korea

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:26 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Korea

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That looks realistic.

 

liking the trend minus one or two models to pin the marine taint right to the shore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just too leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

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Fun time . Figure with that 50 knot 850 inflow many interior hills gets smoked 

[bristolri_wx]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

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I posted this last night, sticking with it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

May as well wait on the EURO to fire away at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looking at some of the soundings, and it's really not that impressive....NAM has most of the OMEGA above the SGZ @KLWM.

[wxsniss]

  On 1/6/2024 at 5:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am nervous about busting low....but my map is done. I am just to leery of totally biting off on this damn last minute capture.

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Really tough forecast for SNE inside 495 and southeast... not just the capture but the thermals early on... 0z NAM was very cold once things wetbulb, and I think that's notable for a model that tends to be aggressive with warm intrusion.

Hard not to forecast potential for double digits somewhere, most likely Worcester Hills to 495 / northeast MA.

For MBY Boston suburbs... debating 4-8 vs. 6-10, pending trends overnight. I could see a tight gradient where downtown is like 5" whereas Jerry in Chestnut Hill closer to 8-10". And even then there is potential upside to those numbers if overnight is colder and CCB develops faster.

Agree with Pickles I could see a lull Sunday morning ~7am-9am when it's fizzling (even drizzling) between WAA and CCB, before we crank again into afternoon.

[wxsniss]

Looks a hair south and east at 30h with colder 925s everywhere

[WxWatcher007]

Colder for the CT coast. Good to see.