Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weathafella]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:26 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I just meant that depiction seems to always verify low . Ray posts one similar but higher resolution which also typically is low Vs the regular Euro maps. Just curious 

Expand  

You talking qpf?

[tavwtby]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:17 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty cold in 18z flash freeze is crazy for mass even gets down to ct this run 

Expand  

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:29 AM, Hoth said:

What else is new?

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


.

[weatherwiz]

Can’t wait I I til tomorrow morning when we can put models away and switch gears to mesoanalysis and now casting. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where is this CF suppose to be located during the meat of this first batch of precip tomm nite 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:39 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is this CF suppose to be located during the meat of this first batch of precip tomm nite 

Expand  

Probably SNH. Maybe up a few exits on 93? 
 

Sometimes they’re further south than modeled though. Something to watch. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


.

Expand  

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:40 AM, CoastalWx said:

Probably SNH. Maybe up a few exits on 93? 
 

Sometimes they’re further south than modeled though. Something to watch. 

Expand  

I think it sets up over like Windham.

[CT Rain]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

Expand  

I think New Haven gets 4 or 5" during the thump. Soundings look pretty good and should be able to wet bulb close to freezing along with some diabatic cooling from melting. 

[Hoth]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


.

Expand  

Yeah I mean even seeing snowflakes is a win at this point. Better than the mosquitoes flying around outside two weeks ago. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, tavwtby said:

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

Expand  

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

Agreed. I’ll get like 2” and then drive 3 miles north and see 6” like you said. It’s how we roll down here!


.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:42 AM, CT Rain said:

I think New Haven gets 4 or 5" during the thump. Soundings look pretty good and should be able to wet bulb close to freezing along with some diabatic cooling from melting. 

Expand  

Yeah i was thinking more BDR might struggle. HVN has some sneaky latitude compared to further SW. 

But even for BDR it’s admittedly close. But given the marginal BL, could still be a big elevation gradient there  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it sets up over like Windham.

Expand  

Is it like 32 one side / 27 the other?

haven’t peaked at all 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:43 AM, WeatherX said:

Agreed. I’ll get like 2” and then drive 3 miles north and see 6” like you said. It’s how we roll down here!


.

Expand  

If you’re getting big omega, you might do fine anyway. Get those massive aggregates as 32-33F that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. At least it’s going to be fun to track. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:46 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is it like 32 one side / 27 the other?

haven’t peaked at all 

Expand  

The initial CF isn’t that strong. But it becomes ridiculous by Sunday midday. Here’s 1pm on Sunday on 18z euro..:this is where the potential big bust could happen…you get 40-50 knots of inflow slamming into that CF and someone could pound like crazy for 2-4 hours  

 

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:47 AM, ORH_wxman said:

If you’re getting big omega, you might do fine anyway. Get those massive aggregates as 32-33F that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. At least it’s going to be fun to track. 

I’m pumped. It’s good to be in that target zone for the big omega and the week plus of tracking will pay off.


.

[kazimirkai]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:59 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There are different nuances that affect all three of those valleys in different ways though.  Topography width of the valley and height of surrounding hills is very different with all three of those examples.

In general Valley’s can face issues that hilltowns avoid but not always a given.

There are SWFE’s where the upper CTRV can get more snow than Dave in the N Orh hills. 
edit:  Obviously ULL placement plays a big part.

Expand  

Does the orientation of the valleys matter?  I figured the biggest reduction in snowfall amounts on the Hudson and Connecticut had to do with down-sloping off of the eastern-side ridges. I'm in the roughly east-west oriented Rondout River Valley and models haven't seemed to pick up much of a decreased snowfall outside of simple lower elevation.

[CT Rain]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:45 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i was thinking more BDR might struggle. HVN has some sneaky latitude compared to further SW. 

But even for BDR it’s admittedly close. But given the marginal BL, could still be a big elevation gradient there  

Expand  

Yeah BDR is just an especially bad snow pit lol 

Agreed about lower Fairfield County. 

[moneypitmike]

Barring anything dramatic, I’m feeling good for here on all models.  

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:55 AM, CT Rain said:

Yeah BDR is just an especially bad snow pit lol 

Agreed about lower Fairfield County. 

Expand  

Bridgeport is just bad period  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


.

Expand  

Yes, it’s our bread and butter with these systems. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I may be in the running for max 

[kdxken]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:55 AM, moneypitmike said:

Barring anything dramatic, I’m feeling good for here on all models.  

Expand  

We've kind of been in the thump zone all week. That's why I gassed up the snowblower today.

 

 

[WeatherX]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:58 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yes, it’s our bread and butter with these systems. 

Legit airmass in place. We fight for every snowflake down here before it ends.


.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/6/2024 at 1:01 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I may be in the running for max 

Expand  

Elevation might help a bit with ratios. So it will be close

Scooter better be ready for pictures of my front steps and dog

[tavwtby]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:42 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

Expand  

I'll take! you should be good down there for a good 5/6 I think too

[weatherwiz]

18z GFS bufkit for BDL. That would probably briefly yield 2.5''/hr rates. It kind of sucks the window for the most intense lift is so short.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare. 

[das]

Here comes the reinforcing cold for y’all, moving thru NW VT right now. 

IMG_8374.movFetching info...