Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:38 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

Just showing the downsloping on the western facing slopes with easterly flow.  Mesos normally show that on every event. Sometimes accurate, sometimes overdone.

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deep level E flow the downslope areas in valleys will be notable I think 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:25 PM, Sn0waddict said:

What’s with the NW CT western MA screw job? Seen it on some models now.

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Valley downslope. That area from new Milford points north just west of the hills along the NY border can get porked at times.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:45 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Valley downslope. That area from new Milford points north just west of the hills along the NY border can get porked at times.

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Housatonic Valley. Same issues that CT and Hudson RV face on these . Models sniff that out early 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, I can't believe how robust the 18z NAM NARCAN map is right to the coast.

[backedgeapproaching]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

deep level E flow the downslope areas in valleys will be notable I think 

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Yep, pretty deep easterly flow, going to be some valley screw jobs.  Places like Hoosick Falls NY will be a local minimum. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, I can't believe how robust the 18z NAM NARCAN map is right to the coast.

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Post em if ya got em 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, I can't believe how robust the 18z NAM NARCAN map is right to the coast.

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I’m overdosing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

UK doesn't seem warm looking at NARCAN....aggressive right to the coast

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

deep level E flow the downslope areas in valleys will be notable I think 

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The East flow will be less of a problem for the Connecticut River Valley than if this was a slow moving coastal.  Most of the snow out this way will come from the initial thump.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, I can't believe how robust the 18z NAM NARCAN map is right to the coast.

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Tickle tickle with the earlier consolidation 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Housatonic Valley. Same issues that CT and Hudson RV face on these . Models sniff that out early 

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There are different nuances that affect all three of those valleys in different ways though.  Topography width of the valley and height of surrounding hills is very different with all three of those examples.

In general Valley’s can face issues that hilltowns avoid but not always a given.

There are SWFE’s where the upper CTRV can get more snow than Dave in the N Orh hills. 
edit:  Obviously ULL placement plays a big part.

[40/70 Benchmark]

UK

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:58 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tickle tickle with the earlier consolidation 

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NAM

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is impressive because as much as the NAM blows, it is like a pitbull finding warm layers at short range.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Don’t do it 

[weathafella]

Euro is beautiful especially for the rub and tuck.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro 18z anyone got anything . 18z Sunday position / strength yet 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is impressive because as much as the NAM blows, it is like a pitbull finding warm layers at short range.

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Buries the entire RT 2 corridor.

[weathafella]

Should be a fun Sunday 

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/5/2024 at 11:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

deep level E flow the downslope areas in valleys will be notable I think 

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In Canaan NY for this one.  Will be pissed if we get screwed by downsloping lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:02 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Don’t do it 

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Do what?

[CoastalWx]

A little more QPF here.

[weathafella]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do what?

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lol 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:06 AM, weathafella said:

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Looks like it cut a bit out west 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:06 AM, weathafella said:

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Can I see a clown Jerry 

sorry  I’m not trying to be lazy , I’m at gym 

[ORH_wxman]

Ran the 18z euro from my basement. Jackpot from 495 region here to ORH up to Ray’s hood

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NAM

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Wow....impressive PDC on NAM

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:07 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like it cut a bit out west 

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Yea That’s pretty weak west of EMAATT.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/6/2024 at 12:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea That’s pretty weak west of EMAATT.

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Thought so