Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

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Is the HRRR a good model though? What's it look like Kev?

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's north and sucks.

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He must have his laptop upside down

[dendrite]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

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This run has sleet up to NH lol

[CoastalWx]

Stop getting your effing weather from twitter.

[NW_of_GYX]

stealing snow on that HRRR run. Good thing for the SNE weenies that model stinks at this lead

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The 12z HREF is insane thru only 12z Sunday . The mean is juiced but the max got into some shrooms . 20-24” max In E slope of western New England mountain by Sunday morning 

Mean is 10-15 for Catskills , Berks , N ORH out to 12z Sunday 

[Torch Tiger]

HRRR looks terrific! Much of NE gets something

[wx2fish]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:48 PM, dendrite said:

This run has sleet up to NH lol

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19F and pelting here when the CF moves through. Man I'd lose it 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's north and sucks.

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What was he looking at? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:58 PM, WinterWolf said:

What was he looking at? 

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Dilfs

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:58 PM, WinterWolf said:

What was he looking at? 

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Probably an IPA.

[CoastalWx]

Lets go mini Dec 05.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

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Lmao it almost goes up the Hudson before a last second push east 

[radarman]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:48 PM, dendrite said:

This run has sleet up to NH lol

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Point and click soundings suggest that hydroclass algorithm might need some work.  There might be dry air in the DGZ, but the column is cold in some of those areas, even the warm(er) layers aren't all that warm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.

[dendrite]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:04 PM, radarman said:

Point and click soundings suggest that hydroclass algorithm might need some work.  There might be dry air in the DGZ, but the column is cold in some of those areas, even the warm(er) layers aren't all that warm.

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Yeah it looks a little overboard on the vendor sites…-10C at the top of the cloud layer and still trying to call it ZR/IP.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:06 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For as far west and warm as hrrr is would still get 6- 10 here and be a pretty epic Saturday evening I’m down for that! Also instead of the heaviest snow while we are sleeping it’s now from 5pm to 11pm.

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yeah this timing is getting crazy quick. I just mentioned in my write up start of 7-9 PM...that's going to be a big fail 

[dendrite]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:07 PM, dendrite said:

Yeah it looks a little overboard on the vendor sites…-10C at the top of the cloud layer and still trying to call it ZR/IP.

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I’d toss this ptype with mac jones

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:07 PM, weatherwiz said:

yeah this timing is getting crazy quick. I just mentioned in my write up start of 7-9 PM...that's going to be a big fail 

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Verbatim it’s like 3-4pm western ct and 6-7pm far eastern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Saw this . My bad . Please don’t hate the player.. please hate the game 

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1743357094357594364?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:09 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Verbatim it’s like 3-4pm western ct and 6-7pm far eastern. 

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I'm hoping this is too fast but even the 18z NAM is on the faster side as well (though not as fast as the HRRR).

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nammy saves the southerners. 

[dendrite]

Messenger doing pbp this run

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's north and sucks.

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He needs a compass.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think nam cranks many areas in next few frames , esp e slopes 

[WeatherX]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:14 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nammy saves the southerners. 

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Yeah a big old thump

[weatherwiz]

Looks like it wants to rejuvenate the CCB even back across CT

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:21 PM, weatherwiz said:

Looks like it wants to rejuvenate the CCB even back across CT

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Yup late am 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:49 PM, CoastalWx said:

Stop getting your effing weather from twitter.

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Its almost like looking at the actual models would help sometimes, ha.

[ma blizzard]

  On 1/5/2024 at 8:16 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think nam cranks many areas in next few frames , esp e slopes 

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yep looks like it has the good WAA front end into the CCB