Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2024 at 6:49 PM, CoastalWx said:

BUFKIT is cold at BOS. PITA call. 

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BOS is pretty cold at 925-950….it gets warmer down near PYM but BOS latitude might save them from white rain…it will still be pretty slushy but slushy paste beats white rain. 

[8611Blizz]

Whenever I think of Scooter at work this scene comes to mind

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 6:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

BOS is pretty cold at 925-950….it gets warmer down near PYM but BOS latitude might save them from white rain…it will still be pretty slushy but slushy paste beats white rain. 

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Even at PYM it's snow, albeit like 34ish for awhile.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 6:51 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Whenever I think of Scooter at work this scene comes to mind

 

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I don't do the forecasting like I did a few years ago now, but I used to always quote that movie!   

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/5/2024 at 5:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had the exact, same peak settled depth. It was absurd that they tossed it.

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They would have kept if you were in Lunenburg and said 38”.

  On 1/5/2024 at 6:10 PM, Sandstorm94 said:

Totals cut back from 6z but still a good hit on Kuchie and 10:1

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

[Greg]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:01 PM, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

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Kuchera is usually the most exaggerated/amped vs the 10:1 ratio output.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:01 PM, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

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I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

[Greg]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

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All these wobbles are not just noise. They can translate to relatively large differences on the ground.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

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Still happens.  They’re real and they’re spectacular.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

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Those are last 24 hrs and they are ticks E / ENE on phases 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:07 PM, moneypitmike said:

Still happens.  They’re real and they’re spectacular.

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I kind of expect it late tbh

[radarman]

yep, those are for nowcast time

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:08 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Those are last 24 hrs and they are ticks E / ENE on phases 

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Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

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Sure does 

12z eps has a few more really tucked members compared to 0z (for 18z Sunday )

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

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That and earlier/later intensification are the two things I’m watching at this point.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:16 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

That and earlier/later intensification are the two things I’m watching at this point.

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Big implications here too. The models got that CCB cranking in time here at 12z, let’s see if it holds later.

thats going to be the difference between 2-3” of slop or 8-9” of paste.

[CT Rain]

Bulk of our snow here is going to be Saturday evening through like 1a/2a Sunday. Going to catch some people off guard as I was really hammering around or just before daybreak Sunday. 

[Greg]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:18 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Big implications here too. The models got that CCB cranking in time here at 12z, let’s see if it holds later.

thats going to be the difference between 2-3” of slop or 8-9” of paste.

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For you, an earlier phase and slightly south track will give you a definitely better result. As stated, 2-3 inches of pure glop or 7-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:21 PM, CT Rain said:

Bulk of our snow here is going to be Saturday evening through like 1a/2a Sunday. Going to catch some people off guard as I was really hammering around or just before daybreak Sunday. 

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Some people on a hill in CT were thinking days and days of snow 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some people on a hill in CT were thinking days and days of snow 

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It will be snowing at least east of the river all day Sunday . Might be light, but it will be snowing. And if we catch the CCB the heavier stuff will extend into the morning hours 

[weatherwiz]

Finally made a forecast

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/01/sunday-january-7-2024-southern-new.html

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It will be snowing at least east of the river all day Sunday . Might be light, but it will be snowing. And if we catch the CCB the heavier stuff will extend into the morning hours 

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That sounds reasonable 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:01 PM, moneypitmike said:

They would have kept if you were in Lunenburg and said 38”.

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

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Jeff Jumps!  Excellent new phrase

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:26 PM, weatherwiz said:

Finally made a forecast

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/01/sunday-january-7-2024-southern-new.html

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I like it

Matches WPC very closely 

did you look at them 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:27 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like it

Matches WPC very closely 

did you look at them 

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I did not! 

I did spend a good deal of time though with eastern/northeastern MA. going to be a tight gradient 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:29 PM, weatherwiz said:

I did not! 

I did spend a good deal of time though with eastern/northeastern MA. going to be a tight gradient 

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Should hit on power outages in your write up 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Should hit on power outages in your write up 

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I did mention isolated power outages are possible 

[Damage In Tolland]

We warn 

[Damage In Tolland]

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal 

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It's north and sucks.