Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is so close here. Damn 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

And then they lunge at you electronically with hurtful posts when you try to tell them a good band is coming. 

[radarman]

With so much competition for windblown glop, we should be allowed to claim crystalline feathers falling straight down all to ourselves.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some in NEMA get angry if you get 18 and they get 13 17.5.

FYP

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would be a shock.

I already wrote Hunchie’s Sunday evening post:

“Got 13.5”….surprised it was that much”

[Lava Rock]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t have a jack fetish . Never have . I only have 2 wx fetishes . Wet pasty snow and damage. Should see plenty of both over the next 5-6 days 

what are you're other ones? Ur, nevermind

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

To me it’s not going to be Metheun area. It looks to me like it’ll be N ORH county around Hunch 

Reading the Kuchera yes, Otherwise, the more common 10:1 ratio output puts it very close to Ray maybe a little north of that but not by much.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And then they lunge at you electronically with hurtful posts when you try to tell them a good band is coming. 

Children crying and asking why daddy gets mad whenever he says “Scooter knew”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like the stronger intensification. 

Right into Ray’s rear?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I already wrote Hunchie’s Sunday evening post:

“Got 13.5”….surprised it was that much”

Pictures of front porch and railing 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And then they lunge at you electronically with hurtful posts when you try to tell them a good band is coming. 

Yes, Saw some of that earlier this morning.......lol

[Greg]

The reality is the true storm track may actually be between both the Euro and GFS here. Not as close as the Euro and not further south like the GFS.

[weathafella]

The idea of euro being less of a tool close in was debunked 15-20 years ago.  It has I believe mesoscale components making it probably as valid or more vs the short term models.  However, the short term models are updated hourly (some) and that brings more up to date data.

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein chimes

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1743319161386799432?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

The reality is the true storm track may actually be between both the Euro and GFS here. Not as close as the Euro and not further south like the GFS.

They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The idea of euro being less of a tool close in was debunked 15-20 years ago.  It has I believe mesoscale components making it probably as valid or more vs the short term models.  However, the short term models are updated hourly (some) and that brings more up to date data.

I’ve noticed in recent years the euro can sometimes be too cold aloft within 36 hours on marginal situations with elevated warm layers. The mesoscale models seem to sniff those out a little better….but I largely agree the euro is still extremely useful close in. 
 

It’s near-term reputation also took a bad hit during the Jan 2015 blizzard debacle in NYC…and it’s kind of never recovered to its previous reputation. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein chimes

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1743319161386799432?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

My wisdom grows reading his posts. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve noticed in recent years the euro can sometimes be too cold aloft within 36 hours on marginal situations with elevated warm layers. The mesoscale models seem to sniff those out a little better….but I largely agree the euro is still extremely useful close in. 
 

It’s near-term reputation also took a bad hit during the Jan 2015 blizzard debacle in NYC…and it’s kind of never recovered to its previous reputation. 

Jan 15 bust, Jan 16 bust. There’s been more with lesser implications, but it’s reputation has been hurt for valid reasons imo. Maybe we’ve gone too far beating it up, especially Wolfie, but there is merit to it.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein chimes

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1743319161386799432?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

steincast

[Greg]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday 

What I'm getting at is the small nuances of the phasing and true trajectory of the snow shield vs the marine air influence. Such as GFS slightly earlier phase, Euro slightly later phase, and so forth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some in NEMA get angry if you get 18 and they get 13.

No, not Jeff...you.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My wisdom grows reading his posts. 

My exact words when I saw that map was " No Sh&t Sherlock " lol

[8611Blizz]

Starting to hear the phrase most snow removal people hate. "FLASH FREEZE". It's going to be a rush to clean up before Sunday afternoon.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Starting to hear the phrase most snow removal people hate. "FLASH FREEZE". It's going to be a rush to clean up before Sunday afternoon.

Yep. Hopefully planes skidding off runways and TTs off of 93.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, not Jeff...you.

Enjoy it pal.

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

steincast

That is actually better for this area than I expected from him.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

My exact words when I saw that map was " No Sh&t Sherlock " lol

He gets really bad in the summer. Videos his hands grasping at tall grasses and rummaging through a top layer of dry dirt. He is very wise…

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area and just N looks good relative to lower terrain, but I agree with Kevin....hills will do better.

[JoeSnowBOS]

That is actually better for this area than I expected from him.

He is wrong most of time.


.

[CoastalWx]

BUFKIT is cold at BOS. PITA call.