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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 4:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

So 0” along the entire coastlines of MA, RI and CT?

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I think the best shot for a good snow in coastal CT is for the front thump to produce. That seems perfectly timed to me with it being after dark Saturday into early Sunday. If that’s trash, then it’ll end up a bust absent some serious CCB love during the late morning/afternoon. I still think there’s plowable even to the coast. 

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 3:09 PM, weatherwiz said:
I miss West Hartford...certainly got screwed at times, but was pretty fortunate to have three 2' snow events. I hate it here in Springfield. I so can't wait to move back into CT. 
Springfield sucks. Move out of the hood and into the country. Trust me, much better.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 4:56 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Really a coin flip for these areas. I wouldn’t be surprised by 2” of slop or 9” of paste at this point.

Some positives from the 12z runs so far is beefing back up the CCB at the end 

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It comes down to rates and track. If we get 2-3hr thump and then showery crap after we won't get much. If that front end can last and maybe limit warming a bit until the CF passes, could be 6+ for sure. 

And then there is distance from ocean. Sometimes that is the difference between like 34-35 where it won't accumulate much to like 32-33 where it won't stack efficient, but still accumulates. All this shit to weigh in.

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DJln491

DJln491

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 3:45 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12" 

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That early on Sat?  That would be good, thought it was more like 10pm-midnight by the time it gets going for most of the state

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:00 PM, HinghamBoss said:

Lower than forecasted.  I’d have to go back and look but feels like we have underperformed vs forecast / when it was marginal it almost always trended more negative.

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I think last year I did ok. I usually am conservative when it's borderline for this area.  In other years I was actually on the lower side and we got more lol.

 

For you and I, I think it's probably good to be conservative and stress the difference several miles could make. There is actually a hint of latitude being involved too. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

It comes down to rates and track. If we get 2-3hr thump and then showery crap after we won't get much. If that front end can last and maybe limit warming a bit until the CF passes, could be 6+ for sure. 

And then there is distance from ocean. Sometimes that is the difference between like 34-35 where it won't accumulate much to like 32-33 where it won't stack efficient, but still accumulates. All this shit to weigh in.

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Should be fun to track nonetheless. Little trends matter a lot for us. 00z should be interesting.

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40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 4:47 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT. 

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Well, it never means nothing....even if you are cold, snow will settle some...especially the more you have.

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Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 4:51 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Expecting extreme gradient.  Here in west Somerville about 4 and probably 6 in north Arlington but east Somerville maybe 2.  At least it's  something.

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One of my therapy clients is from Somerville....he asked last night and I said 3-6".

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well wait a minute....depends where in Boston. You could have 2-3" at the Seaport and more than double in Hyde Park/West Roxbury. 

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Yeah we had a borderline event about 7 years  ago where I had to go to Brookline Village Walgreens-literally 3.2 miles from my house.  I was pounding to 6 inches and they were struggling with an inch of slop and white rain.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:24 PM, weathafella said:

Yeah we had a borderline event about 7 years  ago where I had to go to Brookline Village Walgreens-literally 3.2 miles from my house.  I was pounding to 6 inches and they were struggling with an inch of slop and white rain.

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I wonder of that was more from a coastal front? 

I was thinking more like in those borderline situations. My Grandparents lived in Hyde Park on a hill and that extra 200' or so elevation and being on the southwest side of the city helped in those borderline situations. Best example was on 3/31/97. Pounding snow there while Logan was a mix for a few hours.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 5:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

I wonder of that was more from a coastal front? 

I was thinking more like in those borderline situations. My Grandparents lived in Hyde Park on a hill and that extra 200' or so elevation and being on the southwest side of the city helped in those borderline situations. Best example was on 3/31/97. Pounding snow there while Logan was a mix for a few hours.

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Also, this could also be a storm where someone like me sees more than you because of distance from the water, even though you are well north of here 

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