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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


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18 minutes ago, Layman said:

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have?  10%?  Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing?  Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.  

If that influence comes back you have much higher confidence in a higher floor and that is also how you get the likely double digit totals in areas that see banding and that is also where the better ratios and longer duration moderate to heavy snows on Sunday after brunch were coming from 

WPC and Nws don’t windshield wiper their forecast amounts and if today  keeps the secondary stronger short wave too far away to even partial phase you will see them take amounts down lower . If the short wave has a partial phase amounts prob stay similar and a fuller phase likely increases them is my take 

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT

Hopefully this isn't one of those 4-6 inch forecasts that ends up 1-2 inches that quickly changes to sleet and light rain...35⁰ for most of the day Sunday that then freezes everything after the sun goes down type events

Just let us enjoy some sledding  Sunday and Monday before we need the kayaks and generators....

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I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous :lol: God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

I’m really happy to hear this. I got the snow bug when we moved from TX to Albany when I was 7, and the first winter my Dad made it part of our routine that I would help him shovel the snow, which I had never seen before.

BTW, that was the winter of 69-70, and so I remember thinking this is just like Charlie Brown where I see people wading in snow up to their waists.


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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Hopefully this isn't one of those 4-6 inch forecasts that ends up 1-2 inches that quickly changes to sleet and light rain...35⁰ for most of the day Sunday that then freezes everything after the sun goes down type events

Just let us enjoy some sledding  Sunday and Monday before we need the kayaks and generators....

It’s definitely on the table, unfortunately. 

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Sne weenies, we’re like a bunch of Chihuahua‘s chasing and fighting over a toy bone. Dendy and PF are like pitbulls just laying there relaxed, not a care in the world…then at the very end they decide to end the game. A big growl and they rush in to grab that shit, “gimme that”, while the chihuahua’s scatter off shaking and licking their wounds.

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