Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

I told him it’s good to be realistic otherwise you end up getting whiny like Tblizz.

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FYP.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:28 PM, Layman said:

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have?  10%?  Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing?  Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.  

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If that influence comes back you have much higher confidence in a higher floor and that is also how you get the likely double digit totals in areas that see banding and that is also where the better ratios and longer duration moderate to heavy snows on Sunday after brunch were coming from 

WPC and Nws don’t windshield wiper their forecast amounts and if today  keeps the secondary stronger short wave too far away to even partial phase you will see them take amounts down lower . If the short wave has a partial phase amounts prob stay similar and a fuller phase likely increases them is my take 

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:44 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. Congrats Dendrite!” -Thanos

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In the end, The chickens get to roost.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:52 PM, dendrite said:

Hopefully I didn’t trigger any canines with that post. The cc reference was just sarcasm. Please don’t bite me.

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You love this. Sneaking in another nice hit. 

[Spanks45]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:48 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol ya exactly extremely funky convective look over CT

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Hopefully this isn't one of those 4-6 inch forecasts that ends up 1-2 inches that quickly changes to sleet and light rain...35⁰ for most of the day Sunday that then freezes everything after the sun goes down type events

Just let us enjoy some sledding  Sunday and Monday before we need the kayaks and generators....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks like that secondary vort at 12z (now) extends from SE British Columbia to about SE Oregon 

[SeanInWayland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 12:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous  God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

I’m really happy to hear this. I got the snow bug when we moved from TX to Albany when I was 7, and the first winter my Dad made it part of our routine that I would help him shovel the snow, which I had never seen before.

BTW, that was the winter of 69-70, and so I remember thinking this is just like Charlie Brown where I see people wading in snow up to their waists.


.

[JoeSnowBOS]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:43 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. LOL 850s are torched from onset in south ct  

Coastal bust incoming!


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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

I think you’ll do fine there..you always manage to more often than not. As Tip alluded to..let’s see what 12z does later? 

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Maybe? Kinda? Sorta?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just another option on the table .. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:00 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just another option on the table .. 

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Well, that's arousing...

[dendrite]

9z SREFs LFG

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:57 PM, Spanks45 said:

Hopefully this isn't one of those 4-6 inch forecasts that ends up 1-2 inches that quickly changes to sleet and light rain...35⁰ for most of the day Sunday that then freezes everything after the sun goes down type events

Just let us enjoy some sledding  Sunday and Monday before we need the kayaks and generators....

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It’s definitely on the table, unfortunately. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:02 PM, dendrite said:

9z SREFs LFG

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Yikes lets see what NAMmys do , that would be 4/4 hi res wagons north if they shoot north again.. or maybe the stablize things and head south 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:04 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yikes lets see what NAMmys do , that would be 4/4 hi res wagons north if they shoot north again.. or maybe the stablize things and head south 

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YTTTE yesterday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dendy is perked up now with the stealing snow idea being viable.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dendy is perked up now with the stolen snow idea being viable.

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Of course. 

[dryslot]

The 12z Nam probably wont disappoint him either from what i'm seeing.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

nam is juiced 

Secondary vort maybe a hair faster 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

Of course. 

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Him and Dryslot disappeared last few days and now they’ve tripled their post counts in the last 30 minutes 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

Of course. 

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You wonder if that’s the mindset everyone in sne should have. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Western NY with a nice surprise potentially too last minute thats like a 100+ mile shift west for them on guidance last several hours  .. as usual NAM is lost .. has a nipple low that tries to pull southeast off the delmarva 

[weatherwiz]

Not only is NAM pretty juiced but was looking at some soundings and it has one helluva MAUL. 700-500 lapse rates are quite steep. We get maximized lift in there and snowfall rates could end up being something like 2''+ per hour for a bit somewhere.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Him and Dryslot disappeared last few days and now they’ve tripled their post counts in the last 30 minutes 

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At least they'll flood Wednesday.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:16 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Western NY with a nice surprise potentially too last minute thats like a 100+ mile shift west for them on guidance last several hours  .. as usual NAM is lost .. has a nipple low that tries to pull southeast off the delmarva 

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I don't like seeing this for CT  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sne weenies, we’re like a bunch of Chihuahua‘s chasing and fighting over a toy bone. Dendy and PF are like pitbulls just laying there relaxed, not a care in the world…then at the very end they decide to end the game. A big growl and they rush in to grab that shit, “gimme that”, while the chihuahua’s scatter off shaking and licking their wounds.

[Modfan2]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:19 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't like seeing this for CT  

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Giving what is coming for Wednesday I will take this

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:19 PM, CoastalWx said:

At least they'll flood Wednesday.

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Goes to bed Tuesday night with 13.5” OTG and chickens nestled comfortably.. wakes up to grass, mud, and chicken feet sticking up from floodwater

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:19 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't like seeing this for CT  

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I'd hit it-

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:18 PM, weatherwiz said:

Not only is NAM pretty juiced but was looking at some soundings and it has one helluva MAUL. 700-500 lapse rates are quite steep. We get maximized lift in there and snowfall rates could end up being something like 2''+ per hour for a bit somewhere.

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question: i used to use this site for vertically averaged f-gen but it seems it hasnt been updated since march 2023, you have an alternative? i know sites like pivotal and some others have 700mb or other layers but i found this one useful because it did like 600-800 vertically averaged frontogensis, tagging @Ginx snewx as well