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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 12:12 PM, dryslot said:

Congratulations Dendrite.

floop-ecmwf_full-2024010506.snku_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

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Hopefully that messenger shuffles all the way to an ACK jack. I’m going to have major flooding concerns here with 6”+ followed by 2” of rain with frozen ground and I won’t be home to reroute water around my chicken run. 

Losing the CAD early week sucks. I did want some pack for insulating the plant roots. 

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40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 12:33 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was becoming clear at 0z and it was well received as you can imagine  as I posted about it 

I wanted more discussion around it and if I have your ear Will, I realize and most should it was a very delicate interaction with subtle upstream changes in second SW strength and speed having large changes in Sunday days snow duration and intensity.
 

Do you think that interaction(between short waves  can come back ) and if so when would we need to see this by . I think the goal posts are a bit wider then many think , if we are not depending on the first weakening short wave for majority of accumulation , for the period when ratio’s we’re lower 

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Yea it could come back. I wouldn’t favor it but it’s a plausible scenario. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:02 PM, dendrite said:

Hopefully that messenger shuffles all the way to an ACK jack. I’m going to have major flooding concerns here with 6”+ followed by 2” of rain with frozen ground and I won’t be home to reroute water around my chicken run. 

Losing the CAD early week sucks. I did want some pack for insulating the plant roots. 

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Amazing how that’s been modeled for almost 2 weeks.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 12:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why NWS remains conservative until the last possible moment....there are subtle ebbs and flows in guidance that have relatively large impacts on sensible results and are not worth compromising consistency until very late in the game.

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I agree, and I have a sneaky suspicion that the 12Z runs will bump it back down again. I truly don't think that late last night and this mornings runs are the final outcome. They have been fluctuating back and forth like this for the last few days. Now. I'm pretty confident that most of Connecticut is in the four to eight range, but I do feel there's a possibility can bump back up to 6 to 12. The models are still trying to figure out exactly where the second piece of energy catches up to the first. I'm pretty happy even with 4" to 8" as we've haven't seen this in quite some time.

I know most of it's going to wash away from Tuesday to Wednesday storm. But I do think we have some good stuff coming up later in the month. And who knows what February will bring at this point. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 12:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous :lol: God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol

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Happy to hear Ray. My son gets mad when I’m negative now lol. He’s mad at me currently.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:51 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Sunday PM has def trended east with CCB. Looks like the main show is the stuff before that. It still clips eastern areas Sunday afternoon with CCB but it’s not as crazy as yesterdays runs. 

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I really suspect the 2nd S/W in contention has been temporarily lost while relaying from the GOA source as it nears the WC (as we are typing .../overnight) and is trying to pass through the NVA physics of the ridge axis along the immediate WC.  I notice the runs began to de-emphasize the 2nd wave overtaking/controlling when that relay began yesterday -

It may come back/re-emerge more coherently again during the runs today.  That CCB-ing aspect is/was really an acceleration caused by a phasing - with less thereof,  that is [perhaps] why temporarily less proficient -

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Layman

Layman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I really suspect the 2nd S/W in contention has been temporarily lost while relaying from the GOA source as it nears the WC (as we are typing .../overnight) and is trying to pass through the NVA physics of the ridge axis along the immediate WC.  I notice the runs began to de-emphasize the 2nd wave overtaking/controlling when that relay began yesterday -

It may come back/re-emerge more coherently again during the runs today.  That CCB-ing aspect is/was really an acceleration caused by a phasing - with less thereof,  that is [perhaps] why temporarily less proficient -

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If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have?  10%?  Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing?  Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:43 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still loading its an outlier now, its over Philly so take it for what it is, its way amped, earlier NW and warm.. 

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That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range :lol: 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 1:44 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. Congrats Dendrite!” -Thanos

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Climate change is turning me into Tolland now though. I get a little snow and then the cutters just rip through here unabated and wipe me back to bare ground. He’s turning into Mount Waialeale now.

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