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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 10:03 AM, moneypitmike said:

06zGFS clown

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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6z gfs bumped up north again another 25 miles closer to every other piece of guidance which did the same at 6z. One of the more wild trends I’ve seen.  South coast gets a thump then slots now on most guidance GFS coldest. Kuchera shows snow swath better I like to use it for borderline zones.  Congrats CNE back in the game. 

 

 

IMG_2448.png

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 10:11 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wayy too long model watching especially to possibly get skunked down here. Whats your location northern ct right? 

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It’s definitely dicey there, but I still think it’ll work out for plowable especially away from the immediate shoreline.

I’m in East Hartford. Bar was 4” but if we’re being honest this morning if I don’t verify a warning I’d be a little disappointed. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 10:21 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s definitely dicey there, but I still think it’ll work out for plowable especially away from the immediate shoreline.

I’m in East Hartford. Bar was 4” but if we’re being honest this morning if I don’t verify a warning I’d be a little disappointed. 

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Nice ya I-84 north still looks solid for several inches.  Looks like a quick thump then dry slot shore again. Weird guidance did this yesterday at this time too difference is we have hi res now which agrees and also there’s only 36-48 hours til game time now l. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 10:24 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nice ya I-84 north still looks solid for several inches.  Looks like a quick thump then dry slot shore again. Weird guidance did this yesterday at this time too difference is we have hi res now which agrees and also there’s only 36-48 hours til game time now l. 

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Yeah I suppose there’s still time for changes in either direction as the follow up vort is better sampled. This is definitely threading the needle for a higher impact event but I guess going back to the very beginning of this saga a moderate event that gets us off the mat is a big win. Especially before the likely flip to sustained winter later January. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 9:58 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Probably good to not see snow given the system behind it. Major flooding potential 

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  On 1/5/2024 at 10:28 AM, MJO812 said:

Huge rainstorm after that. No point getting snow with that storm washing everything away.

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This is an absolutely wild take to me. This isn’t Caribou. Take what you can get when you can get it and let the chips fall. 

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Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 10:37 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This is an absolutely wild take to me. This isn’t Caribou. Take what you can get when you can get it and let the chips fall. 

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D-FENCE!!!

"Close your eyes and repeat after me....its okay that it isn't going to snow and damn it my life still has value".....

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:00 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX disco actually says everything shifted SE overnight 

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LMAO I believe you but they obviously didn't look at anything after NAM and GFS .. Every single piece of guidance went 50 miles NW and warmed significantly for borderline areas, now CNE back in the game.. Need the same magic from yesterday morning .. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:10 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LMAO I believe you but they obviously didn't look at anything after NAM and GFS .. Every single piece of guidance went 50 miles NW and warmed significantly for borderline areas, now CNE back in the game.. Need the same magic from yesterday morning .. 

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Perhaps they aren’t doing the windshield wiper affect?  Their latest map still has 8-12 for a big swath…GFS at 6z confirms that.  
 

And this is where the Euro OP certainly isn’t anything like it used to be.  So sad. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:24 AM, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps they aren’t doing the windshield wiper affect?  Their latest map still has 8-12 for a big swath…GFS at 6z confirms that.  
 

And this is where the Euro OP certainly isn’t anything like it used to be.  So sad. 

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Well I agree on not changing maps yet, looks bad to keep changing that,  just hope that it reverts back south like yesterday. But they should at least mention the correct facts in their discussion that everything jumped north and warmed pretty significantly.. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:26 AM, dryslot said:

Euro looked fine to me, Some of you for not getting snow for a while set your bar quite high, Be happy your getting any at all.

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I just meant that all of a sudden it was flaccid. We’re 36 hrs out and it suddenly changes its look. 6z GFS looked fine to me. And I’m thrilled with 6-12 or 6-10.  And yes, I’ll gladly take the snow, and have it get washed away a few days later…I’ll Take what and anything I can get here at home. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:31 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well I agree on not changing maps yet, looks bad to keep changing that,  just hope that it reverts back south like yesterday. But they should at least mention the correct facts in their discussion that everything jumped north and warmed pretty significantly.. 

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maybe they’re expecting it to shift back south at 12z? It did the same yesterday lol…this is where the sensitivity in the modeling lately can be a detriment.  As METS, isn’t there job to sift through the data, and gleam the important parts/overall look of all the data, and separate it from the noise?  Not just go with the rip and read idea? 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/5/2024 at 11:33 AM, WinterWolf said:

I just meant that all of a sudden it was flaccid. We’re 36 hrs out and it suddenly changes its look. 6z GFS looked fine to me. And I’m thrilled with 6-12 or 6-10.  And yes, I’ll gladly take the snow, and have it get washed away a few days later…I’ll Take what and anything I can get here. 

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NWS Boston: Seymour snow on the coast see less snow far NNE. Seymour snow has the 6z jitters.

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