Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Woof pretty big jump north on guidance overnight and our Sunday snow ccb is fading away. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Woof pretty big jump north on guidance overnight and our Sunday snow is fading away. 

Probably good to not see snow given the system behind it. Major flooding potential 

[moneypitmike]

06zGFS clown

[WxWatcher007]

Ready to get this storm going. The model watching just gets dumb (for me) after a while. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

06zGFS clown

6z gfs bumped up north again another 25 miles closer to every other piece of guidance which did the same at 6z. One of the more wild trends I’ve seen.  South coast gets a thump then slots now on most guidance GFS coldest. Kuchera shows snow swath better I like to use it for borderline zones.  Congrats CNE back in the game. 

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ready to get this storm going. The model watching just gets dumb (for me) after a while. 

Wayy too long model watching especially to possibly get skunked down here. Whats your location northern ct right? 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wayy too long model watching especially to possibly get skunked down here. Whats your location northern ct right? 

It’s definitely dicey there, but I still think it’ll work out for plowable especially away from the immediate shoreline.

I’m in East Hartford. Bar was 4” but if we’re being honest this morning if I don’t verify a warning I’d be a little disappointed. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s definitely dicey there, but I still think it’ll work out for plowable especially away from the immediate shoreline.

I’m in East Hartford. Bar was 4” but if we’re being honest this morning if I don’t verify a warning I’d be a little disappointed. 

Nice ya I-84 north still looks solid for several inches.  Looks like a quick thump then dry slot shore again. Weird guidance did this yesterday at this time too difference is we have hi res now which agrees and also there’s only 36-48 hours til game time now l. 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably good to not see snow given the system behind it. Major flooding potential 

Huge rainstorm after that. No point getting snow with that storm washing everything away.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nice ya I-84 north still looks solid for several inches.  Looks like a quick thump then dry slot shore again. Weird guidance did this yesterday at this time too difference is we have hi res now which agrees and also there’s only 36-48 hours til game time now l. 

Yeah I suppose there’s still time for changes in either direction as the follow up vort is better sampled. This is definitely threading the needle for a higher impact event but I guess going back to the very beginning of this saga a moderate event that gets us off the mat is a big win. Especially before the likely flip to sustained winter later January. 

[Lava Rock]

06zGFS clown

Can't get excited for 3"

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[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably good to not see snow given the system behind it. Major flooding potential 

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Huge rainstorm after that. No point getting snow with that storm washing everything away.

This is an absolutely wild take to me. This isn’t Caribou. Take what you can get when you can get it and let the chips fall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ready to get this storm going. The model watching just gets dumb (for me) after a while. 

That us where I have been since Wednesday....the limited upside has that effect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This is an absolutely wild take to me. This isn’t Caribou. Take what you can get when you can get it and let the chips fall. 

D-FENCE!!!

"Close your eyes and repeat after me....its okay that it isn't going to snow and damn it my life still has value".....

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can't get excited for 3"

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

 

That's okay.  You can help her in other ways.

 

Too bad we'll be looking at the same bare ground after the next system goes through.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1743207087491195115?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1743207087491195115?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ya exactly everyone north of that is solid for several inches. That jump north last night just made that dashed area a hell of a forecast. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya exactly everyone north of that is solid for several inches. That jump north last night just made that dashed area a hell of a forecast. 

Good old New London/GON.  Gotta love it.

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

D-FENCE!!!

"Close your eyes and repeat after me....its okay that it isn't going to snow and damn it my life still has value".....

 
 

Get ready for the horde rising from their slumber to gaze upon the flaccid Euro. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya exactly everyone north of that is solid for several inches. That jump north last night just made that dashed area a hell of a forecast. 

BOX disco actually says everything shifted SE overnight 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably good to not see snow given the system behind it. Major flooding potential 

“Better to have had and lost , than to never have had at all.”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX disco actually says everything shifted SE overnight 

LMAO I believe you but they obviously didn't look at anything after NAM and GFS .. Every single piece of guidance went 50 miles NW and warmed significantly for borderline areas, now CNE back in the game.. Need the same magic from yesterday morning .. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ready to get this storm going. The model watching just gets dumb (for me) after a while. 

I love the watching, it's SOME of the comments that get dumb... I just ignore now. 19 degrees this A.M.

[dryslot]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge rainstorm after that. No point getting snow with that storm washing everything away.

We'll cancel the snow for Sunday then.

[MJO812]

Just now, dryslot said:

We'll cancel the snow for Sunday then.

Ship some to me through Amazon 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LMAO I believe you but they obviously didn't look at anything after NAM and GFS .. Every single piece of guidance went 50 miles NW and warmed significantly for borderline areas, now CNE back in the game.. Need the same magic from yesterday morning .. 

Perhaps they aren’t doing the windshield wiper affect?  Their latest map still has 8-12 for a big swath…GFS at 6z confirms that.  
 

And this is where the Euro OP certainly isn’t anything like it used to be.  So sad. 

[dryslot]

Euro looked fine to me, Some of you for not getting snow for a while set your bar quite high, Be happy your getting any at all.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps they aren’t doing the windshield wiper affect?  Their latest map still has 8-12 for a big swath…GFS at 6z confirms that.  
 

And this is where the Euro OP certainly isn’t anything like it used to be.  So sad. 

Well I agree on not changing maps yet, looks bad to keep changing that,  just hope that it reverts back south like yesterday. But they should at least mention the correct facts in their discussion that everything jumped north and warmed pretty significantly.. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro looked fine to me, Some of you for not getting snow for a while set your bar quite high, Be happy your getting any at all.

I just meant that all of a sudden it was flaccid. We’re 36 hrs out and it suddenly changes its look. 6z GFS looked fine to me. And I’m thrilled with 6-12 or 6-10.  And yes, I’ll gladly take the snow, and have it get washed away a few days later…I’ll Take what and anything I can get here at home. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well I agree on not changing maps yet, looks bad to keep changing that,  just hope that it reverts back south like yesterday. But they should at least mention the correct facts in their discussion that everything jumped north and warmed pretty significantly.. 

maybe they’re expecting it to shift back south at 12z? It did the same yesterday lol…this is where the sensitivity in the modeling lately can be a detriment.  As METS, isn’t there job to sift through the data, and gleam the important parts/overall look of all the data, and separate it from the noise?  Not just go with the rip and read idea?