Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I just hate to be in or near the bullseye in many of these models with 2.5 days to go.  It usually doesn't work out.

Yeah but to me 6+ is a win after nearly 2 years of garbage.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think 10:1 should be ok overall too. Probably below that in the beginning and maybe some 12:1 in good banding during the meat of the storm. 

Your going to want to see models deepen this into upper 980’s or at least lower 990’s by 18z Sunday   if you want good CCB and Banding , it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion at this point , esp out west 

We have seen some runs do thus particularly at noon time and evening and 0z runs not have nearly the CCB of earlier (except for Boston / Se mass ) . I think that is the biggest wildcard and it was back and forth with this idea for last 36 hours . 0z nam was sort of an anomaly as it had a quick violent burst for S SNE wee hours Sunday am and not much part two except S shore and cape 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I just hate to be in or near the bullseye in many of these models with 2.5 days to go.  It usually doesn't work out.

Its worked our more often than not for that area over the past several years. 

[TalcottWx]

If a moderator sees this, I need help resetting my pw, I don't know it and my reset pw email isn't coming for some reason. Thx! 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your going to want to see models deepen this into upper 980’s or at least lower 990’s by 18z Sunday   if you want good CCB and Banding , it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion at this point , esp out west 

We have seen some runs do thus particularly at noon time and evening and 0z runs not have nearly the CCB of earlier (except for Boston / Se mass ) . I think that is the biggest wildcard and it was back and forth with this idea for last 36 hours .

I think that’s more of an issue if we’re looking for more than 10-12”.  8-12” is what NWS has here, and as is that’s doable with what modeling seems to be showing currently/tonight.  
 

For something ultimately upper tier..then we’d need earlier/and more shortwave interaction, and more of an intense system.  

[WxWatcher007]

Better 48 hours out than 120 though. I think we’re closing in on consensus but obviously the devil is in the mesoscale details. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think that’s more of an issue if we’re looking for more than 10-12”.  8-12” is what NWS has here, and as is that’s doable with what modeling seems to be showing currently/tonight.  
 

For something ultimately upper tier..then we’d need earlier/and more shortwave interaction, and more of an intense system.  

The nws will adjust down if CCB doesn’t happen , there had been more and more secondary shortwave interaction for several cycles and they factored that in . You won’t get 8-12 with simply a weakening first short wave , and yes there are levels of interaction , it’s not all or nothing , it’s something important to watch 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the nws will adjust down if CCB doesn’t happen 

Ok Pickles.
 

Who knows what the Euro will show in 90 minutes?  Or what we see tomorrow and tomorrow night? A lot of modeling has had the same 9-12” amounts here for many runs, and on many different models.  Maybe it changes?  I don’t know. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie . Same deal . Later less interaction . About 5-8” region wide on 10:1 clowns 

I won’t wait for euro but I do weight that most 

[78Blizzard]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah but to me 6+ is a win after nearly 2 years of garbage.

Yes, it is a win, but just saying...

[78Blizzard]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its worked our more often than not for that area over the past several years. 

No, I think you have to go back a bit further than that.  The last couple of years have been crap here.

[78Blizzard]

Ukie was improved for coastal and SEMA areas from 12z.

[wxsniss]

Thanks for updates fellas, haven't had a chance myself to look at any H5 trends...

Seems solutions have stabilized away from the north tics earlier today and all give ESNE at least some CCB treatment, widespread SNE 6-12" 

Critical window and probably last opportunity for drastic changes would be  6z-12z guidance as shortwave energy enters BC ~6z Friday

I'll be back for Euro

NWS ticked a bit up at coast on 7pm update:

[Swiscaster]

Any thoughts on the o/u on Pats game on Sunday given the possible conditions?  30.5 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

Any thoughts on the o/u on Pats game on Sunday given the possible conditions?  30.5 

Under

Pats 4, Jets 2

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

No, I think you have to go back a bit further than that.  The last couple of years have been crap here.

I said the "past several years", as in the aggregate. That isn't disputable. And I would say last year was crap, but the previous year you had a 2 foot blizzard...I'll take some of that "crap".

[bristolri_wx]

36 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks for updates fellas, haven't had a chance myself to look at any H5 trends...

Seems solutions have stabilized away from the north tics earlier today and all give ESNE at least some CCB treatment, widespread SNE 6-12" 

Critical window and probably last opportunity for drastic changes would be  6z-12z guidance as shortwave energy enters BC ~6z Friday

I'll be back for Euro

NWS ticked a bit up at coast on 7pm update:

Expect more SE of I-95 in the morning.  They haven't adjusted much in their AFD since this afternoon.  Models have been improving closer to the coast.  I noticed the sounding over my house has had the warm layer at 800mb reduced significantly.  I think unless you are a few miles from the ocean or cape/islands 5-10 or 6-12 is possible unless the modeling regresses on Friday and Saturday.

[TheSnowman]

Only 1:43am with the Only Storm in 2 years to track, with additionally, Nothing in the future to track either….

 

And everyone is asleep????  I don’t go to bed until 3+, but geez.  I can’t be the “EURO Play x Play Guy”, I don’t have access to it.  

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Only 1:43am with the Only Storm in 2 years to track, with additionally, Nothing in the future to track either….

 

And everyone is asleep????  I don’t go to bed until 3+, but geez.  I can’t be the “EURO Play x Play Guy”, I don’t have access to it.  

 

 

It's atrocious 

[Greg]

[CoastalWx]

Euro is flaccid. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro blows 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is flaccid. 

You can see how it’s more strung out with some type of brief dual low crap Sunday morning while 12z was more robust and consolidated. I thought we were pulling it together but apparently we still have a ways to go for locking down how this really evolves. I will say though that the EPS mean was a little more robust. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You can see how it’s more strung out with some type of brief dual low crap Sunday morning while 12z was more robust and consolidated. I thought we were pulling it together but apparently we still have a ways to go for locking down how this really evolves. I will say though that the EPS mean was a little more robust. 

Mean is ok. Not a huge change from 18z.

[TalcottWx]

It cracks me up how the box afd is like CT doesn't exist. 

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

It cracks me up how the box afd is like CT doesn't exist. 

It doesn't

[ineedsnow]

6z NAM crushes

[H2Otown_WX]

Hi res NAM has a lot of sneaky mid level (800-750) warmth down this way. I think there are too many red flags to forecast more than something like 4-8" along and NW of 84 and 2-4" SE of it.

[wxsniss]

2 wrinkles a little more prominent on this 6z NAM, and I’m thankful we don’t have more time for these to create even more forecasting havoc:

1) interaction of our trailing shortwave with the shortwaves diving down the Midwest 

2) convection out east / multi-low structure robbing some of the inflow mechanics… you can see a bit of that hr 51

[moneypitmike]

This is for Pit2......what's GYX seeing??

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 31. North wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night

Snow likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 22. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.