Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is the second short wave late , seems so on this run

[dmcginvt]

Staying the course it seems

[78Blizzard]

Much colder at the surface.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1002 mb at 12z Sunday 

[CoastalWx]

NAM has no idea what to do 

[CCHurricane]

Pretty decent shift on the lower level temp profile for SE MA, particularly down near the cape.

About a 5° difference at the surface.

[dryslot]

Shocker

[dmcginvt]

some serious fgen there on the coast, curious what gfs will show done with the nam 

 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:33 AM, CoastalWx said:

NAM has no idea what to do 

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I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:30 AM, CoastalWx said:

Nam looks good

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Nice run for the coastal folks worried about p-type.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:36 AM, powderfreak said:

Nice run for the coastal folks worried about p-type.

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Yup, I’d take that

[dmcginvt]

Fantasy right now

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:37 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, I’d take that

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It’s a pretty uniform SFC temp display across the south/east half of SNE… from CT to the South Shore.

That steady moderate to heavy precipitation wet-bulbs everyone to 32-33F.  Theres some paste in there.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

There was no part 2 except for SE mass , toss lol

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:40 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There was no part 2 lol 

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On the south coast there was 

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:30 PM, weathafella said:

Props to Kevin for naming rgem “reggie”

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I'll never forget what Reggie did in 15'.

[dendrite]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:23 AM, dendrite said:

looks like it may be better up my way.

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[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:41 AM, CoastalWx said:

On the south coast there was 

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I don’t count them lol and I edited it right after I posted it 

[dryslot]

There was a part 2 out past Georges bank

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:42 AM, dendrite said:

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Seems like the second short wave interacted late / minimally otherwise I think it would have been like the 12z Reggie . That is really key for anyone getting double digits 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Cool. Next model now. 

[tavwtby]

nice H7 fronto through CT on this run, looks a little more amped to me too

[JKEisMan]

Improved for CT over 18z but no love up north like 12z 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cool. Next model now. 

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I wish the nam had ensembles 

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/5/2024 at 1:34 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I think the early part of the storm could be pretty pasty in a lot of areas. Maybe interior high terrain it starts drying out fairly quick but lower elevations might take a while until the CCB gets cranking. 

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Is this valley paste a widespread NE concern, or for eastern portions? 

It appears I won't have to work this storm, and I'll be able to enjoy at home. I'm pretty excited about that. My first winter storm warning in Connecticut since moving here. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:40 AM, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty uniform SFC temp display across the south/east half of SNE… from CT to the South Shore.

That steady moderate to heavy precipitation wet-bulbs everyone to 32-33F.  Theres some paste in there.

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The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:36 AM, weatherwiz said:

I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

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A caution flag if it’s not worth a crap with this system?  That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense Wiz…

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:45 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wish the nam had ensembles 

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"I wish my shit had tentacles"

[powderfreak]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:48 AM, 78Blizzard said:

The earlier GFS runs had 925 temps collapsing after 9z, despite what the NAM was showing then.

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Yeah for sure it’ll crash when the wind backs NW, but getting 0.50-0.75” QPF at 32-33F would be a beautiful tree caking snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/5/2024 at 2:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"I wish my shit had tentacles"

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lol well for pure entertainment was my point bc they would be all over the place