Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[JoeSnowBOS]

Euro and gfs blend is very good here. My guess is if those hold overnight those totals are coming up in se Mass 

All Boston meteos saying mostly rain inside 95 with second half snow ranging from a Dusting to maybe 4 inches. Time will tell


.

[Lava Rock]

Danger ahead?

Blizzard

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[8611Blizz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A lot of the snow maps you are seeing are assuming 10 to 1 ratios. That won’t happen if your temps are like 34,35°. Which that could happen for a time.

What I have been trying to say, is that you need a good track and a really healthy cold conveyor belt to get higher and totals near the coast.  The coast is difficult, because literally one degree could mean the difference of several inches. Right now I’m sort of being a little conservative, but opening up the door for a potential higher amounts. I’ve been down this road before, and been burned before so I’m just keeping an eye out for that. 

FWIW Bouchard has a graph showing in Boston metro being above freezing until late Sunday morning and not accumulating much until after Noon. Of course he also has Boston at 3" for a total.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Don’t get mad if you get 11.

Smashing accordions after he measures 13.5”…

[wxsniss]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you know that the "2nd S/W" in discussion is still out over the Pacific ocean as of the 12z initialization ? 

yes sir -

That ovoid piece there has to rise up over that shallow ridge axis along the coast, then careens like a bottle rocket all the way around the underside of that S/Wern quasi closed trough while it's opening up and smearing out down stream ...  Lot of moving parts and pieces being handled over the next 30 hours.  I thought this was on-board as of this morning but when I checked I was flat wrong about that assumption.  That's it there.  Folks should go trace that themselves...

Hastily catching up on guidance since this morning, sorry if I missed similar posts earlier.

Great post. First energy entered CA ~0z last night. This second piece looks to enter BC ~6z Friday.

We've seen today how sensitive outcomes are to strength of these 2 pieces and timing of interaction. Would not be surprised to see continued volatility in guidance next 24 hours.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you know that the "2nd S/W" in discussion is still out over the Pacific ocean as of the 12z initialization ? 

yes sir -

That ovoid piece there has to rise up over that shallow ridge axis along the coast, then careens like a bottle rocket all the way around the underside of that S/Wern quasi closed trough while it's opening up and smearing out down stream ...  Lot of moving parts and pieces being handled over the next 30 hours.  I thought this was on-board as of this morning but when I checked I was flat wrong about that assumption.  That's it there.  Folks should go trace that themselves...

I asked Scott this am and he said it was off B.C coast and then the path it takes is pretty ..”fun” so I mean and we are hoping for models to realize how not only this tracks ..but it’s precise interaction with a lead short wave that is subject to small changes itself . It’s really kind of amazing what models can do if you stop and appreciate them . 
 

Can be plenty of changes into tomorrow pm thanks to that delicate interaction, I think the goal posts are wider than folks think , thou models have stabilized a bit Today but it wouldn’t shock me for a new trend to emerge in 12 hours in any direction 

[dryslot]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't under the impression that was your map...

Yeah, I didn't see anything that would warrant that bump.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Don’t get mad if you get 11.

He will need a new one of these if he does..............

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

All Boston meteos saying mostly rain inside 95 with second half snow ranging from a Dusting to maybe 4 inches. Time will tell


.

I think they are letting those 45° SSTs get to them.  Using the Euro and GFS, I don't see anything supporting rain beyond 3-4 miles of the coast.

[George001]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Rubbish??? What are you looking at? 

Torch Tiger wants us to rain

[TheSnowman]

35 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Don’t get mad if you get 11.

There is nothing More Frustrating for me (Who has specific tiers for 4/6/12/15/20/24/30/36 inch storms) than 1”-0.25” Less than those tiers.  

[dmcginvt]

35 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Brattleboro under a Winter Storm Watch, calling for 5-10" and gusts up to 35mph

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That's almost all the way to your norm for the winter!  I think you said 12 in? 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think they are letting those 45° SSTs get to them.  Using the Euro and GFS, I don't see anything supporting rain beyond 3-4 miles of the coast.

I think you aren’t giving them enough respect. 

[tunafish]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

lol i missed the 12-18 for PSM earlier.  cute.

[dryslot]

18z Euro back north a couple tics, Better for the ones on the fringe.

[CoastalWx]

Nice hit.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Tick tock. Back and forth they go. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Heavy heavy snow. Heavier beet 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice hit.

Even for the CT coasties?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snow. Heavier beet 

How many so far?

[mreaves]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

Torch Tiger wants us to rain

Or, conversely, he wants us(NNE) to snow! 

[rgwp96]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even for the CT coasties?

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even for the CT coasties?

 

25 mile tick NW with the goods also not as impressive with the Sunday stuff .. just noise at this point will waffle back and forth til go time..

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

25 mile tick NW with the goods also not as impressive with the Sunday stuff 

starting to think my jokes about taking the ferry to CT from long island is going to actually happen lol

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I asked Scott this am and he said it was off B.C coast and then the path it takes is pretty ..”fun” so I mean and we are hoping for models to realize how not only this tracks ..but it’s precise interaction with a lead short wave that is subject to small changes itself . It’s really kind of amazing what models can do if you stop and appreciate them . 
 

Can be plenty of changes into tomorrow pm thanks to that delicate interaction, I think the goal posts are wider than folks think , thou models have stabilized a bit Today but it wouldn’t shock me for a new trend to emerge in 12 hours in any direction 

Might get lucky with recon for the ATL, Gulf and Pac.

Quote

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0155 PM EST WED 03 JANUARY 2024
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JANUARY 2024
         WSPOD NUMBER.....23-034 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
       A. 05/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK66MOD
       C. 05/0800Z
       D. 20 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          29.3N 91.1W, 29.3N 93.9W, 28.9N 95.1W, 28.0N 97.0W,
          28.0N 97.5W, 23.5N 97.5W, 23.5N 87.0W, AND 29.3N 87.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE / 05/0830Z TO 05/1430Z
       F. MODIFICATION TO PUBLISHED TRACK A66

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: ANOTHER POSSIBLE MISSION OVER
       THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR 06/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
       A. 05/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 04WSE IOP12
       C. 04/1745Z (CORRECTED)
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          35.0N 155.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 155.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 04/2030Z TO 05/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
       FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 06/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
       FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
WJM

NNNN

 

[dryslot]

A lot of worrying from some that sit in the middle of guidance.

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snow. Heavier beet 

Gone from beer to beet juice??

[dryslot]

For the Northern Peeps

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

For the Northern Peeps

Sorry here ya go 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Sorry here ya go 

Thank you