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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2024 at 10:06 PM, CarverWX said:

I am kind of confused. The GFS and Euro go pound town down here but all snow maps show very low amounts? I know there's still time but these models have been consistent the last few runs.

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A lot of the snow maps you are seeing are assuming 10 to 1 ratios. That won’t happen if your temps are like 34,35°. Which that could happen for a time.

What I have been trying to say, is that you need a good track and a really healthy cold conveyor belt to get higher and totals near the coast.  The coast is difficult, because literally one degree could mean the difference of several inches. Right now I’m sort of being a little conservative, but opening up the door for a potential higher amounts. I’ve been down this road before, and been burned before so I’m just keeping an eye out for that. 

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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kazimirkai

kazimirkai

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2024 at 10:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Next run it will jack the pike region. Regardless, first regionwide warning event since 2022. 

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Well I'm in the Hudson Valley. A large portion of the snowfall in these forecasts are dependent on a solid band coming through near the first half of the storm that could easily shift south or east, leaving the brunt of the totals on the light to moderate accumulations through Sunday when the temperatures are higher and the snow liquid ratios aren't as favorable, but that's just my area. I'm not too concerned about an overall change in the character of the storm reducing totals for everyone

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2024 at 8:33 PM, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

StormTotalSnowWeb1.jpg

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GYX "most likely" for here is 4", more than most of the clown maps.  If we see 3-4 while SNE has lots of 10"+, good for them.  Looking back to when MA points saw 10-20"+ on 12/19-20/2009, I thought the same way.  However, come February when KUs #2 and #3 also whiffed here, the fun was gone.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/4/2024 at 9:26 PM, CT Rain said:

The RGEM isn't even all that far fetched. All the models are trending closer to the trailing vort phasing nicely. 

I love a storm that matures and closes off at the mid levels right at our longitude. 

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Heavies QPF happens during/because of greatest intensification rate -   let's do this!

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2024 at 10:19 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

gfs_apcpn_neus_16.png

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TT .... But this never really was a storm for northern New England from the beginning. Only in the last several days did it show some model runs where it pushed into southern parts of northern New England. Hopefully you guys will get into some of this ( although, you're not even in northern New England lol )

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/4/2024 at 9:59 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s probably gonna be another 24 hours before we have significant confidence. This set up is really intricate even though it feels like I’ve been saying that for three years now lol. There are short waves all over the place out west, and in the Midwest. Need to resolve how each of those plays apart.

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Do you know that the "2nd S/W" in discussion is still out over the Pacific ocean as of the 12z initialization ? 

yes sir -

image.png.6c66d5364c5c211a5634dbde85c1af0d.png That ovoid piece there has to rise up over that shallow ridge axis along the coast, then careens like a bottle rocket all the way around the underside of that S/Wern quasi closed trough while it's opening up and smearing out down stream ...  Lot of moving parts and pieces being handled over the next 30 hours.  I thought this was on-board as of this morning but when I checked I was flat wrong about that assumption.  That's it there.  Folks should go trace that themselves...

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
  On 1/4/2024 at 10:19 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

gfs_apcpn_neus_16.png

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LOL, I know you are just taking the piss, they don't care about NNE.  We get ours nickel and diming it to the bank not synoptically. We'll pick up a few to freshen the white on Sun, We'll get a heavy few before the rain on Tues, who knows if the next will cut too.  But we'll get ours. We always do.  This forum should be a show on the bravo channel with all the drama

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted

ALY hoisted Watch for here with 8-12" pretty much for the forecast area outside of Aly west, and SVT, but if things keep trending SE, or a later phase, we're still looking at 4-8 here for my area, unless the midlvl magic happens, have to watch the H7 vort, thinking the same as everyone else, SEMA and pts Metro West jack with this one..

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