Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A Cape and Islands jackpot would be worth it for the entertainment value on here. I’m sure at 0z the NAM will be amped again.  

[weathafella]

3k vs 12k?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:56 PM, metagraphica said:

NWS with a WSW out for "Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York."   5-8" fits with my thinking unless we get the NAMMY.

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Like saying I am marrying my high school sweetie unless I get the troll under the bridge.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Box not biting here. Looks like they are thinking a non event south and east of Boston 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:59 PM, weathafella said:

3k vs 12k?

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3k crushes

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not biting here. Looks like they are thinking a non event south and east of Boston 

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Looks reasonable to me. It’s still early anyways.

[Greg]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:59 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not biting here. Looks like they are thinking a non event south and east of Boston 

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They did say "Greatest uncertainty I95 south and east" with of course the exception of the Cape and Islands.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:50 PM, Henry's Weather said:

Preface: not a met, subject to error.

WAA= warm air advection. This mode of precipitation is caused by warm front mechanics, generally. Warm air moving northward. Pre-mature cyclone.

CCB: cold conveyor belt. This type of snow is a result of cyclonic curvature funneling moist air into the dendrite-forming column in the atmosphere on the cold side of a system. It occurs during the strengthening of a cyclone to near peak strength and continues once it reaches maturity.

subject to correction

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What's the difference between a CCB and a TROWAL?

[ineedsnow]

18z RGEM gone wild

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:44 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I laugh at the attention you guys give the NAM. 

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At this range I seriously only trust the RGEM/Euro on a system like this...obviously the GFS is gonna over torch the BL among other problems the NAM/ICON/UKMET just cannot be trusted for various reasons...by this time tomorrow we can probably begin to trust the NAM somewhat 

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm guessing they're just taking the NAM and paying it no mind.

After the winter storm watches that are hoisted for Southern New England, they have the winter storm watch going from Saturday evening all the way through late Sunday night. Night. So I guess they expect the snow to continue through the day Sunday and to Sunday night.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:03 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

What's the difference between a CCB and a TROWAL?

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Trough of warm air aloft 

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM with the 8 to 14 banding sig

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looks reasonable to me. It’s still early anyways.

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Meh, 2” in se Mass is low. Just my opinion.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:05 PM, ineedsnow said:

18z RGEM gone wild

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Reggie shows us how to link the WAA and CCB stuff. Results in a widespread major storm. That’s kind of the optimal look. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don’t hate the wbz/fischer map. Seems to keep a lot of the warming confined close to the water

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:10 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, 2” in se Mass is low. Just my opinion.

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There will be more than that.

[kazimirkai]

One thing I notice about the nam comparing the models at 48hrs (which includes 3km, rdps etc.) is that compared too all other 18z models and 12z ones that came out earlier, the 12km has the weakest low pressure. Maybe that lends credence to the idea of it being somewhat of an outlier?

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:02 PM, Ginx snewx said:

3k crushes

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My point 

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:06 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Trough of warm air aloft 

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Well yes, I know what the acronym stands for.  I was wondering about the physical differences.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie shows us how to link the WAA and CCB stuff. Results in a widespread major storm. That’s kind of the optimal look. 

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That separation deal reminds me somewhat of a scaled-down December 2003, where we had a warm thump, 12 hour break, then a cold blizzard.

[Prismshine Productions]

3km at hr60

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

18z Reggie

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CT Rain]

The RGEM isn't even all that far fetched. All the models are trending closer to the trailing vort phasing nicely. 

I love a storm that matures and closes off at the mid levels right at our longitude. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats reggie. You received a huge contract after your 2015 season but you turned into a bench bat and sunflower seed distributor the past 8yrs. 

[weathafella]

Props to Kevin for naming rgem “reggie”

[kazimirkai]

At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?

[Hoth]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:45 PM, Sandstorm94 said:

Ew

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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lol that’s about par for the course here. 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/4/2024 at 9:38 PM, kazimirkai said:

At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?

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RGEM can be pretty good now inside 54-60.  The NAM IMO is junk beyond 36-48.  the 3km really is only good inside of 30.

[78Blizzard]

The RGEM track was almost a carbon copy of 12z's run.  Seems to have locked in on that, at least until we get to 0z, lol.