Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI

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Yea, hopefully that Steve-to Will-to Brett-to Scooter corridor can catch a break for once.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, hopefully that Steve-to Will-to Brett-to Scooter corridor can catch a break for once.

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Lol. Passive aggressive shots already…hate to see it for the first snower of the season. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:21 PM, Henry's Weather said:

General tilt seems more positive, slightly more separation between S/Ws. Should be less amped, good news for coastal crowd, bad news for dryslot and dendrite

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I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. 

But it gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol.   Just letting these model runs come in at this point.

 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:27 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. 

But this gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol.   Just letting these model runs come in at this point.

 

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It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. 

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:28 PM, Henry's Weather said:

It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. 

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Keep the Wellbutrin handy.  

[78Blizzard]

Looks like it may be a bit colder this run.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:28 PM, Henry's Weather said:

It’s pretty draining dopaminurgically. 

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Ha ha

No but I mean literally it ... the analysis effort is draining after awhile. Hell, even NWS gives their employees 16 hours a day to do other shit...

[CoastalWx]

Ha, part 1 might whiff.

[dryslot]

Quite bullish i might say,

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:33 PM, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

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Woah, that’s amped

[drstuess]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI

Are P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ha, part 1 might whiff.

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Definitely exchanging WAA for CCB these past few runs

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ha, part 1 might whiff.

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I think we went back and forth with clown range on NAM for the blizzard 2 years ago.  A few runs close in had a clean whiff.

[dryslot]

You never can discount the Nams entertainment value though, It could do stand up comedy on a good night.

[CoastalWx]

NAM still quite warm inside 495.

[tunafish]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:33 PM, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

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8-12 but no watch for coastal cumberland?  hmmm

[weathafella]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:21 PM, Greg said:

Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky.

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Honestly I think outside of 36 it is wonky often.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:36 PM, tunafish said:

8-12 but no watch for coastal cumberland?  hmmm

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That map may have slipped out, Even here is 6-8", That would be watch worthy.

[CoastalWx]

Going to have to weight for round 2 outside of the interior. 

[weathafella]

NAM featuring the late show.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam is fugly as all hell 

[dryslot]

Its going to focus on the 2nd s/w as it looked to chase that convection offshore.

[MaineJayhawk]

Seems sus.   I'll wait for the Navy to confirm

[tunafish]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:33 PM, dryslot said:

Quite bullish i might say,

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I recall Chris (at some point) saying he really doesn't like going big on the opening bid because it results in scaling back, but the public has already seen it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:39 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam is fugly as all hell 

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Showery disjointed mess so far 

[LSC97wxnut]

Watches up for outside 128 just as the NAM puts up a near-whiff.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Going to have to weight for round 2 for everyone . 

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Fixed 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 8:34 PM, drstuess said:

Are P-type issues locked in for S coast RI? I am seeing people run with those 10:1 maps, but NWS 10% high end map is still ~1 inch. If so, people probably are in for some disappointment.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

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Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern.

subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast.

That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold.  The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are < 25 F, and its cold in the vertical. 

I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. 

I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in.

[Henry's Weather]

NAM is a whiff for WAA, not for CCB

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Block Island.