Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18" is too high IMO.

Ray when does your next update come out , later tonite ?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18" is too high IMO.

Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis.

[Torch Tiger]

agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE.  I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city.  lol  we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible.

[H2Otown_WX]

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

That's just DIT being DIT, he knows we aren't actually getting 2' lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis.

The eps mean I s basically what I would forecast personally. Maybe less within 5 miles of the coast.

[dryslot]

Start high, Go higher, AMWX's motto.

[Henry's Weather]

BOX should release their first suite of watches at 4 today, probably going to go for 6-12+ interior, 4-8 along coast excluding cape and islands

[Prismshine Productions]

12z ENS actually came in beefier, not as much as 0z, but an improvement over 6z

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[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE.  I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city.  lol  we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible.

 The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The eps mean I s basically what I would forecast personally. Maybe less within 5 miles of the coast.

seems like a tamer version of the GFS. 

the 12z GFS was the ceiling in my opinion, and the RGEM got close. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

 The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario.

oh I agree, wouldn't forecast it ...yet <3

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

A hair better than 0z:

Take that in a second. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone could see that if things work perfectly....but i agree I wouldn't forecast anyone to get that amount. But if someone inland gets both good WAA snow and then hammers in the CCB, I'd bet ratios for them could easily pop a few 18-20 burgers.....but again, thats only in an optimal scenario. I think low end warning is the way to hedge right now with maybe some 12-16 lollis.

Agree. I think our first call will be 3-6 or 4-8 for the shoreline with a strong gradient possibility discussed and 6-12 for inland CT. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. I think our first call will be 3-6 or 4-8 for the shoreline with a strong gradient possibility discussed and 6-12 for inland CT. 

We’re just happy legit snow maps will be created and distributed. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take that in a second. 

Yup. I’ve got 8-12” for us along 84 in WCT. 

[tunafish]

GYX watches are up for southern areas

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ray when does your next update come out , later tonite ?

Saturday. 

[George001]

I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming. 

[Bryan63]

 

From Eric Fisher

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re just happy legit snow maps will be created and distributed. 

Amen. 

[das]

I was talking with some friends at BTV earlier in the season, "laughing" that we'd be on the outside looking in in Jan/Feb watching storm after storm run thru the benchmark and leaving us with 1" of cold smoke or, worse, staring at high cirrus.  Here we go, I guess.........

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

 

From Eric Fisher

Not sure I would follow the coastline that much north of BOS, but not a bad first guess. If he's thinking marine issues, Essex county coast isn't really immune to it.

[MaineJayhawk]

Somebody wake up Henry VIII .. the NAM is running

[Prismshine Productions]

Out to hr27, ridge is slightly flatter

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[weathafella]

PBP on the 18z NAM-now that’s a weenie!  (Not that I wouldn’t do it….)

[78Blizzard]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m thinking 10-15 here, it’s coming. 

That's about what I was thinking, too.  I have seen various model runs over the past couple of days enhancing the snow in this general area.  We'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model.

Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI

[MuddyWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a bit less amped than 12z through 36h, so that's prob how it will play out this run....but NAM is always full of surprises the deeper into clown range you get on that model.

By clown range you mean anything after 0h

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

By clown range you mean anything after 0h

Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky.