Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's mild pretty well inland. They'll probably wetbulb to near 32 or below though. 

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We pasties 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:39 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's not a blockbuster event. But after last year, a lot of folks are gun shy methinks.  

I'd be happy with 4-8 from this, but expecting a little more

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Yeah, I think a lot of it is people are waiting for the other shoe to drop because of how awful it’s been for two years.

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:40 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think the gfs and euro are that far apart for this being a 75 or so hour forecast. You could do worse.

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That's what I mean. Not a whole lot different so I don't know how much value is added by digging into the Euro. I still see the same issues that I've had concerns for.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re not at the goalpost setting stage?

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Yeah close to it. My gut says Euro srn edge of it. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re not at the goalpost setting stage?

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Praying x model is consistent next run stage 

 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:38 PM, Winter Wizard said:

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit. 

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925's get no higher than -3°C here, so taint should be very minimal, if at all.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:23 PM, Layman said:

I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area.  I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn.  From my own personal archive...

January 20, 2023

 

January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience.  These were 2 different drivers.

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i don't drive for Amazon   Yeah never seen any of their trucks or vans with AWD, they seem to drive ram promaster vans almost exclusively.

anyway, glad the Euro was better down in CT

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:36 PM, FXWX said:

Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

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Can't keep upping the dosage

[dryslot]

Interactions with the 2 s/w of more or less plus the intensity will have the final say, It’s  still in flux, The days of locking models in 3-4 days out has sailed a while ago.

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean this thing's got a ceiling folks.  I think we've kissed it with some of these solution over the last couple of run cycles.  Probably we're bouncing at this point forward, with some runs less and some run back to this ... but there is an upper limit to what this thing can do given the input. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Can't keep upping the dosage

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  On 1/4/2024 at 6:38 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I also think the GFS provided the biggest dopamine injection in years too so there’s only so much higher you can go 

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Beat ya to it  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

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I thought the same thing... weird.. I think bc it's a bigger hit down here, less posters?

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:19 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. Good to see that 00z was a blip though. 
 

00z

 

12z

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That’s a lot of precip on the euro for alot of this subforum. Gorgeous here for CT folks and out east too.  Great run. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:53 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I thought the same thing... weird.. I think bc it's a bigger hit down here, less posters?

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I think some were wanting a ticker tape parade 

i think gfs also stole its thunder a tad and many posters N of pike it was moderate / reassuring but nothing wow for 

[NotSureWeather]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:53 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I thought the same thing... weird.. I think bc it's a bigger hit down here, less posters?

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Think people are scared something will go wrong. I know I am.

[CoastalWx]

EPS juiced up a tad. Does still seem like a little spread on Sunday. Judging by the mean.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS juiced up a tad. Does still seem like a little spread on Sunday. Judging by the mean.

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[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:56 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think some were wanting a ticker tape parade 

i think gfs also stole its thunder a tad and many posters N of pike it was moderate / reassuring but nothing wow for 

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NAM might go wild lol

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS juiced up a tad. Does still seem like a little spread on Sunday. Judging by the mean.

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Precip field is a tic or so north of 06z EPS, Which surprises me a little.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS juiced up a tad. Does still seem like a little spread on Sunday. Judging by the mean.

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3 run trend of the 500mb trough digging is noticeable since 00z on EPS valid sunday 12z

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ensembles tightened a little 

many seem in a freaking good spot to give a very solid warning event to most of SNE 

lets see this sustain itself bc we are dealing with a rather delicate interaction with secondary shortwave that if 6 hrs later or sooner makes a considerable difference in duration and banding 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[wxsniss]

A hair better than 0z:

[Henry's Weather]

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 7:06 PM, wxsniss said:

A hair better than 0z:

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Most would sign for that no questions asked.

 

congrats blue hills 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 7:06 PM, Henry's Weather said:

Folks who imagine that more than a swath of 6-12+ could materialize do not understand the fundamental synoptics of the event. This has never had the firepower to be a long-duration, multi-stream merger blizzard. The question is SECS or low-end MECS (meaning a zone of 12-15), which is entirely dependent at this stage on whether the trailing energy can interact with the initial WAA-causing pulse and close off H5 south of the coast to prolong CCB for a couple more hours. I’ve seen a couple insinuations of 1-2 feet from some here, who are woefully demonstrating their lack of comprehension of or experience with these type of systems.

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I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/4/2024 at 7:12 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I seriously don't think any poster on here ever saw this as more than 6-12" with an isolated jack of 18 kinda storm.. This is still likely a 6-12" storm for the max zone with the potential for a 12-18" stripe if we get this to slow down and nuke somewhere near the cape which will allow the ccb to become quasi-stationary.. 

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18" is too high IMO.

[PWMan]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:24 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Euro not really getting it done for ski country.

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At least the cranberry bogs will be in good shape.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 7:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18" is too high IMO.

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Just a big IF .. in the case we get this to really slow down and nuke .. and that's most likely in your hood .. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 7:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

18" is too high IMO.

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Ray when does your next update come out , later tonite ?