Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[dendrite]

That's the worst of all of the 12z models up here...still a lot to iron out.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:17 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty bad run to run consistency from every piece of guidance now. If we can just get the gfs and euro to lock in now that would be great. 

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Yup. Good to see that 00z was a blip though. 
 

00z

 

12z

[Lava Rock]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:19 PM, dendrite said:

That's the worst of all of the 12z models up here...still a lot to iron out.

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what giveth get taketh away

[CoastalWx]

So called King has been drinking mead.

[Layman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:05 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Amazon gives me AWD, we good

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I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area.  I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn.  From my own personal archive...

January 20, 2023

 

January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience.  These were 2 different drivers.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

Done early evening for most.

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AWT

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Euro not really getting it done for ski country.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That’s a lot of qpf for many well over an inch 

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:24 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Euro not really getting it done for ski country.

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We teeter

[CarverWX]

That's a nice look on the Euro. very GFS like.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:17 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Snows well into the night for most 

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Remember days ago when Ryan said you locked in 12 to 18 well Euro agrees

[kazimirkai]

  On 1/4/2024 at 5:22 PM, weathafella said:

All of those clown maps are guesses and produced by the vendor, not the model.  I would advise ignoring them and looking at soundings, snow growth, and qpf.

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I mean I guess you could just look at qpf and temperature throughout the event and estimate

[wxsniss]

Still lots of uncertainty, but seems 0z Euro was the anomaly

Gap from here to 12z GFS is a more potent trailing s/w and associated earlier capture... highly impactful variations that are easily within noise at 60h-72h

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Remember days ago when Ryan said you locked in 12 to 18 well Euro agrees

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Let’s Poundmeineverytown.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:24 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Euro not really getting it done for ski country.

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Wa-Wa-Wachusett

 

But yeah.  They need help to our north

[Ski Patroller]

Jiminy Peak may miss the heaviest, too. Hoping that the bullseye moves up into the Berkshires/S. Greens...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:28 PM, kazimirkai said:

I mean I guess you could just look at qpf and temperature throughout the event and estimate

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Lift too...lift is extremely important as is snowgrowth. You can have all the QPF you want and favorable thermals, if lift and snow growth suck you're going to be disappointed.

[FXWX]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

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Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

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I would guess the ensembles match the op well but def worth checking soon

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:36 PM, FXWX said:

Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

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the nam posts were largely positive 

cne posters not fans of euro , CT Ri folks /Se mass pumped 

[snowemgee]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 
there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

Failure fatigue from last season, December and previous forecast for January!

"Show me the money!"

But yeah, should be party time

[Winter Wizard]

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Oddly silent for a run that drops 12+ on the majority of folks in SNE. 
 

there was more discussion extrapolating the 84 Nam this morning 

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Our hands are “tied up”, can’t post…

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:36 PM, FXWX said:

Shows you the negative tilt / mindset of some posters... Lol... Who wants good news... It's more fun complaining...

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I also think the GFS provided the biggest dopamine injection in years too so there’s only so much higher you can go 

[CoastalWx]

Another run, another solution. Not much more to say. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's not a blockbuster event. But after last year, a lot of folks are gun shy methinks.  

I'd be happy with 4-8 from this, but expecting a little more

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:38 PM, Winter Wizard said:

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit. 

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It's mild pretty well inland. They'll probably wetbulb to near 32 or below though. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

Another run, another solution. Not much more to say. 

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I don’t think the gfs and euro are that far apart for this being a 75 or so hour forecast. You could do worse.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 6:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

Another run, another solution. Not much more to say. 

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We’re not at the goalpost setting stage?