Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[George001]

This is gonna be a really tough forecast for Boston. Just a couple of degrees could be the difference between 2 and 10 inches.

[8611Blizz]

Kind of all over the pace with the heaviest stuff.  There is even more variation on other stations but still to early to get excited or disappointed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That gfs run was sent down from the heavens for the WOR posse but it will be unfortunately sent back up at 18z. 

[mreaves]

Let's hope @Sandstorm94,your new neighbor in Brattleboro doesn't get sucked in.

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:22 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There it is, the Dave and Ineedsnow jackpot I’ve been waiting for and expecting for days.

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[snowdazed]

Looks like another whiff in central RI.

Oh well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like my first call will need a tweak or ten....

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

oh boy oh boy oh boy

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Imagining an NFL game called not for the low visibility snow but for the lightning   

[weatherwiz]

The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Hey now @mreaves, any snow on the ground is good snow. I got a hell of a low bar of anything over 8.5" would be a new record for me to see from a storm.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That's like a 12/9/05-lite ending. We're getting 60+ knots inflow at 850 by Sunday PM. That's crazy.....considering it starts as light WAA 12 hours earlier.

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did anyone ever check the CIPs analogs?  that 12/9/05 system - you know we talked about that last week, but it keeps reminding us of it.  Might be worth it to check.

[HinghamBoss]

@CoastalWx - take 3 to 5” and be happy with anything over?

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:30 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That gfs run was sent down from the heavens for the WOR posse but it will be unfortunately sent back up at 18z. 

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Gefs is pretty similiar

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:38 PM, weatherwiz said:

The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first. 

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You're psychologist would be proud of you for rehearsing that self-control over your depression management without intervention of Librium -   

lol

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:40 PM, MJO812 said:

Gefs is pretty similiar

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You’d think ensembles follow the op at this point though. Euro going with a better vort interaction would really go a long way. Today at least. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:39 PM, HinghamBoss said:

@CoastalWx - take 3 to 5” and be happy with anything over?

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It’s a really tough call. I think if the GFS happen I’d probably take the over, but close tracks may bring in warm air especially right along the coast. Go 128 down to Interior Southeast mass and you’d probably be OK.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:40 PM, MJO812 said:

Gefs is pretty similiar

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Need more than gfs/gefs though. A compromise between it and euro/cmc/uk would suffice. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Totals down slightly from 6z, but still...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wx weenie mental health  hotline is looking for more counselors , we have high volume calls this am 

we recommend you distance yourself from model output while on hold  and look at photos of puppies 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:14 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Most of these solutions are still crushing my hood pretty well.  I would take a blend of the NAM, RGEM, GFS, EURO, GDPS, throwi in the old DGEX if it is still running on an old Commodore VIC-20

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OH you and I are golden here.

It's not our complaint privilege on this one -

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wx weenie mental health  hotline is looking for more counselors , we have high volume calls this am 
we recommend you distance yourself from model output while on hold  and look at photos of puppies 

Kittens work too

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[weathafella]

I’m sticking with 4-10 for me.  Higher number is gaining some credence and in reality 6-10 would probably be a better forecast.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie seems to be seeing a touch of what some amped models see but doesn’t curl up tight to cape 

The broad SW area of Maine  and S Nh are increasing today on most models cept gfs

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie on board with the big Sunday finish. It's a little faster though....more like late morning/midday is when eastern areas get croaked instead of deeper into Sunday afternoon like the GFS

[weatherwiz]

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:42 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need more than gfs/gefs though. A compromise between it and euro/cmc/uk would suffice. 

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You guys know how I feel about 18z…get ready for a fluke run… in either direction imo. 
 

I have to say though, that on most all the modeling, we’ve been looking pretty solid here.  Hope that is the case. 

[NoCORH4L]

We're actually not that far from go time when you think about it. We're literally only a little more than 2 days away. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:50 PM, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

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Gotta disagree

Mmm nah danger there forecasting remotely near those rates

Maybe a reason to say (+) next to some forecast amounts 

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:50 PM, weatherwiz said:

One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1. 

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General ideas is all I think of them as.

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS BUFKIT BDL!!!!!!! Oh my please verify...holy cow. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ray took a bathroom break at work to check the gfs and walked back to his deck with pants down at ankles…updating his lego snow map shortly.