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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty pasty for a chunk of it though so it wouldn't all be 10:1 there....but some of the CCB would prob be better than 10:1 as temps crash and there's excellent snow growth.

I love posting clown maps it triggers so many(not you)

index (11).png

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Dang, I think I'm out unless models start ticking back southeast a bit. maybe an inch on the backend 

Maybe we can 12/9/05 your area....grab a few inches and 90-100mph winds at the end.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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23 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

The issues aloft you mention, notwithstanding ... the bold appears to be the bigger constraint when negotiating p-type ( from what I'm seeing).

Firstly, the storm's synopsis and features may be too far NW-N?

It's been discussed in the past ... the NAM tends to have a NW bias over the western Atlantic Basin with handling coastal cyclogen and subsequent tracks - particularly outside 36 to 48 hour window. 

In addition to above, there is also a known tendency for systems of more than less S origin, to bump N as they move into shorter ranges. 

Those are two disparate error considerations.

This run of the NAM strikes me as logistically having both those issues questionable.  Or not, but the point being, ...since they are valid I would be careful. 

 

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon is a little torchy here, don’t like.

That trough interaction is what makes it dicey for se areas..you can see the low get tugged northward/northwestward towards LI before it shoots east, which changes coastal sections over. I suppose we also want to see the confluence stand strong, or start ticking stronger again. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted

I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north.

We haven’t had the powderfreak jack run yet though

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north.

Ya you kinda want the nam and rgem amped at this range , and if the euro ens follow then I’d give them more weight , until then I’d guess the Meso’s might have a amped bias 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I haven't seen anybody say anything about this, but they NAM tends to be over amped especially 3 days out. We've seen this before with other storms where the name brings things up and over amps things. And then we see it settle back down within a day or so. I know this would be good for some in central/northern New England if this were to verify, but, I just don't see this going that far north.

Don't do it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We haven’t had the powderfreak jack run yet though

Just gotta fire up the ARW for those.

But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just gotta fire up the ARW for those.

But a NAM run that gets pingers to Ray is probably due in the next 2-3 cycles.

Seems like the second short wave interaction and the details of it ,  will be tbe bigger  driving factor now in future track and amounts , would you agree or ..and if so when do you think models really get confident in that 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So tfwiw, I just looked over the NAM

It's clearly more powerful with the resulting S/W product that it then moves under Long Island by 1 to 1.5 deg lat.  That's a climate-based signal for the HFD-BED for one.   But, it's not even as linear in structure anymore; it's flat out negatively tilting and closing a 500 mb isohypses - 

What's interesting is that it's sans the WAA snow burst on the front side in lieu of just correcting the whole storm's ferocity/expression from 12z Sunday throughout the day. 

 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted

The problem with the forecast here is truly how the SW behaves/interacts. It seems to want to hang back a little too long vs being absorbed or gelling quicker into the main offshore low. The Southeast tracks of the main ocean low are good. It keeps the heaviest precipitation in the heart of our viewing area. But if the SW hangs back too much then this thing comes farther north which is not good.

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