Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:54 PM, apm said:

That's only through 7 AM Sunday.

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Even still, it only shows 1.9" by 7am Sunday at PVD? I didn't expect the rain/snow line to last for that long north of the south coast.

[dryslot]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:51 PM, Lava Rock said:

I'd hump that

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I bet you would............

[Damage In Tolland]

May get my wet snow 10+ paster here if this is right 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:48 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

T-blizz just threw his computer and phone out the window. 

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Nah, still several inches to go after that here 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:47 PM, dendrite said:

Dude, we used to analyze the dgex and srefs here.

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Where is Bob??? Taunton Wx

[NittanyWx]

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

ICON out to hr33, this might come in with slightly more s/w interaction... Got to wait

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:02 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Where is Bob??? Taunton Wx

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Gone 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

May get my wet snow 10+ paster here if this is right 

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That may be the payoff for us on the line .. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:03 PM, NittanyWx said:

Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast.  That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west.

 

As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors.  0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft.

 

I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.

 

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A track just south of Long Island will generally bring mid level warmth to the south coast not much of a surprise ..  NAM is on the northern envelope right now,  its like 25 south of the twin forks.. RGEM similar track, more intense.. If we get that track locked in a lot of the south coast is cooked after a wet few inches..

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/4/2024 at 1:45 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

Last sighting he was trolling another subforum that was much iffier for snow

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Easy, find the region that fits your forecast. The geese flew 150 miles south apparently.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM was pretty wild. Just nukes out near ACK.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:08 PM, Kitz Craver said:

Easy, find the region that fits your forecast. The geese flew 150 miles south apparently.

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM was pretty wild. Just nukes out near ACK.

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wow a pounding for extreme east MASS all the way back to about you.. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM was pretty wild. Just nukes out near ACK.

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What a beaut 

rgem has been looking jacked up for a couple runs 

[WxWatcher007]

Where are you all seeing it. TT is slow.

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:47 PM, dendrite said:

Dude, we used to analyze the dgex and srefs here.

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JMA says hold my beer.

[dryslot]

fwiw and its not very much, Lot of 1"+ qpf on the 12z ICON.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Where are you all seeing it. TT is slow.

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Pivotal

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=500hv&rh=2024010412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Where are you all seeing it. TT is slow.

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Weenie run with 1.5-2.5" liquid in EMASS.. it's steady for CT just cold enough for most .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Where are you all seeing it. TT is slow.

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Pivotal 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:14 PM, dryslot said:

fwiw and its not very much, Lot of 1"+ qpf on the 12z ICON.

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Yeah though it was a bit more subdued and a tick south of the 06z run which was even more wild. Still a really good solution for a lot of the forum though.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:15 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Pivotal 

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[Ginx snewx]

18 spot for old man winter.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Gone 

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Where?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

 

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We take 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

 

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We endorse. Apologies again, Groton.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:18 PM, Ginx snewx said:

18 spot for old man winter.

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Pretty pasty for a chunk of it though so it wouldn't all be 10:1 there....but some of the CCB would prob be better than 10:1 as temps crash and there's excellent snow growth.

[SouthCoastMA]

Dang, I think I'm out unless models start ticking back southeast a bit. maybe an inch on the backend 

[Heisy]

This is potentially turning into a chase worthy event. Didn’t think that was even possible few days ago. I’ll think about it you lucky dogs


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