Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Boston Bulldog]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:03 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

OK.  That is good info!

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  On 1/4/2024 at 4:03 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was the feedback I was looking for and hope to recall in future 

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There is a reason why there is so much concern about convection ruining phasing dynamics in some potential high end bombs off the coast. Threading the needle isn't easy. This setup seems "messy" enough that boring background dynamics should win the day and get this thing up the coast without convective issues.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:06 AM, George001 said:

The gfs went south a bit, but the Canadian went even more north. Low is also deepening to the high 980s

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GFS IS 988 Too. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:06 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s putting all that emphasis on the lead short wave, which it holds the identity of longer… It has virtually no interaction with the second wave

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Was a violent but shorter pounding it seemed . Was over by 1pm into E mass

18z-0z panel had nada precip except .1 over Eastern half Essex county 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wow the Canadian is a pummeling here. Holy smokes. Starts as paste and gets colder 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:08 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wow the Canadian is a pummeling here. Holy smokes. Starts as paste and gets colder 

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Probably delusional but it would get mid-level magic into CNE.

[NittanyWx]

Fun to see the 3 operational models all have different ideas on how to handle that trailing vort interaction.

 

First bit of sampling out west and that's become an increasingly interesting feature. 

[78Blizzard]

Gfs bombing out late gives the outer cape the good stuff.

[WinterWolf]

The CMC doesn’t really put much emphasis on the trailing wave though.  Everything else seems to incorporate that trailing wave.  CMC behind some on this evolution?  

[George001]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:12 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Probably delusional but it would get mid-level magic into CNE.

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Yeah, that’s a burial. CNE absolutely gets in on it with the low that far north.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:13 AM, WinterWolf said:

The CMC doesn’t really put much emphasis on the trailing wave though.  Everything else seems to incorporate that trailing wave.  CMC behind some on this evolution?  

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The front running wave is much stronger on the GGEM so it never really allows the trailer to crash the party. It keeps the downstream ridging in front of the trailer to a min. But when the front runner is that potent, you still get a big solution. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was a violent but shorter pounding it seemed . Was over by 1pm into E mass

18z-0z panel had nada precip except .1 over Eastern half Essex county 

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Our current weather paradigm over the past decade says, always plan on the system lifting out faster than modeled.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, I don’t know… With a growing consensus heading another direction vs the CMC’s track record … that’s a bit of a buyer’s beware solution

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 2:34 AM, CoastalWx said:

Lynnfield did well. They must have had  18 easily. I saw pics from my wife’s family who lives there. 

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North shore in laws, rough. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:17 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I don’t know… With a growing consensus heading another direction vs the CMC’s track record … that’s a bit of a buyer’s beware solution

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Agree. The good news is though, there seems to be multiple ways we can get it “done”, which is a complete reversal of the past couple winters. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:16 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The front running wave is much stronger on the GGEM so it never really allows the trailer to crash the party. It keeps the downstream ridging in front of the trailer to a min. But when the front runner is that potent, you still get a big solution. 

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Thanks Will, but I understood that part about the leading shortwave being strong, my point was that the CMC isn’t incorporating that trailing wave as the other varsity models seem to be, and perhaps it’s a flawed solution due to that fact, and perhaps not prudent to take it to seriously because of that?  

[Henry's Weather]

More of an omega block on 0z versus 18z, should be more tucked

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[TalcottWx]

  On 1/4/2024 at 3:39 AM, MJO812 said:

Congrats guys

Went from a few inches down here to rain. Still waiting for an inch of snow. Will be near 700 days soon.

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Idk how u live in NYC, regardless of snow. 

[Thunderblizzard]

The GEFS seem like a pretty solid improvement from 18z.

[Henry's Weather]

[MuddyWx]

I’ll take that from the GEFS

[kazimirkai]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:27 AM, mannynyc said:

GEFS

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Much better handle than the 12z. Maybe the new sounding input influencing?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:28 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

The GEFS seem like a pretty solid improvement from 18z.

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Some massive hits scattered in there 

[Henry's Weather]

Amped.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Quite a few nam like solutions there. 

[MuddyWx]

Improvement for sure, juiced up from 18z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:32 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some massive hits scattered in there 

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Some rainers for sema too. I guess ya gotta play with fire if you want the high end outcome. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:36 AM, MuddyWx said:

Improvement for sure, juiced up from 18z

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That’s impressive for a mean. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is actually steadily trending towards the kicker S/W phasing with the trough and creating its own axis of PVA. this would have pretty big implications for you guys and even down here into LI/LHV/NNJ

[MJO812]

  On 1/4/2024 at 4:27 AM, TalcottWx said:

Idk how u live in NYC, regardless of snow. 

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I wonder that myself all the time