Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Capital H hate going with a deterministic snowfall forecast at this range. We know it's going to change, we've shown we have low skill getting amounts right this far out, and we just don't have a lot of data to build that forecast with. I have to think this accidentally slipped out to the winter page. We aren't even required to have QPF this far out, and WPC doesn't even provide the probability information to produce the rest of the graphics on the winter page. 

That makes more sense.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Capital H hate going with a deterministic snowfall forecast at this range. We know it's going to change, we've shown we have low skill getting amounts right this far out, and we just don't have a lot of data to build that forecast with. I have to think this accidentally slipped out to the winter page. We aren't even required to have QPF this far out, and WPC doesn't even provide the probability information to produce the rest of the graphics on the winter page. 

I was just thinking.....when have they ever had this so far in advance?

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking.....when have they ever had this so far in advance?

Probably a new hire’s slip up as most of the vets are still are on use/lose leave?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

35 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back...

Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm

Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:  

BOX says Good luck forecasting within a few miles of the ocean on N shore or 15 miles S shore w the deep E flow . I’d rather drink spoiled milk 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking.....when have they ever had this so far in advance?

 

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Probably a new hire’s slip up as most of the vets are still are on use/lose leave?

I mean sometimes we mess around and create storm total grids to see what we have in the forecast as a baseline. But the automated scripts can grab them and send them without someone physically pushing the button. That's why we have a "work" grid we can create at GYX. Those don't go anywhere, and I'm not sharing the image. 

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking.....when have they ever had this so far in advance?

Probably quick on the draw since they had few opportunities last year, lol.

[OceanStWx]

21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's happening more often, but I don't know for sure where to find reliable information on plans. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Well there we go.

Edit: Now I see that's for Friday, which is probably too late to help with this storm, but will help the 10th.

[OceanStWx]

That's a box roughly north to Juneau, west to the Aleutians, south to SFO, and east to the CA coast. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Well there we go.

Looks like some of those Pac flights are recon for the 9-10th storm.

[Ginx snewx]

https://battaglia.ddns.net/twc/#

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

BOX says Good luck forecasting within a few miles of the ocean on N shore or 15 miles S shore w the deep E flow . I’d rather drink spoiled milk 

Separates the men from the boys in forecasting.

[The 4 Seasons]

24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Capital H hate going with a deterministic snowfall forecast at this range. We know it's going to change, we've shown we have low skill getting amounts right this far out, and we just don't have a lot of data to build that forecast with. I have to think this accidentally slipped out to the winter page. We aren't even required to have QPF this far out, and WPC doesn't even provide the probability information to produce the rest of the graphics on the winter page. 

ive already seen articles on MSNBC home page with this graphic in it. Probably auto generated AI written stuff, not sure

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking.....when have they ever had this so far in advance?

It's been a long snow drought last few years, everyone's excited and breaking all the rules.

[Patrick-02540]

34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Bizzare map, western mass and CT you get nothing! Shocked they put this out so far in advance.

Those areas are covered by NY and Albany offices.  I guess Boston just stopped at the border.  

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ive already seen articles on MSNBC home page with this graphic in it. Probably auto generated AI written stuff, not sure

The strangest part of the actual image is that it looks like they hit "smooth" with the CWA borders on and blended in a bunch of zeroes because all their neighbors don't have QPF out that far. That's why it goes from 6 inches to nothing so fast as you approach ALY and OKX CWAs.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

The strangest part of the actual image is that it looks like they hit "smooth" with the CWA borders on and blended in a bunch of zeroes because all their neighbors don't have QPF out that far. That's why it goes from 6 inches to nothing so fast as you approach ALY and OKX CWAs.

yea i figured as much, looks awful for the public or for anyone who doesnt know that

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea i figured as much, looks awful for the public or for anyone who doesnt know that

Yeah, if you don't know, that image could be a bridge jumping inducer.  

[ORH_wxman]

NAM still looks like it would mostly be the trailing shortwave. It did take a bit longer this run to grind up the lead shortwave so maybe it will eventually trend toward other guidance. 

[OceanStWx]

It's also so cold aloft that unless you've absolutely scorched the boundary layer on easterly flow, it will snow. I mean 950 mb temps around -3 for the GFS and NAM, it's hard to get rain that far away from the shore break.

[wxsniss]

32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Capital H hate going with a deterministic snowfall forecast at this range. We know it's going to change, we've shown we have low skill getting amounts right this far out, and we just don't have a lot of data to build that forecast with. I have to think this accidentally slipped out to the winter page. We aren't even required to have QPF this far out, and WPC doesn't even provide the probability information to produce the rest of the graphics on the winter page. 

100%, might have been a mistake.

But someone made it, so wonder how this compares to the NBM, because doesn't seem supported by Euro/EPS or GFS/GEFS.

And agree with others that the marine influence (especially once you approach 128) is probably factored too heavily.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's also so cold aloft that unless you've absolutely scorched the boundary layer on easterly flow, it will snow. I mean 950 mb temps around -3 for the GFS and NAM, it's hard to get rain that far away from the shore break.

Yep. Last year we were lucky for -1 at 925.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM still looks like it would mostly be the trailing shortwave. It did take a bit longer this run to grind up the lead shortwave so maybe it will eventually trend toward other guidance. 

I would expect the NAM to trend towards other guidance. I would be pretty shocked if it doesn't. I'm not sure if the NAM is really meant to sniff out and lead the pack in changes at H5 but maybe it happens. What I do like on the NAM though is it does have a hefty looking band of frontogenesis materializing. It might not where we want it to be verbatim, but it shows it. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Last year we were lucky for -1 at 925.

My threshold is below zero at 950. If you have that you'll snow unless it's just mood flakes. So -1 at 925 will usually leave 950 too warm.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Last year we were lucky for -1 at 925.

We were lucky if the 0C 925 line was SE of ORH, lol. So many events were so marginal and a lot of it was because we had zero high pressures in a decent spot.....the 1/7 event finally has a decent high that is able to funnel down good air into any CCB.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My threshold is below zero at 950. If you have that you'll snow unless it's just mood flakes. So -1 at 925 will usually leave 950 too warm.

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We were lucky if the 0C 925 line was SE of ORH, lol. So many events were so marginal and a lot of it was because we had zero high pressures in a decent spot.....the 1/7 event finally has a decent high that is able to funnel down good air into any CCB.

GFS pretty cold at 950 even here. near -1C. 

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie at 84 looks like a big hit....keeps that front runner s/w intact long enough.

Kind of gives an idea of how long we've been tracking this one given that we're only getting into clown range for NAM/RGEM. Still plenty of time for changes.

[UnitedWx]

51 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Probably quick on the draw since they had few opportunities last year, lol.

Premature Forecastulation?

[Torch Tiger]

18z ICON has that days n days look

[wxsniss]

Some #s from 12z GFS... this is warmest point 90hr for KBOS... I don't think easterly fetch is strong or prolonged enough to spoil this... when we've struggled in the past we were kissing 0C 950

Station: KBOS
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
Elevation:  47.82
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
SFC  1010.3       48      0.8    -0.3      72     14
M    1000.0      130     -0.1    -1.1      74     20
S     950.0      539     -2.8    -3.0      79     29
S     900.0      965     -5.6    -5.8      88     32
M     850.0     1411     -7.7    -8.1     108     25
S     800.0     1882     -8.2   -13.4     130     14
S     750.0     2383     -7.9    -8.5     182     17
M     700.0     2922     -7.1    -7.7     209     22
 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Some #s from 12z GFS... this is warmest point for KBOS... I don't think easterly fetch is strong or prolonged enough to spoil this... when we've struggled in the past we were kissing 0C 950

Station: KBOS
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
Elevation:  47.82
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
SFC  1010.3       48      0.8    -0.3      72     14
M    1000.0      130     -0.1    -1.1      74     20
S     950.0      539     -2.8    -3.0      79     29
S     900.0      965     -5.6    -5.8      88     32
M     850.0     1411     -7.7    -8.1     108     25
S     800.0     1882     -8.2   -13.4     130     14
S     750.0     2383     -7.9    -8.5     182     17
M     700.0     2922     -7.1    -7.7     209     22
 

Need some decent rates and it will work. 

 

ICON looks a little SE and weaker at 18z.