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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2024 at 7:15 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

Good to see that spread tighten up quite a bit and drop a lot of those sheered out whiffs from last night. The Mean and the 50 percentile match up very close now. 

 

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Seeing those lows tightly clustered so close to the coast, couldn't that bring mixing issues into CT, RI and MA?

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2024 at 7:17 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Seeing those lows tightly clustered so close to the coast, couldn't that bring mixing issues into CT, RI and MA?

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Absolutely. Atm im more worried ab. what the gefs is showing than mixing for us. We'll see where were at tomorrow at this time- ha. But we still got nearly 84hrs to figure things out and tons more runs to go. Just like seeing the consistency and potential for a higher ceiling even if that means playing with fire (i.e. mixing)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 1/3/2024 at 7:31 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I missing something? Unless you are like within 5 miles of the water, thermals look fine?

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Pretty stout erly flow. I do think you are in a better spot, but could be a lot of 33F snow which isn't the most efficient accumulator. But, if we can pound with -3C at 925..maybe wetbulb to 32 or so. Beware the 10:1 maps here that's all.  Once the Cf comes through Sunday morning, it's fluff again. But go to Foxboro at 200' and they'll have no issue as of now. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2024 at 7:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pretty stout erly flow. I do think you are in a better spot, but could be a lot of 33F snow which isn't the most efficient accumulator. But, if we can pound with -3C at 925..maybe wetbulb to 32 or so. Beware the 10:1 maps here that's all.  Once the Cf comes through Sunday morning, it's fluff again. But go to Foxboro at 200' and they'll have no issue as of now. 

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Thanks. I feel okay at my location, usually far enough away to not suffer big impacts.

a place like Sharon to Foxboro to Easton could be a sweet spot. A litttle bit of elevation 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2024 at 7:37 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thanks. I feel okay at my location, usually far enough away to not suffer big impacts.

a place like Sharon to Foxboro to Easton could be a sweet spot. A litttle bit of elevation 

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These are the things I ponder in my mind lol. The plus factors are a cold 925-850. Good lift at times into DGZ.  Negative are SSTs around 43ish. 

It makes it hard because the beaches could struggle for an inch, 3 miles away is plastered, and 8 miles away is 9" of paste. I've seen it many times. If one variable is off, it changes drastically. Logan is a bitch to call.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2024 at 2:05 PM, OceanStWx said:

Don't really have the players on the field for another 36-48 hours. But I would start to feel more confident around that time.

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  On 1/3/2024 at 7:43 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So um is this sampled now 

Yesterday some folks / Mets thought it would bounce around till 0z yesterday when it was fully sampled 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2024 at 7:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

These are the things I ponder in my mind lol. The plus factors are a cold 925-850. Good lift at times into DGZ.  Negative are SSTs around 43ish. 

It makes it hard because the beaches could struggle for an inch, 3 miles away is plastered, and 8 miles away is 9" of paste. I've seen it many times. If one variable is off, it changes drastically. Logan is a bitch to call.

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Probably going to come down to rates and wet bulb. While temperatures don't look to climb crazy high Saturday (mid 30's...maybe 37 or 38) with the thickening cloud cover, temperatures aren't going to drop much after sunset. But yeah...certainly a situation where a few miles makes a huge difference. You see that often times along the CT shoreline as well.  

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