Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping for some mid-level magic this far north

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/3/2024 at 3:56 PM, Winter Wizard said:

Confluence is a bit weaker this run, I expect a tick back to the north. 

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Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

[dryslot]

Its out to 109, If you keep things in check, Its an improvement from 06z

[CoastalWx]

Trailing s/w keeps it going. 

[NorEastermass128]

4-8” is a KU after the past couple years of garbage. 

[ineedsnow]

much better run we take!!! lingering snows also

[dryslot]

Closes off a bit late east of the cape.

[ORH_wxman]

There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Actually intensifies low well east of ACK. Lets get that to happen sooner.

[HoarfrostHubb]

TT clowns through 96 have 2 jackpot zones.  S RI and N ORH county over into Middlesex county

 

[Winter Wizard]

  On 1/3/2024 at 3:58 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

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Yep, exactly, all of those pieces are working in tandem which makes this complex. Putting it together, I think these are subtle but noticeable improvements across the board for most in this subforum. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:01 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

TT clowns through 96 have 2 jackpot zones.  S RI and N ORH county over into Middlesex county

 

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I mentioned something similar I think yesterday, but I could see two jackpot areas in this. I was thinking something like just north of the sfc/850 low and then maybe something else with the 700 warm front. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2024 at 3:35 PM, Ginx snewx said:

That east inflow. You should do well.

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I love these easterly flow setups. That’s how this area racks it up . I hope that is real on modeling .

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.

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I can picture a freakout Sunday because the radar is looking bleak then all of a sudden we see a re-blossom of the precip as the trailing s/w makes its way in the picture. 

[ORH_wxman]

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

10" or so in Plymouth, MA

[Winter Wizard]

Hour 108 looks pretty juicy too with the stronger storm just off the Cape. May open up the door for a longer duration event as this continues to throw moisture back toward the coast. Perhaps that could make up for a potential messy start? 

[ineedsnow]

I wonder if there was some sort of data loss into yesterdays models which caused the weaker and south trend?

[Prismshine Productions]

Significant improvement

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

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Hasn't the GGEM been the most reticent to losing this thing all along?  seems that way - but I only see that model at 12z and 00z.  Last night's 00z was only S of the 12z yesterday but was still a more potent low response.   i dunno

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

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Love it. Hope to see the Euro hold. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is a crusher. Looks like the icon 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Somewhere from like Ginx over to Foxboro would easily see a door on the Canadian depiction. Could be a wild day for football 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I love these easterly flow setups. That’s how this area racks it up . I hope that is real on modeling .

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GFS finding the horse. Love when systems go east from the BM for us. Lingering snow.

[Boston Bulldog]

Recent GFS outputs seem to have some substantial convective interference with the SLP track as it traverses southern AL, MS and GA.

I don’t see any other guidance with the SLP being pulled so far south by convection.

EDIT: Looking into this, seems to first surface at the 18Z run yesterday

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

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Just smilin better bump up that NBM output

[ineedsnow]

and also the 10th on the GFS 

[Prismshine Productions]

12z suite trends so far:

GFS: came north
ICON: came north
Canadian: came north
JMA: taller ridge and less confluence
RGEM: only out to 84 but looked solid

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[ineedsnow]

holy**** that's a nutty GFS run    I wonder if this storm being better actually helps that one

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:10 PM, Ginx snewx said:

GFS finding the horse. Love when systems go east from the BM for us. Lingering snow.

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Snows well into Sunday night