Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was from weathermodels.com which is paid....pretty cheap though. I've been considering switching, but I'm giving this site one more winter.

cool - thanks for the heads up.  I don't keep up with that stuff because I arrogantly don't think I need it so up to the date.  haha.  

-then I'm all pissed off when my hot dogs are cooking and I can't take a bite yet

[OceanStWx]

It will also be interesting to see how the NWS forecasts go today. Primarily starting with the NBM is producing better and more consistent forecasts, but the data is a cycle old. So the afternoon forecasts today will be using mostly 00z data fed into the NBM. That means chances of snow will be lower with this NBM run because of the inclusion of the paltry GEFS/GFS (and at this time range it is almost entirely GFS/Euro based). Blindly populating with NBM may lead to artificially lower snow forecast if the 00z guidance was indeed a burp.

[Prismshine Productions]

Slight increase vs. 6z...

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[CoastalWx]

ICON is pasty here and then fluff Sunday morning.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no wonder no one reads my posts.  i'm always an hour late

I think it has more to do with the length of your posts not the timing.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A lot of the models are showing a valley snow shadow . Just something to notice 

That east inflow. You should do well.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It will also be interesting to see how the NWS forecasts go today. Primarily starting with the NBM is producing better and more consistent forecasts, but the data is a cycle old. So the afternoon forecasts today will be using mostly 00z data fed into the NBM. That means chances of snow will be lower with this NBM run because of the inclusion of the paltry GEFS/GFS (and at this time range it is almost entirely GFS/Euro based). Blindly populating with NBM may lead to artificially lower snow forecast if the 00z guidance was indeed a burp.

Not to impugn you guys ( seriously ) but that seems kind of questionable as auto practice?   Tell me that's not what's happening there.

We can't just dump a bunch of raw output mass into a blender - doesn't that utterly defeat the very real possibility that the nuanced solution is more correct? 

I'd argue that latter aspect is pretty prevalent in these fast flows scenarios.  Also whence it's become more apparent that telecon correlators seem to skew relative to results

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

cool - thanks for the heads up.  I don't keep up with that stuff because I arrogantly don't think I need it so up to the date.  haha.  

-then I'm all pissed off when my hot dogs are cooking and I can't take a bite yet

For American models (GFS and NAM), I still think PSU is one of the best combos of decent graphics and fast updates. Faster than TT usually on those two models.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to impugn you guys ( seriously ) but that seems kind of questionable as auto practice?   Tell me that's not what's happening there.

We can't just dump a bunch of raw output mass into a blender - doesn't that utterly defeat the very real possibility that the nuanced solution is more correct? 

I'd argue that latter aspect is pretty prevalent in these fast flows scenarios.  Also whence it's become more apparent that telecon correlators seem to skew relative to results

I don't think so. The NBM is pretty sophisticated, bias correcting a lot of variables at each individual grid point. But it can have limitations when ensemble make big swings or you have dramatic pattern changes. It also struggles with mesoscale features at longer ranges (obviously), but that is what the forecaster is for. Make the right adjustments vs messing around with day 7 sky cover and dewpoints.

The problem before the NBM was that each office was starting with whatever they felt like, and for people who live close to the border of two offices you could have wildly different forecasts. It was also pretty poor practice to try and cherry pick the model of the day, nobody is actually any good at that.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS has 5 to 10 kts more wind speed in the 500 mb wind flags amid a potential field with more compression along along the western flank of the SW trough at 30 hours.

Ha!  beat that

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A lot of the models are showing a valley snow shadow . Just something to notice 

It’s been more like a black hole for two years. I can work with a shadow. Whitening the grass is a huge win at this point. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For American models (GFS and NAM), I still think PSU is one of the best combos of decent graphics and fast updates. Faster than TT usually on those two models.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html

 

Yeah ... I didn't know that about the GFS/NAM specifically with that site, but I do use it first thing in the morning over a cup of coffee for the Euro and Canadian.  I like a coarse/cursory eval to either confirm, deny or piss me off before I dig deeper later in the morning (when I'm supposed to be doing my actual day job...)

haha. 

[ORH_wxman]

Leading wave does look stronger through 54h on the 12z run vs 06z....the trailing wave is also closer....might try and get a quasi-capture on this run like the Euro? We'll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting...looks like the GFS is attempting merger, too

[Typhoon Tip]

F!  Will beat me by 10 sec on that one -

[moneypitmike]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no wonder no one reads my posts.  i'm always an hour late

I think that’s because it might take you an hour to write them.  

[dryslot]

12z GFS, Should be a couple tics better then the 06z run at least.

[Lava Rock]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SNE will be fine on this one, Have patience.

Meh, SNE, except for DIT doesn't even care about retention. Get that track farther north please where we can put the sn to better use

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think that’s because it might take you an hour to write them.  

that's part of it ..  (leave it at that  )

[Prismshine Productions]

Out to hr72, heights are slightly higher off the east coast, this might be a north bump

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[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Meh, SNE, except for DIT doesn't even care about retention. Get that track farther north please where we can put the sn to better use

Let me wave my magic wand.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Out to hr72, heights are slightly higher off the east coast, this might be a north bump

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Really need it less strung out. 

[Prismshine Productions]

hr78, the s/w looks more juiced over the Apps...

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[Typhoon Tip]

Looking 78 hours ... this is more potent.  How much so?  mm 10 .. 15%  but that's likely all that's needed to bring moderate more convincingly so NE PA to S of Boston - speculating

[ineedsnow]

atleast it should snow in SNE this run 

[dryslot]

Decent hit for SCT/RI and SEMA on the GFS

[Prismshine Productions]

hr84: low is north and 2mb stronger compared to hr90 6z

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[Winter Wizard]

Confluence is a bit weaker this run, I expect a tick back to the north. Also a little stronger.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bit better than the previous run.  More tucked

[weatherwiz]

I like the GFS thus far. What could really help this storm overachieve somewhere is the tight baroclinic zone with this. That's a pretty strong temperature gradient in the latitude. I also like how the sfc low is more tightly wrapped up and the 850 low track looks good. You can argue 850 may get going too late but the scale of lift is pretty strong over a large area.