Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The follow up Shortwave tries to regenerate it Sunday pm over the general area with a focus NJ S sne

drops 2-4” Sunday pm for RI to cape with Lollis higher on cape

[dryslot]

The trailing s/w is trying to amplify and bring snow into SNE.

[CT Rain]

What a disasters on the GFS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lol. Not a bad run. Trailing sw ftw.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think this is a big storm, but I would also consider the GFS to be suspect. 

[dryslot]

Garbage Forecasting System.

[Torch Tiger]

4-12"

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/2/2024 at 8:28 PM, Patrick-02540 said:

Over the next three days, it'll go back and forth between funeral home and maternity ward.

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1/2/24

11:09pm

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:05 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The follow up Shortwave tries to regenerate it Sunday pm over the general area with a focus NJ S sne

drops 2-4” Sunday pm for RI to cape with Lollis higher on cape

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Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. 
 

Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have. 

[kazimirkai]

Its at least an interesting event, even if disappointing at the moment.

[RDRY]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:11 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Trailing shortwave is more impressive than the front runner. If it ever sped up slightly, it would be a pretty good event. 
 

Seems to be a lot of issues identifying how much integrity each vortmax is going to have. 

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1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:14 AM, RDRY said:

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

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What’s the benefit ? The pope returns to burn down the house ?

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:05 AM, dryslot said:

The trailing s/w is trying to amplify and bring snow into SNE.

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It's just a weird solution,  You could see that high really strengthening this run, so no surprise.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:07 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think this is a big storm, but I would also consider the GFS as suspect. 

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Folks should erase the 12-18” dream from their memory and enjoy something more realistic and reasonable. 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:14 AM, RDRY said:

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

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[RDRY]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:15 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s the benefit ? The pope returns to burn down the house ?

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That, and the trailing shortwave maybe taking over.

[kazimirkai]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:16 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Folks should erase the 12-18” dream from their memory and enjoy something more realistic and reasonable. 

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lol I don't think that should be too tough at this point. I stopped hoping for 12-18 2 days ago

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:14 AM, RDRY said:

1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.

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Yeah, if you're the Pope...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wankum going on about how the sun angle will be an issue with this storm

[MJO812]

This looks like a Miller A now

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:16 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Folks should erase the 12-18” dream from their memory and enjoy something more realistic and reasonable. 

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Yea, I never gave that a thought.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:20 AM, RDRY said:

That, and the trailing shortwave maybe taking over.

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I don’t think it works that way 

You want it to speed up to catch the energy from the first vort slow down and juice up the broad system. That’s my limited understanding 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wankum going on about how the sun angle will be an issue with this storm

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Lol, an issue on Jan 7...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I never gave that a thought.

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I was thinking 15-20

[40/70 Benchmark]

I swear, some of these OCMs get more and more lackadaisical....they must think everyone is a moron.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I swear, some of these OCMs get more and more lackadaisical....they must think everyone is a moron.

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Honestly most folks watching have a extremely limited understanding , and just drool and nod 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The Canadian end result isn’t terrible, but it’s definitely a good bit south of 12z

[MJO812]

Gefs is even further south , weaker and colder. 

[mannynyc]

GEFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/3/2024 at 4:33 AM, MJO812 said:

Gefs is even further south , weaker and colder. 

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Oof. That’s very south