Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[Snowcrazed71]

It's fun to watch some of the comments. We won't have a final solution until Thursday, Friday time frame. We're going to get that windshield wiper effect for the next few days. I wouldn't be surprised if it ticks up again and back the other way a few times.

[ROOSTA]

There is some serious stuff going on in here.
DON'T MESS WITH "MY" SNOW!
There are so many other events, endeavors in life to get upset about other than the weather.
I don't frequent this forum or participate like I used to. I hear a murmur of clapping in the background.
2 years without a solid event brings out the best in people. NOT   

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

There is some serious stuff going on in here.
DON'T MESS WITH "MY" SNOW!
There are so many other events, endeavors in life to get upset about other than the weather.
I don't frequent this forum or participate like I used to. I hear a murmur of clapping in the background.
2 years without a solid event brings out the best in people. NOT   

 

What are your thoughts Roosta? Plowable incoming? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's fun to watch some of the comments. We won't have a final solution until Thursday, Friday time frame. We're going to get that windshield wiper effect for the next few days. I wouldn't be surprised if it ticks up again and back the other way a few times.

Goal posts will be pretty well set by Thursday 12z. 

[ROOSTA]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What are your thoughts Roosta? Plowable incoming? 

From the trends I 'm thinking fringe effect in SNE. It's a Jersey, Mid-Atlantic event. Still time to change thoughts with the evolving model runs.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Goal posts will be pretty well set by Thursday 12z. 

We hope 

[Boston Bulldog]

Would be foolish to lock in any sort of solution until we see how the trough digs over the W-US and interacts with the surrounding dynamics. The models are having a difficult time placing and orienting the shear vorticity feature behind the trough, which has a direct impact on synoptic scale forcing for our cyclone.

It's an age old adage, but once the SW hits the west coast, improved sampling at the upper levels should lead to a decisive move. While I'm not saying throw out tomorrow's guidance, I would expect a distinct trend that emerges around 0z tomorrow night to be the fate of the system.

[ariof]

I'm probably squinting/wishcasting way too hard but the 84h NAM (12Z Saturday) looks more like the 12Z Canadian than the 12Z or 18Z GFS.

[weathafella]

I’m perfectly ok with an icon solution.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I’m perfectly ok with an icon solution.  

Yup, not bad. Seems to have needed back up a bit vs 18z.

Snowy Sunday. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, weathafella said:

I’m perfectly ok with an icon solution.  

Nice run for SW CT through Boston, a little stingy N of there but maybe some mid-level goodies for some to the NW.  Don't really want to see this trending S tho'...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nice run for SW CT through Boston, a little stingy N of there but maybe some mid-level goodies for some to the NW.  Don't really want to see this trending S tho'...

Important takeaway for me is it wasn’t worse than 18z

[TalcottWx]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be nice to catch a break for once.

Just remember we're all happy, healthy, and experiencing the joys of weather, together. How could you EVER be sad! 

[NotSureWeather]

Slower than previous runs, or am I imagining that?

[wxsniss]

Good disco all. Agree with too many middling chefs being a key impediment and setting a 4-8" ceiling. And not much CCB has chance to develop early enough as we saw in the bigger runs earlier today.

Quick glance at 12z vs 18z GFS, why the jump?

Was wondering if it was different intensity vorticity depicted early in the run and/or a more destructive interaction? I'm still not sure, but you can see differences already at 72hr 12z vs. 66hr 18z on shortwave energy in western Texas. Let's see shortly if that is an early prognostic at 60hr 0z. In any case, doubt we have much certainty before Wednesday PM / Thursday AM.

[Typhoon Tip]

This run appears to have even less of that backside wind max so far 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wonder if this’ll be the gone in 2 runs chapter of this. Ha

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Looks (weak ) “shreddy” to me at hr 84

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually some identity there at 72 hr 

We’ll see but guessin it won’t matter. Not enough 

[Thunderblizzard]

GFS... does not look good.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Not happening at 0z gfs

south 

I.e Garbage for SNE 

[Torch Tiger]

wow

[MJO812]

Cmc is east

[dryslot]

Pretty far south at the surface on the 0z GFS.

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh. I’m crashin. This isn’t worth it and can’t be up late … 

good luck. 

[weathafella]

Spreads light snow into most of same way early-like 0Z Sunday 

[weathafella]

DT may have to lower the aleet 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not happening at 0z gfs

south 

I.e Garbage for SNE 

Unfortunately that weaker sauce scenario may set the table for the 10th to cut hard into the lakes.
Still another day of model runs for this to come around but by tomorrow the sampling should be solid enough for us to have a good idea of what’s going to happen.

[weathafella]

CMC is not strung out at all.  It’s pretty impressive for a quick hitting several inches.