Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be nice to catch a break for once.

Regression is a bitch. There have been hints at a weak piece of crap today 

[Typhoon Tip]

That much continuity change wrt to the S/W identity, at this range and modeling tech, strikes me as something fishy in the assimilation over the eastern Pacific.  Too many S/W in closer succession; the assimilation/interpolation aspects may be splitting the S/W space, given momentum to the lead, giving it away to both the lead and trailing deal on this run.

12z tomorrow this whole mess will be nosing onboard out west.   If we're having this discussion tomorrow at this time I'll have less problem with it. 

That said, this event's governing mechanics were/are susceptible to attenuation for multiple reasons - we've out lined what those all were.  Wave spacing is just one of them.   Model problems with the speed of the flow and having to accelerate that when mid range nears (robbing from embedded S/W) is another.   Now assimilation is also one of those but is different than these other aspects - if that is culprit here, the next run could very well reverse that. 

 

 

 

[tavwtby]

I was just going to say, is this even on land and being sampled better yet? and those off hour runs always tend to loose it some, I'm waiting for the 48" nam run to spit

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh…that’s an old played out narrative for the most part. Historically 00z/12z was more accurate than 06z/18z, but any 06z/18z run tends to be more accurate than the 6hr previous run just because you’re closer to T minus 0.

The off hour opinion of accuracy is so 2000. Remote sensing is so good right now. And if anything we have lost RAOBs and need more remote sensing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh…that’s an old played out narrative for the most part. Historically 00z/12z was more accurate than 06z/18z, but any 06z/18z run tends to be more accurate than the 6hr previous run just because you’re closer to T minus 0.

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

When the 0z comes out, we may still call it a burp run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

I mean I know some have repeated this belief for those “off hour” runs so I’m pretty sure it was legit believed ,and I didn’t think it was an issue of any consequence but I wasn’t super confident so I wanted to know what Mets thought 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. 
 

If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. 
 

We’ll know more at 00z. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean I know some have repeated this belief for those “off hour” runs so I’m pretty sure it was legit believed ,and I didn’t think it was an issue of any consequence but I wasn’t super confident so I wanted to know what Mets thought 

See above. I honestly don’t think there is a significant enough of a reason to warrant those thoughts. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See above. I honestly don’t think there is a significant enough of a reason to warrant those thoughts. 

I kind of joked about it , they just run them for giggles and log in and watch weenie reactions here 

[Damage In Tolland]

What a disaster . Hopefully just GFS being GFS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Here i thought was a good omen this morning when i flattened a gray squirrel with my truck.

Did wolfie swing by to eat it?

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. It’s a defensive coping mechanism at this point. My guess is if it showed 12+, people wouldn’t be calling it an 18z burp run.

No defense mechanism here Brett. Imo 18z many times show’s bizarre solutions a lot. If it had 12-18, I’d say wow that looks nice, but I’m not buying that either, unless 0z comes back with the same look.  So I was ready for the bad run. GFS had a bad run yesterday at 12z too for us. Then it came back. This may too? Or that trailing SW is legit and becomes a player…?  

I’m ok with a 2-4” snow too, gets us on the board, and off the mat as they say.   Not worried either way. Can’t get any worse when you’ve had zero to date, so it’s all good whatever we get. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a disaster . Hopefully just GFS being GFS

As Tippy said, the shortwaves all bunched up and over an area where sampling ( I suppose is not conductive for best accuracy ?) will lead to us being at the end of a fire hose with the end signifying the low position on Sunday am , flopping up and down and left and right .
 

That being said if multiple models show the same trend and do so over next 24 hours obviously that is weighted higher 

[mreaves]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s an ugly solution but there is a way to still get a decent storm if that trailer catches up like the 18z icon. Or we keep the initial s/w stronger. 

I was told you stopped posting. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trailer s/w caught it and prolongs the event into like a 30-36 hour deal. That would be a new twist. 

Over/under on whether it snows longer than it was foggy last week

 

I just read through the last 14 pages of posts......so much excitement in the 12z reactions only to be replaced by the somber tones of winter 22-23.

 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Over/under on whether it snows longer than it was foggy last week

 

I just read through the last 14 pages of posts......so much excitement in the 12z reactions only to be replaced by the somber tones of winter 22-23.

 

 

Ya…this is common when tracking storms for long periods. Comes with the territory unfortunately.  The excitement will be back when the next run show’s more snow.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tippy has /was hammering this attenuating home with violence 

Same here....nothing wrong with 3-6".

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…this is common when tracking storms for long periods. Comes with the territory unfortunately.  The excitement will be back when the next run show’s more snow.  

I'm no stranger to that.....what's new is I wasn't able to see any models/posts until I got home from work.  So I got the whole rollercoaster ride in 30 minutes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well to be fair, 12z showed 12+ for a chunk of SNE so 18z showing the same thing would just be continuity. 
 

If it showed 18+, my guess is most people would just say 18z is on the sauce at happy hour. 
 

We’ll know more at 00z. 

This thing never looked like 12"+ to me.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same here....nothing wrong with 3-6".

No there isn’t but I’m not setting that up as a lower goal post either . 3-6” is fine with me and I’m usually happy when snow is falling . 

[BRSno]

It’s nice to come back here and see nothing has changed ❤️

What kind of duration are we looking at? ~36 hrs?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro 

[DavisStraight]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Did wolfie swing by to eat it?

I ate a squirrel once, my father grew up during the great depression and they used to eat squirrel and turtle, taste like chicken.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, tavwtby said:

I was just going to say, is this even on land and being sampled better yet? and those off hour runs always tend to loose it some, I'm waiting for the 48" nam run to spit

Ha, I was just thinking how this thing isn't inside of 84hr where the NAM can start being the NAM....

One bad omen is this was a Sunday storm down here, now I am seeing this possibly starting Saturday evening. Storm is booking it here, so it probably is outrunning something leading to to the uglier look right now. Hopefully it comes back to something from 0z last night....

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I ate a squirrel once, my father grew up during the great depression and they used to eat squirrel and turtle, taste like chicken.

It’s delicious. 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same here....nothing wrong with 3-6".

That may be generous if these trends continue . Hopefully just a blip 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yikes

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro only to 90 but following same trend as other 18z models 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No there isn’t but I’m not setting that up as a lower goal post either . 3-6” is fine with me and I’m usually happy when snow is falling . 

If you look at the comeback el Nino years, none of then had huge events in early January....and we have a big trough out west with a wave attenuating on approach.