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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Most places near 128 down to you will probably not be higher then 32 unless this come closer towards the Cape. Even with ENE winds. 

It’s cold at 925. Barring a true hugger track, prob gonna need to be within 5-10 miles of water to be above freezing and areas a little further north like BOS might stay below anyway. 

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MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk
dendrite
dendrite

Heavy, heavy reverse psychology this morning. We aren’t falling for it. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s cold at 925. Barring a true hugger track, prob gonna need to be within 5-10 miles of water to be above freezing and areas a little further north like BOS might stay below anyway. 

If it's coming down good, it will wetbulb to 32 or below even at BOS. Part of why I'd like to see the heavier stuff move in. 

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8611Blizz

8611Blizz

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If it's coming down good, it will wetbulb to 32 or below even at BOS. Part of why I'd like to see the heavier stuff move in. 

Yeah noyes already mentioned rates would be key for Boston and South coast. Also mentioned to not think about 6+ at this point around here anyway..

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS has some pretty steep mid-level lapse rates so maybe we can get some thundersnow potential. I always like looking for thundersnow potential in the more dynamic events. If anything, its a great way to sharpen the mind and prepare for May 1st. 

Jim Cantore can relate.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah noyes already mentioned rates would be key for Boston and South coast. Also mentioned to not think about 6+ at this point around here anyway..

SST's slowly coming down to 43-44. Good rates and those cold temps at 925 would be just fine. But 15-20DBZ shit won't do much.

 

Might even get a little mini CJ inland with winds at 925 coming in from the ESE and undoubtedly cold temps at the surface. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I mean I'd be happy with 3-6". I think people need to put a little perspective on things.

But who hasn’t put this into perspective?  I haven’t really seen anybody going big on this yet? Or being unrealistic? I think we’ve all been pretty level headed so far…no?  3-6” is perfect. I’d take that and run.  
 

I mean except for Pope Francis who told us to GFY’s, things have been pretty good. 

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8611Blizz

8611Blizz

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SST's slowly coming down to 43-44. Good rates and those cold temps at 925 would be just fine. But 15-20DBZ shit won't do much.

 

Might even get a little mini CJ inland with winds at 925 coming in from the ESE and undoubtedly cold temps at the surface. 

Yeah he used that phrase too :lol:

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But who hasn’t put this into perspective?  I haven’t really seen anybody going big on this yet? Or being unrealistic? I think we’ve all been pretty level headed so far…no?  3-6” is perfect. I’d take that and run.  
 

I mean except for Pope Francis who told us to GFY’s, things have been pretty good. 

Saw a couple commenting at that idea....calling it garbage etc when euro came out.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This could be a stretch but it's interesting to note majority of the advisories which were in place across the Sierra's have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. The energy coming into the West has been trending stronger. Maybe this would help the likelihood the s/w remains stronger crossing the country and decreases potential of being sheared out?

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Looking promising for the first time in over 1 year. 

Yeah. Highest snowfall last year on a single day was 2.3"

NY and Philly media are making a big deal of the snow streak there (since they had 0.9" on consecutive days in NYC last year) but if you set the bar a bit higher it's the longest streak on record for Boston. 675 days since 2.4-2.9" of snow. 3" snow drought was over two years ending in 2013 (so that 2012 ratter). You need to go up to 4.4" to get a three year streak (ending 1909).

Remember, we're spoiled. Between 1984 and 1992 there was one single daily snowfall over 6" (and it was only 9"). In the last 21 winters, only 3 have failed to drop half a foot in a day, and only 5 haven't cleared the 9" mark. Even counting consecutive days, no storm for those 8 years cleared a foot. Meanwhile single days have cleared a foot 9 of the past 21.

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