Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully the north trend stops today 

Hopefuly it comes another 75-100 miles before it does its ENE shuffle.

[Allsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Hopefuly it comes another 75-100 miles before it does its ENE shuffle.

Hopefully the shuffle starts at the Delmarva 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty damn cool the way the pacific jet just amps up with time with such consistency. Check out the area in Northern Gulf of Mexico. Significant El Niño flexing.

You see a firehouse pointed toward southeast Canada; that air coverages and sinks, filling our Canadian high with maritime tropical air. It doesn’t anchor and the depth of the cold weakens with time.

It’s why a significant -NAO can get neutered with a deep trough in the west and El Niño background.

Pope left our forum and is relegated to NYC . I mean  

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Hopefuly it comes another 75-100 miles before it does its ENE shuffle.

Yeah we're all hoping for that

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Pope left our forum and is relegated to NYC . I mean  

Not sure I’ve ever seen an arctic high “fill with tropical maritime air”….interesting physics and thermodynamics there. Might be a new discovery. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Confluence is good…just as long as you aren’t so close to it that it screws you. Confluence is what helps create awesome fronto bands. 

Its usually a bad thing up here as we're closer to it, That's why i generally don't much care for Miiler A's, One because it wants to slide ENE or even ESE if it doesn't gain enough lat before it happens, And two, Because it usually is LBSW before it does arrive and we end up with an occluded system, That's why i have more invest in the next one, Going to be hard escaping that precip and CAD should come into play.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pope left our forum and is relegated to NYC . I mean  

He’s definitely a brilliant MET that one. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen an arctic high “fill with tropical maritime air”….interesting physics and thermodynamics there. Might be a new discovery. 

Their was never a risk south for this imo…

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay ..sufficed it is to say ( not including the Euro just yet) these 12z blends signal a major snow fall.

I.e., something > than the "moderate ceiling" I assessed.   

However, I'm not ready to sign on just yet - although I really, really appreciate the gesture hahaha

Seriously, this hasn't relayed into the physically realized sounding grid out west, and a high speed ... essentially longitude pattern that is at the far eastern end of the Rossby wave coherency ... those are circumstances not well handled by models.  It makes events very prone to subtle variations - so prone that even in these more modern/well-advance assimilation technologies, there can be very important nuances introduced when that relay happens that take away(add) to this thing.

There's that... but also, the stuff I said about attenuating magnitudes in the models when crossing D5s is still not tested just yet.  I'd like to see this tomorrow morning to be more confident that we're getting through the de-amplification two-step.

I'm just trying for some objective 'what-can-go-wrong' isms here. I don't think we have to reach very far to grab a hold of those.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pope left our forum and is relegated to NYC . I mean  

He may just end NYC’s snow drought 

His geese are flying south and he just pops in forums along the way 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So did the Pope.  

This why that guy has no credibility....he never sticks around and shows any accountability for his brutal calls

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay ..sufficed it is to say ( not including the Euro just yet) these 12z blends signal a major snow fall.

I.e., something > than the "moderate ceiling" I assessed.   

However, I'm not ready to sign on just yet - although I really, really appreciate the gesture hahaha

Seriously, this hasn't relayed into the physically realized sounding grid out west, and a high speed ... essentially longitude pattern that is at the far eastern end of the Rossby wave coherency ... those are circumstances not well handled by models.  It makes events very prone to subtle variations - so prone that even in these more modern/well-advance assimilation technologies, there can be very important nuances introduced when that relay happens that take away(add) to this thing.

There's that... but also, the stuff I said about attenuating magnitudes in the models when crossing D5s is still not tested just yet.  I'd like to see this tomorrow morning to be more confident that we're getting through the de-amplification two-step.

I'm just trying for some objective 'what-can-go-wrong' isms here. I don't think we have to reach very far to grab a hold of those.

I am still waiting for the Tippy 30% redux later this week...

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen an arctic high “fill with tropical maritime air”….interesting physics and thermodynamics there. Might be a new discovery. 

Ya, when I read that I was like, I’m no meteorologist, but I don’t remember ever seeing, or hearing of that happen either…. ?  
 

George did say back on Sunday, that the pope knows his stuff though…..

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This why that guy has no credibility....he never sticks around and shows and accountability for his brutal calls

It’s one thing to make a call that’s different, nothing wrong with that. But when you act like a clown and then disappear when it becomes apparent you are going to be wrong, it’s wicked lame.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This why that guy has no credibility....he never sticks around and shows and accountability for his brutal calls

He could learn a thing or two from Kev.

Just double down on your next call. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s one thing to make a call that’s different, nothing wrong with that. But when you act like a clown and then disappear when it becomes apparent you are going to be wrong, it’s wicked lame.

Yes.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

George did say back on Sunday, that the pope knows his stuff though…..

I think the pope roofied George’s wafer @ communion 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie won’t be coming in like last nite 

Usually uncle goes dry January for a day after NYD.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think the pope roofied George’s wafer @ communion 

Yup…Something isn’t right there with that idea. 

[weatherwiz]

I hope the Tampa Bay Lightning get stranded in Boston Saturday night. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This why that guy has no credibility....he never sticks around and shows and accountability for his brutal calls

It seems He’s most always on the wrong side of most storms. Then gets nasty with posters who ask him what he’s looking at?  

[Modfan2]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Versus your old ‘hood in Woodstock? Yeah it will taint quicker near Ginxy but not by much. He’s in a decent spot far enough off the water for major concerns. I’d think that area would need a true hugger track (like basically over the forks of LI) to have major ptype issues. 
 

Im assuming you’re near Moosup/Sterling? I’m on mobile so I can’t see locations in posts right now. 

Just north in Brooklyn, but sitting in a Valley

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The euro is running , que dryslot for pbp

 

[jbenedet]

You guys have the mute button. Use it.

But you don't...I wonder why?

 

Circus. Echo chamber for imbeciles and terrible forecasters.

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has to come north. It was basically a srn outlier.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You guys have the mute button. Use it.

But you don't...I wonder why?

 

Circus. Echo chamber for imbeciles and terrible forecasters.

 

 

 

 

Take that L 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You guys have the mute button. Use it.

But you don't...I wonder why?

 

Circus. Echo chamber for imbeciles and terrible forecasters.

 

 

 

 

There she is!

[ROOSTA]

Geez it sure busy in this here Forum.
Lovin it cause it keeps me grounded to my roots.
I've been running the Cave program on one of my computers. Interesting software and looks very detailed, with lots to learn.
My worthless obligatory snow maps will be forthcoming closer in to go time.

I don't want anyone to hold their breath.    

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has to come north. It was basically a srn outlier.

Or can be stubborn, Just getting out into range, 06z EPS was a bit north so one would expect the 12z run to be.

[WxWatcher007]

We should be able to rib in good fun. Despite all our differences most of us just want decent winters and good storms.