Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Boston and burbs sweet spot 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

OK good enough lol. Might taint BOS-South .

Gillete could be fun Sunday 

[Torch Tiger]

GGEM looking nice too

[weatherwiz]

Talk about maximizing snowgrowth. This is a pretty dreamy run really. snowfall rates would be pretty intense. 

[CoastalWx]

Deformed in SNH.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12z seems to have slowed down a bit too.

[weathafella]

That’s how you draw up recovery from December rattery.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s beautiful verbatim but I gotta be honest, that’s a little too close for my liking. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Deformed in SNH.

Ray just got acid reflux 

[JKEisMan]

Dang, that’s a nice solution. Happy New Year to all!

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is close to the GFS as well. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deformed in SNH.

I actually wonder (verbatim) if we would see two deform bands in that scenario. 

[Winter Wizard]

Two notable trends here: notably less confluence over Atlantic Canada and a less amplified western US trough. 

[MuddyWx]

we can adjust up from here

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs 12-18” eastern ma 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Two notable trends here: notably less confluence over Atlantic Canada and a less amplified western US trough. 

Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

[CoastalWx]

That would be a paster here with 50kt winds. 

[weatherwiz]

There's been a definite trend for less confluence the past few days...hopefully something that doesn't come back in later runs. Confluence can be super tricky 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs 12-18” eastern ma 

I'd knock that off a bit for you and I. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There's been a definite trend for less confluence the past few days...hopefully something that doesn't come back in later runs. Confluence can be super tricky 

Any weaker though and folks need to prepare for warmer solutions. 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s beautiful verbatim but I gotta be honest, that’s a little too close for my liking. 

exactly!

[BRSno]

Man it’s definitely tempting to book a flight up there for this weekend. Maybe I’ll wait till tomorrow night to bite the bullet. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM similar tho maybe a little south of GFS. These tracks are very similar to that EPS cluster that were NW of the mean…basically going over ACK. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd knock that off a bit for you and I. 

I’ll take a pasty foot here with winds 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any weaker though and folks need to prepare for warmer solutions. 

 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

exactly!

I still lean toward us producing nicely with this one. We probably continue ticking north before the usual last minute shuffle. It’s in a sweet spot for now. 

[radarman]

Start snowing Saturday evening out here, sun by first chair? 

[Winter Wizard]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

Agreed and at a certain point we have to be careful what we wish for. Unless there's a windshield wiper back, I think it's totally plausible for this to keep moving north and west to the point where perhaps BOS, PVD, and HFD are in danger of mixing. Curious to see what the ensembles and the Euro suite show, but I've been more concerned about an inland runner vs. suppression. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

With the western trough weaker it seems to me this may want move a bit flatter so you want that confluence out of the way , so it can gain latitude early  and slide E/ENE

people mentioned a trailing SW also helping, how is that 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll take a pasty foot here with winds 

Just depends on air temp. 33-34 and you'll get a few inches of slop.

[ineedsnow]

beautiful runs so far at 12z!!