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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It only sucks because it’s 138-144 hours out. But OTOH, you theoretically want ensemble guidance to look good.  That way, even if you don’t jackpot, a little trend north or south and you’re still in the game. 

This is why I’ve never understood people being superstitious about being in the bull’s-eye five or six days out.  Who cares as long as you’re seeing a potential snowstorm modeled? 

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17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This is why I’ve never understood people being superstitious about being in the bull’s-eye five or six days out.  Who cares as long as you’re seeing a potential snowstorm modeled? 

It’s a defense type mechanism just tied to folks that literally set the bar as high as the bullseye shows, people also seem to forget things can shift south then north lol.
 

Statistically there is nowhere you really want to be that will average more than the bullseye (several days out ) it’s just you should shave a significant portion of what bullseye shows and set your bar realistically that far out 

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