Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are north too. No surprise there.

Baby steps north before the ENE turn is all we ask. 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS  look much better

[tavwtby]

45 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Wasn't 1/3/06 paste? Maybe not in your area...

I think 1/3/06 was graupel and sleet, with some paste, only reason I remember is cause it's my birthday, always take something on my birthday... not sure what it did further north tho, I was still in Waterbury at the time.

[Snowcrazed71]

34 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 probably 2-3" of heavy virga for many

Really? So, why do you think that? Just curious on your take and reasoning on it being Virga?

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Really? So, why do you think that? Just curious on your take and reasoning on it being Virga?

Well to the post I responded to, on the gfs soundings i looked at, think I saw a 22/11? T/td and wind was kinda nne, going to be some precip shield eaten with that look. Model output will often overdo qpf on outer edge as it's falling  but drying up. Anyway not much value thinking about yet

[dryslot]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are north too. No surprise there.

Better on the 10-11th too.

[H2Otown_WX]

45 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I think 1/3/06 was graupel and sleet, with some paste, only reason I remember is cause it's my birthday, always take something on my birthday... not sure what it did further north tho, I was still in Waterbury at the time.

Well happy early birthday fellow (former) Waterburyian

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GEFS  look much better

Def still a lot of spread NW of the mean

 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get sub 990 east of ACK

[WinterWolf]

1/24/15 was paste(very wet snow with temps 32 or so)…late Friday night into Saturday morning.  About 4-5” worth in my hood. That was the little system that was happening that night when the Euro brought back the big dog for 1/27 at 0z that night.  

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def still a lot of spread NW of the mean

 

Uggh need a south bump 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh need a south bump 

wish for it in the NYC subforum. lol

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh need a south bump 

I need you to rain.

[dendrite]

I just need a little bit of pack in case we get the arctic hounds later in the month. After that tblizz and metfan can steal all they want.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

1/24/15 was paste(very wet snow with temps 32 or so)…late Friday night into Saturday morning.  About 4-5” worth in my hood. That was the little system that was happening that night when the Euro brought back the big dog for 1/27 at 0z that night.  

That was actually an over performer.  Sealed in snow and we were off to the races thereafter.  

[ariof]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That was actually an over performer.  Sealed in snow and we were off to the races thereafter.  

I was in Jackson, NH that day, which got about 1" of snow, and the 12Z model run was the "it's on" run of the GFS and I got very excited. Took a run up to the summit of Madison on a packed snow trail that afternoon with some friends, and had this spectacular view: to the south it was dark and storm behind the summit of Mount Washington, to the north over Quebec it was a blue sky with just some cirrus.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not sure if this was posted pages ago, but nice to see a 6” probability map

(from the 12z Euro so a bit old)

 

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Looked fairly similar to me from 18z.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looked fairly similar to me from 18z.

Prob slight tick SE but same vibe. Still spread to NW

 

[weathafella]

Yeah status quo from eps.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Prob slight tick SE but same vibe. Still spread to NW

 

Works for me. 

[ORH_wxman]

You got that train of lows from near CHH down to a position a bit W of the BM. 

[Supernovice]

What’s the rough timeline on the 7th? Supposed to be on a return flight from Austria on Sunday. Figures.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Works for me. 

Yeah it kind of sucks that the EPS right now is about as good as it gets for most of SNE. The extreme NW edge and far SE areas (moreso them than NW) will quibble but outside of that, it’s a great look. 
 

It only sucks because it’s 138-144 hours out. But OTOH, you theoretically want ensemble guidance to look good.  That way, even if you don’t jackpot, a little trend north or south and you’re still in the game. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def still a lot of spread NW of the mean

 

Even the EURO OP is about a solid foot from the city points N & W.

[kazimirkai]

31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this was posted pages ago, but nice to see a 6” probability map

(from the 12z Euro so a bit old)

 

I'm in the 60% on this map. Hope it validates

[moneypitmike]

47 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this was posted pages ago, but nice to see a 6” probability map

(from the 12z Euro so a bit old)

 

Better than a coin toss for you and I need snow.

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh need a south bump 

I want it more north. EPS looks great.

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Better than a coin toss for you and I need snow.

Yeah. Nice to see at this point.  But these will change.