Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’d say Jan into Feb is probably the hardest time to get paste for you. 

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It should get easier as climo continues to warm in Jan and Feb though. *dodges a wolfie lunge*

[weathafella]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well they don’t need to be huge. Even just like 6-10” or something. 

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The one good paste storm I remember in mid winter was 2/5/16.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs keeps trending the 5th away for Hazey. Tough one. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs keeps trending the 5th away for Hazey. Tough one. 

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It’s long gone for Hazey

euro has been taking it to Bermuda 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:58 PM, weathafella said:

The one good paste storm I remember in mid winter was 2/5/16.

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MLK 2010 was good in ORH (not so much for Tolland…lol)…those pics I posted of 8-10” of paste triggered Kevin into an all time melt. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs keeps trending the 5th away for Hazey. Tough one. 

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Yeah, but the Euro on the 7th has a consolation prize for him.

[dryslot]

Don't think the 18z GFS going to look like the 12z run, SLP down in GA is a little more amped.

[MJO812]

Gfs coming a bit north 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:06 PM, dryslot said:

Don't think the 18z GFS going to look like the 12z run, SLP down in GA is more amped.

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Definitely. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:06 PM, dryslot said:

Don't think the 18z GFS going to look like the 12z run, SLP down in GA is more amped.

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Incoming , at least for S SNE

Much better precip Into Ohio valley on Saturday 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

MLK 2010 was good in ORH (not so much for Tolland…lol)…those pics I posted of 8-10” of paste triggered Kevin into an all time melt. 

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The memories are just flooding back. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:08 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Incoming , at least for SNE

Much better precip Into Ohio valley on Saturday 

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Don't think it makes it up here this run, But its a bit north of 12z.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Crushing for upper mid Atlantic 

CT does ok 

[ORH_wxman]

Prob a scraper for SNE. 

[dryslot]

Congrats capitol weather gang.

[weathafella]

18Z GFS hits Philly and just south of NYC with the good stuff but not further north.

[dryslot]

An improvement over that abysmal 12z run though, All you can ask for now.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

That big high held on to the end . Sorta blasted its payload down off Delmarva 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:12 PM, dryslot said:

An improvement over that abysmal 12z run though, All you can ask for now.

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Yep. Let’s get another tick at 00z. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:13 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Let’s get another tick at 00z. 

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Hopefully not another tock instead.........lol

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/1/2024 at 9:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Give me an example of previous ones. Other than Dec ‘92. Huge pasters aren’t THAT common. They typically are smaller events. 
 

Anyways, there’s a long ways to go in this one. Could easily fall apart but today was a good day for model runs since we’re getting inside 6 days now where you’d expect things to start falling apart if they are going to. Hopefully we can keep this strong on guidance for the next couple days and that will get us inside 100 hours. 
 

 

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Wasn't 1/3/06 paste? Maybe not in your area...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:13 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Let’s get another tickle at 00z. Stall 3?

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Model watching is always the best 

[dryslot]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:15 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Model watching is always the best 

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My fav actually.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:15 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

Wasn't 1/3/06 paste? Maybe not in your area...

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Yes it was. Good memory on that one. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:15 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Model watching is always the best 

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Some wouldn’t have said that a few days ago lol

[DJln491]

gfs basically back to where it was at 6z.  Hopefully 12z was an outlier and it can continue to trend north

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:10 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Crushing for upper mid Atlantic 

CT does ok 

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 probably 2-3" of heavy virga for many

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:23 PM, DJln491 said:

gfs basically back to where it was at 6z.  Hopefully 12z was an outlier and it can continue to trend north

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It's bit theoretical but a deterministic problem with this 7th system is that it is at the far east end of the R-wave signal.  That's like the flop end of a hose - metaphor obviously. 

This system reaches the greatest constructive interference depth actually back around 100W and is attenuating in the deep layer, buuuut ...it doesn't encounter the baroclinic instability/'gun powder' atmosphere until it reaches the EC.. It's not in ideal phase wrt to the super synoptic wave signature.  Systems that collocate these two aspects, greatest feed-back with developmental cross-sections are actually comparatively easy to call.  I know it's hard to believe after the last 5 years but we've actually had those on the EC before - easier calls from 6 days out actually can happen.

Because this is developing at the attenuating end it doesn't have the surrounding mass field to anchor it from "feeling" tug and pulls from surrounding perturbation in the flow.  You get these run to run shot gun tracks.  

Just to re-iterate ... the main difference between all these solutions really hasn't been in the magnitude of the system. They're all middling Nor'easterns with perhaps moderate impact ... the problem is where precisely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/1/2024 at 10:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it was. Good memory on that one. 

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East winds killed my area in that. 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are north too. No surprise there.