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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2024


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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

What is the NWS average for your location? I believe im right around 50" but my 22 yr running average is 54.1"

Well the NWS numbers are not overly trust worthy IMO for KMGJ because there is not an official observer there but that number is 42.2" while my running seasonal average is 46.8"

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3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

A solid 8 hours of snowfall today, no complaints from me. 1.4" melted down to .10, nice ratios for these days. Anyone else nerdy enough to have ratios to share?

Nope. I just assume every storm is 7:1 and go from there. Lol

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Posting here since this is currently not a likely risk for NYC.  Multiple models and ensembles have both these events pegged. Early next week is WAA and then the one lager Sunday or next Monday is with a a decent positive tilt 5H trough passing eastward through our area...somewhat similar to Fridays event. Long ways off but 00z/21 EPS has it.  I can live with what is appended below. 

 

Massachusetts-northern CT Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning: 1-3" from periods of snow with some sleet possible and this should change go all ice Wednesday morning with delays likely-at least for the hill towns. Treated roads should be just wet in the valleys after 9AM Wednesday. Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. For now this is shaping up as a potentially extensive-moderate event Sunday night-Monday but uncertainty so don't take it to the bank yet. However, if making plans-suggest factor in possible delays.

Northern NJ-Poconos -southeast NYS 9 AM Tuesday-9AM Wednesday. Periods of sleet-snow Tuesday changing to maybe one tenth inch glaze Tues night-Wednesday morning. Icing not major but certainly a hazard since the ground is frozen. Delays-cancels-especially Poconos-Sussex County NJ and se NYS Tuesday night-Wednesday morning with possible early dismissals Tuesday midday. Temps may briefly be above freezing Tuesday but once the precip starts it drops back below freezing through 9AM Wednesday. Treated roads should be just wet but more careful winter driving is suggested. Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. For now this is shaping up as a potentially extensive-light to moderate wintry event Sunday night-Monday but uncertainty so don't take it to the bank yet. However, if making plans-suggest factor in possible delays.

 

Screen Shot 2024-01-21 at 5.45.48 AM.png

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Everything posted at about 7AM looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM).  Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening.  Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 80%  sure. Thread pending updated 12z ensemble guidance.

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Everything posted at about 7AM looks pretty much in line with our new daytime modeling (12z/21 HRRR, RGEM and NAM).  Think its going to get slippery pretty quick on Tuesday I84 corridor, especially afternoon-evening.  Lets see if modeling holds onto the ONSET speed of sleet to snow during the daylight hours Tuesday. This may be threaded late today or tomorrow morning as it looks pretty good to get down to I80--- not quite 100% yet on I80 but am 80%  sure. Thread pending updated 12z ensemble guidance.

Thanks Walt for the heads up.  OKX mentions the possibility of the wintery mix for us folks inland in their AFD. A section of Upton’s is below.

Thermal profiles look just warm enough such that anything that falls
Tuesday morning is probably rain. After some wet-bulbing, precip
type gets tricky starting in the afternoon in addition to an
elevated warm layer pushing in from the SW. Further complicating the
forecast is a period of potential low level cold advection over the
eastern zones during the night as the stationary front sags south
and winds flip NE to E. Won`t go into details, but currently have
chances of freezing rain, sleet and snow for inland areas. Rain
elsewhere
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Periodic sleet-freezing rain-snow through Wednesday morning with delays in the hill towns due to at home conditions but main treated roads wet.  

Then, a light to moderate period of ice-snow potential exists 11PM Saturday - 11AM Monday with rain changing to ice and eventually a little snow. This is probably a more significant event upcoming for I84 than whatever happens the next 24 hours. 

Potential for totals of 4 inches of snow between now and next Monday morning and one tenth inch  of glaze. 

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