gravitylover Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm dreading the thought of hot rain falling into a bunch of wet snow. Gimme winter or gimme drought! aargghh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Well, the Euro upped the QPF along with the GFS, this weekend is getting even more interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I think we'll see some snow at the start but that storm has cutter written all over it. We'll see what happens though. The 12z GFS got more interesting for this weekend, so we'll see if the other models start getting stronger as well of if it was a fluke GFS run. Much more interesting the 12z vs. the 06z. Could be that more sampling has been added. We’ll see what the 18z shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 39 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I'm dreading the thought of hot rain falling into a bunch of wet snow. Gimme winter or gimme drought! aargghh Gravity that, by far, is one of the more interesting takes on Patrick Henry’s statement. Stay well and calm. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Well, the Euro upped the QPF along with the GFS, this weekend is getting even more interesting. So the latest Euro showing 3.5-4.5" of QPF for both storms by next Wednesday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: So the latest Euro showing 3.5-4.5" of QPF for both storms by next Wednesday... Hopefully we get enough snow from the 1st event to absorb the rain from the 2nd event to help lower the flooding risk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The second storm is all about the possibility of the first locking in that monster hp the models have flirted with. But, I like the fact that all of the posters in this forum look at reality and prepare accordingly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, rclab said: Gravity that, by far, is one of the more interesting takes on Patrick Henry’s statement. Stay well and calm. As always …. I knew you'd appreciate that 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: The second storm is all about the possibility of the first locking in that monster hp the models have flirted with. That's the trick right. Get high and stay high 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Flurries in the air again today so we should have four days in a row with snowflakes… be still my beating heart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Flurries in the air again today so we should have four days in a row with snowflakes… be still my beating heart Rest that heart , it will get a workout soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 My nws forecast is up to 8-12” but I can’t remember the last time I didn’t have a negative bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Rest that heart , it will get a workout soon Can you post the URL for these maps. I can never find them ? I need them for Dutchess County. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Just now, wishcast_hater said: Can you post the URL for these maps. I can never find them ? I need them for Dutchess County. . https://www.weather.gov/aly/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Thanks bro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This graphic says I am getting 8"-12" but the Winter Storm Warning issued for Dutchess County says 4"-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: This graphic says I am getting 8"-12" but the Winter Storm Warning issued for Dutchess County says 4"-8". I am in Dutchess and I saw 6-10 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z GFS looked nice for us interior folk. Actually bumped up precip amounts slightly. I think we are looking at 8-12" areawide (Orange,,Ulster,Dutchess,Sullivan) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 My p&c is pretty locked in for me to pick up around 8-9”, probably would expect MSV-Rock Hill elevations and higher to get double digits and then it all gets washed away (and worse considering flooding) by Wednesday with temperatures spiking to mid 40s. Such is life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 My p&c is down to 4-8” which I think is more reasonable than the previous 8-12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Higher amounts of around 12 inches are possible in the eastern Catskills. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. This graphic doesn't match up, I am not complaining about a 2" difference, just complaining about lack of continuity on the NWS. I am in southeast Dutchess BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'm hedging toward a healthy 4-6 in the valley. The show is probably wrapping up by 12 am Sunday which doesn't leave a ton of time to pile it up, but should still be a nice appetizer for later in the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: I'm hedging toward a healthy 4-6 in the valley. The show is probably wrapping up by 12 am Sunday which doesn't leave a ton of time to pile it up, but should still be a nice appetizer for later in the month Hoping closer to 6 or 7, but the valley usually ends up on the lower end of the number range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At this stage (5 miles west of the river, 600ft asl) anything less than 6 will be a disappointment, expectations are for 8-10, anything over 10 is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: At this stage (5 miles west of the river, 600ft asl) anything less than 6 will be a disappointment, expectations are for 8-10, anything over 10 is gravy. My expectations has been 4-8" here for days, I see no reason to change that. I did mention to folks that there is room to move upward a touch but I'm just not confident enough in it until now casting starts in earnest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: My expectations has been 4-8" here for days, I see no reason to change that. I did mention to folks that there is room to move upward a touch but I'm just not confident enough in it until now casting starts in earnest. What is your elevation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: At this stage (5 miles west of the river, 600ft asl) anything less than 6 will be a disappointment, expectations are for 8-10, anything over 10 is gravy. 8-10" is my expectation here as well. Im sure a few spots throughout the area will hit 12" but it should be isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GFS I know its strictly for entertainment purposes but the GFS along with other guidance continues to increase amounts in the immediate area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, snywx said: 8-10" is my expectation here as well. Im sure a few spots throughout the area will hit 12" but it should be isolated. Here East of the river, I will be happy if we can achieve 6 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: What is your elevation there? 385 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: 385 That explains why snywx who I believe is only a couple of miles from you seems to do bette snow wise. I believe he's at 850 feet. It can make a noticeable difference as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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