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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2024


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Decided to post more clearly I84 corridor considerations that I send to a FB group earlier in the day.  Less uncertainty what I'm thinking-ball parking.  All ensembles have snow for us Fri-Sat.  How much we dont know.  Also ensemble 24 hr qpf has something going for us on Christmas Day but if its rain-ice-snow?
 
I84 corridor Wednesday night-early Thursday. Rain changes to wet snow on I84 northward with several inches possible NORTHERN Poconos, northern Orange County across the Northwest Hills of CT and much of the western and northern Massachusetts. Meanwhile southern Poconos from Mt Cobb south into nw NJ and Orange County of NYS, as well as Hartford-Ashford... mostly rain, may end as a trace to 1/2" snow early Thursday morning? The accumulation edge is uncertain so this may change as we move closer to Wednesday. 
 
I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of snow likely with 1/2-3" Poconos-se NYS-nw NJ and Old Forge NY, while the range of snowfall potential increases in CT-MA to between 1-6" in association with coastal low pressure development. FAR too early to be sure what happens except that the coldest air of the season so far should invade here Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd , with possible wind chill values down to 10 below, except 20 below Old Forge. 
 
Christmas Day: Small chance for a period of mixed wintry precip. 
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Good Wednesday morning everyone-Dec 18. 

I84 corridor winter featured through Christmas Day 

Entire I84 Corridor Friday-Saturday: Periods of light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours Friday, there would probably be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story if it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. Just a little too early for me to be sure but I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS Friday night and prepare for possible slower travel. The coldest air of the season, so far, will invade here by Sunday and Monday the 22nd-23rd with wind chill zero to 10 below Sunday morning.. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring.

I95 corridor from Baltimore to Philly and NYC Friday night-Saturday morning: Probably minor travel impact at worst but a good chance that you'll see your first slight measurable snow of the season... if it occurs, probably less than 1", enough to make spirits brighter.  Just checking the 06z EC before starting a thread. 

Christmas Day I84 and Old Forge NY: Chance for a period of mixed wintry precipitation.

 

deleted reference to OF (I think I got em all.). 735A

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27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@wdrag I just want to make sure that you realize that Old Forge is ~250 miles north of here. A few times now you've used it and IME the weather up there isn't even remotely similar to here so I don't understand why.

My mistake...  I present a daily FB post to members and Old Forge is part of that group.  MY MISTAKE on deleting references to OF.

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11 hours ago, wdrag said:

My mistake...  I present a daily FB post to members and Old Forge is part of that group.  MY MISTAKE on deleting references to OF.

I believe Old Forge holds the record low for New York State of -52. 
Checked myself on that it definitely was Old Forge. February 1976. 

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Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19.

Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is on the way for portions of the I84 corridor from probably two minor events. Each could have a moderate travel impact, but where that is-yet to be determined. 

Entire I84 Corridor  tomorrow-Saturday MIAINLY 11AM-11AM-a 24 hour period: Occasional light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours tomorrow, there probably will be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story when it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS, especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Prepare for possible slower travel. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring.

THIS IS A CHANGE: Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. 

Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border and eastern Massachusetts. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-19 at 4.24.32 AM.png

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Screen Shot 2024-12-19 at 5.03.43 AM.png

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50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Thursday morning everyone-Dec 19.

Similar to yesterday's post. A white Christmas is on the way for portions of the I84 corridor from probably two minor events. Each could have a moderate travel impact, but where that is-yet to be determined. 

Entire I84 Corridor  tomorrow-Saturday MIAINLY 11AM-11AM-a 24 hour period: Occasional light snow likely with 1/2-3", especially elevations. If it snows during the midday hours tomorrow, there probably will be pavement melting in the valleys. A different slippery story when it occurs Friday night-Saturday morning. I think pavement treatments will.be needed for northern NJ/eastern PA se NYS, especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Prepare for possible slower travel. If you have travel plans Friday-Saturday, still worthy of monitoring.

THIS IS A CHANGE: Noon Christmas Eve (24th) - Noon Christmas Day I84 corridor: Looks to me like periods of snow and possibly sleet along and north of I80 in PA-NJ to at least I90 NYS-MA. Just too uncertain but several more inches of snow could accumulate by the time Santa has accomplished the mission Christmas morning. Even NYC might get a little snow. 

Maps added are up through 4AM. The NWS model blender snow amount forecast for our area and also a statistical probability of more than 1" of snow and the NWS snowfall forecast before their 4AM issuance. I did add statistical probabilities for Central Park NY which are MUCH lower than what will happen along the NYS-NJ border and eastern Massachusetts. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-19 at 4.24.32 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-12-19 at 4.37.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-12-19 at 5.03.43 AM.png

Good morning Walt and thank you for the detailed post. What a treat it’ll be for most of us if this pans out. 

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