Interior NW & NE Burbs 2024

[hudsonvalley21]

44 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not a good evening in Greenwood Lake as the fire jumped the line. There are evacuations and an urgent request went out for any local fuel company that can refuel an engine that's on the fire line protecting homes. 

I’m kind of surprised that it jumped the line. Not sure what the winds are down there currently, winds were around 10-15 most of the day IMBY. Could be possible that it’s burning under ground and popped up past the back burn areas, only speculating. Haven’t seen any recent videos from the area. Hopefully they can keep ahead of it.

[IrishRob17]

59 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I’m kind of surprised that it jumped the line. Not sure what the winds are down there currently, winds were around 10-15 most of the day IMBY. Could be possible that it’s burning under ground and popped up past the back burn areas, only speculating. Haven’t seen any recent videos from the area. Hopefully they can keep ahead of it.

I was surprised as well. There are definitely issues with fires in the ground as it's been so dry. The photos I've seen this evening on social media, which can be tricky because of exposure time, show lots of fire moving north, south, and west, which is also crazy to me. I'm guessing the air tankers were just rumors this week because I've seen nothing about them in operation. 

[hudsonvalley21]

15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I was surprised as well. There are definitely issues with fires in the ground as it's been so dry. The photos I've seen this evening on social media, which can be tricky because of exposure time, show lots of fire moving north, south, and west, which is also crazy to me. I'm guessing the air tankers were just rumors this week because I've seen nothing about them in operation. 

With the fires jumping and moving and moving in several directions could be from underneath spread and elevation changes. They called a couple of Rockland County units in tonight as well. I believe that the evacuation became mandatory from previously being voluntary in one area. Also haven’t heard of the air tankers arriving also. The water drops of 350 gallons each take care of the surface but don’t penetrate far into the ground.

[IrishRob17]

No houses lost last night, great job. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

No houses lost last night, great job. 

Let’s hope the rain will come in Wednesday night. Yup,  Excellent job in Greenwood Lake last night. 

[hudsonvalley21]

A section of Upton’s AFD

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models in good agreement with an anomalously deep closed upper low (2-3 standard deviations below normal heights) digging into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Wed Night into Thu, lifting into the NE US on Friday, and then stalling over the NE US into the weekend. Global models have trended over the past 24 hours with a weaker surface low development over the Great Lakes and a stronger secondary low taking shape right over us late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will therefore be the period when rainfall chances will be at the highest. Can`t even rule out an isolated thunderstorm with the strengthening low center passing through coinciding with a little elevated instability. NBM probability of 1+ inches of rain Weds night through Thursday has increased to 30-50%, with deterministic models in pretty good agreement that we pick up 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain during this time.

[BxEngine]

Hook mountain and rockland lake st park burning now. Shit. On my way home from hershey, guess ill head right there 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Hook mountain and rockland lake st park burning now. Shit. On my way home from hershey, guess ill head right there 

Just saw that fire. Who would've thought after last year we'd all be hoping for rain. 

[IrishRob17]

Live feed from Greenwood Lake 
https://www.youtube.com/live/uwYgfXxWdSA?si=WzSBge4aDNc8nwb9

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Any chance we're looking at some snow for Thursday night? Seems like the chances for at least a couple of inches in the towns above 500 feet are a realistic possibility. Above 1000 feet even better, maybe several inches. 

[IrishRob17]

48 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any chance we're looking at some snow for Thursday night? Seems like the chances for at least a couple of inches in the towns above 500 feet are a realistic possibility. Above 1000 feet even better, maybe several inches. 

The clown maps even show snow for us flatlanders. 

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any chance we're looking at some snow for Thursday night? Seems like the chances for at least a couple of inches in the towns above 500 feet are a realistic possibility. Above 1000 feet even better, maybe several inches. 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  A decent soaking to tamp down the fires before dreaming of a snowy december.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any chance we're looking at some snow for Thursday night? Seems like the chances for at least a couple of inches in the towns above 500 feet are a realistic possibility. Above 1000 feet even better, maybe several inches. 

I think at the very least flakes in the air for most in these parts 

[hudsonvalley21]

4 hours ago, Hitman said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  A decent soaking to tamp down the fires before dreaming of a snowy december.

Absolutely, either rain,snow,or white rain, as long as it’s not a heavy short timed event. A slow soaking would be great to soften up the bone dry hard surface.  1-2” of QPF as of todays 18z runs thru Friday is great. Hopefully they hold serve.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 hours ago, Hitman said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  A decent soaking to tamp down the fires before dreaming of a snowy december.

At least some snow is not only looking possible but likely Thursday night. Some of the clown maps for NW Orange and Sullivan for Thursday night are double digits, RIDIC probably but certainly not impossible.
 

 As long as we get a decent amount of qpf I don't care what form it comes in. Of course if I had a choice I'd make it white.  

[eduggs]

9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any chance we're looking at some snow for Thursday night? Seems like the chances for at least a couple of inches in the towns above 500 feet are a realistic possibility. Above 1000 feet even better, maybe several inches. 

If the model consensus is right, I think we could be looking at 4-6" above 1000ft in Orange County or the near vicinity. Poconos, NNJ, Hudson Highlights, Taconics, and Catskills all have a good shot at snow. The GFS, ECM, and CMC are all homing in on a narrow area of significant wraparound precipitation into a sub 534 thickness field.

The upper level evolution is pretty impressive. The 18z ECM in particular was incredible. There's a banding signal as well as the potential for a stall and long duration precipitation pivot. Exactly where any banding sets up will probably be the difference between some slush and several inches of snow. I'd like to be in the western Catskills or extreme NEPA for this.

[eduggs]

Red flags for snow for most of us are a downsloping wind trajectory and the brunt of cold air going south of us into the mid-Atl and only slowly oozing in. But there is plenty of model support for wet snowflakes even outside of the hill towns.

This is the first interesting setup since last March or maybe February. Heck it might even be more interesting than anything we had all last winter.

[crossbowftw3]

Singing back in to start another round of winter--and what a good time to do so.

 

Thursday-Friday is one of those razor's edge setups that, at least right now, I wouldn't anticipate seeing much outside of white grass at my elevation. The rain takes bigger precedent, for now.

[snywx]

7 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Singing back in to start another round of winter--and what a good time to do so.

 

Thursday-Friday is one of those razor's edge setups that, at least right now, I wouldn't anticipate seeing much outside of white grass at my elevation. The rain takes bigger precedent, for now.

I would love to be in Rock Hill for this one.. 1500' of elevation should benefit them lovely with this setup 

[crossbowftw3]

7 hours ago, snywx said:

I would love to be in Rock Hill for this one.. 1500' of elevation should benefit them lovely with this setup 

today's model runs might make things interesting even at my elevation, still can't yet count on it though but it would not be shocking to see MSV elevation and up pull a nice event from this. Far northern Sullivan will be in line for a good shot of snow from this for sure

[crossbowftw3]

This got even more interesting.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1204 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

NYZ057-062-210115-
/O.CAN.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.241121T2100Z-241123T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KBGM.WS.A.0007.241121T2100Z-241122T2100Z/
Delaware-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello
1204 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 8
  inches possible in the higher elevations and up to 4 inches in
  lower elevations.

* WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Plan on
  slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

[Hitman]

Half inch here

[gravitylover]

.7

[IrishRob17]

.60 and slowly counting.

[snywx]

.70”

[hudsonvalley21]

.93   45/43.  Light rain currently.

[hudsonvalley21]

A section of Upton’s AFD,

CAMs and regional models have diverged somewhat on the position of the movement of the low tonight. Some of the CAMs bring the center of the low just north of our area and a little to the east into the early night before having it retrograde to our west in Upstate New York while other just stick with tracking the low to our northwest. The more northeasterly track, regardless will only occur this evening into early tonight before bumping west. With the low tracking north of us this evening, cooler air will take over this evening with temperatures near or below freezing in interior locations north and west of NYC. Prior to this, temperatures will be in the 40s. A transition from rain to snow is expected this evening for interior areas north and west of NYC, but given the warm temperatures prior, snowfall may struggle to accumulate. Its possible we could see a few heavy bands of snow with snowfall rates around 1-2"/hr this evening into early tonight indicated by the 00Z HREF and a saturated dendritic growth zone before the precip gets cut off by a dry pocket of air that moves in when the low retrogrades westward into upstate New York. This dry air is easiest to see when looking at model soundings or at model 700 mb relative humidity. Higher elevations in interior locations northwest of NYC will most likely see accumulations of 1-4 inches. Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties are now highlighted in the HWO for this potential. However, most of the interior northwest of NYC is at lower elevation and only a trace to 0.5" is expected due to warmer ground melting the snow and a short window for snow banding before the precip becomes much lighter from dry air intrusion. Snow ratios are also expected to be on the low side, further contributing to lower snow accumulations compared to what some of the CAMs are producing with 10:1 Snowfall.

[eduggs]

This is one of those weird cases where mid elevations near places like New Milford, NJ or Chester, NY could get basically nothing or 6"... and it wouldn't be a surprise either way.

The HDRPS is printing out well over an inch of precipitation after the column can support snow for much of Sussex, northern Passaic, and Orange counties. Even Rockland and western Putnam get in on the action. I don't particularly trust this model, but it's not entirely alone.

Where does the banding set up tonight and does anything accumulate during the day on Friday under the ULL? My guess is Friday is mostly an elevation thing, but intense banding associated with a still deepening SLP tonight is the wild card. Satellite and radar look pretty good so far IMO.

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is one of those weird cases where mid elevations near places like New Milford, NJ or Chester, NY could get basically nothing or 6"... and it wouldn't be a surprise either way.

The HDRPS is printing out well over an inch of precipitation after the column can support snow for much of Sussex, northern Passaic, and Orange counties. Even Rockland and western Putnam get in on the action. I don't particularly trust this model, but it's not entirely alone.

Where does the banding set up tonight and does anything accumulate during the day on Friday under the ULL? My guess is Friday is mostly an elevation thing, but intense banding associated with a still deepening SLP tonight is the wild card. Satellite and radar look pretty good so far IMO.

Some of the recent guidance has some intense banding tonight. Most of it is right through Orange County too. With those rates I think you may see some accumulation down to the lowest elevations ie near the Hudson. My guess would be 2-4” at 500’, 4+ aoa 750’, 6+ aoa 1000’

[eduggs]

I'm thinking the towns on the NW side of the Hudson Highlands ridge do pretty well: Vernon, NJ, to Warwick, NY to Monroe, NY etc...

There's an upslope-downslope component visible on the meso models favoring the NW terrain for highest QPF and lowest temps.