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January Discobs 2024


George BM
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AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming event-

For Tuesday and Wednesday...A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S. during this time frame, and it will drive a powerful surface low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of 50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 70-100 knots. The guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water (1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk.

The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead of the cold front. Some wind headlines will likely be needed especially for the coastal areas, although strong low-level warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least some of the wind from mixing down to the surface. However, with the low-level winds being southeasterly, there will likely be an area of stronger winds along the immediate coast, as a result of the decreased friction over the open waters. Overall, there is the potential for a period of strong to even locally damaging winds especially closer to the coast.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

A co-worker - "Man, it's chilly out there"

Me double-checking temp - "It's 48 degrees friend, ON JANUARY 8TH"

Maybe it's chilly for Birmingham, AL. Maybe. This whole area is being de-conditioned to...actual winter. 

Been saying this for years. And doesn’t help when local media Mets use similar descriptors/adjectives to talk about normal (or even above normal!) temperatures.

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3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

A co-worker - "Man, it's chilly out there"

Me double-checking temp - "It's 48 degrees friend, ON JANUARY 8TH"

Maybe it's chilly for Birmingham, AL. Maybe. This whole area is being de-conditioned to...actual winter. 

It's all relative though. If it feels cold relative to what it's been, then they'll say it's cold. If it's actually been cold for a while and it gets to normal or slightly above, people will say it feels nice.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Been saying this for years. And doesn’t help when local media Mets use similar descriptors/adjectives to talk about normal (or even above normal!) temperatures.

it is kind of humorous that lows in the mid-upper 30s are referred to as "cold!! bundle up in the morning!!" by local mets on TV (maybe Doug and Topper excepted) - in mid winter.

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20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it is kind of humorous that lows in the mid-upper 30s are referred to as "cold!! bundle up in the morning!!" by local mets on TV (maybe Doug and Topper excepted) - in mid winter.

Next Wed Morning at +6  will be a little more in tune.

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