NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Replying here in banter...I would've thought, based on your (presumed/assumed) age, that you would have NO idea who Monty Hall, let alone what "Let's Make a Deal" is...but kudos to you, good sir. I have an even greater respect for your cultural references now. Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating. Oh, and you're NOT wrong....we always want the door that we ultimately didn't choose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My college friends in Hamburg NY have 5-6 feet of snow on the ground. Incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Bring back the Fozz emoji for good vibes leading to an Epic February and March!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads... Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once. People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once. People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!! Yeah, I feel ya. Still fun to switch...and learn...between all of these convos. And even after a couple decades, I've got a lot to learn... That animated GIF isn't an exaggeration, either...I keep at least one AmWx thread open on my work laptop AND another on my personal Chromebook to my left. Shit moves too fast these days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating. As usual, Wikipedia has a detailed write-up, perhaps too detailed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 38 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: ME...currently attempting to monitor the Long Range, Jan Discobs, Jan19 STORM Discobs, and Banter threads... Its funny. I dont even look at the LRT when there is a legit threat. Once the snow starts falling I will glance in there. Once the storm is over I am all in that thread. Until the next threat thread is opened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its funny. I dont even look at the LRT when there is a legit threat. Once the snow starts falling I will glance in there. Once the storm is over I am all in that thread. Until the next threat thread is opened. Yeahhhhh, but you're a long-timer, who knows what he's looking at, looking for (based on your climo), and can interpret it all, based on the various models/discussions. I'm still working on all that...in PBP on the short-term threats, as well as in the long range convos. I'll occasionally attempt comic relief...but that's a bit of a cop-out. As someone who wanted to be a met from a very young age (but failed to have the requisite STEM abilities/acumen)...I've enjoyed every minute checking in here for well over the past decade to observe, listen and learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Those who doubt Nino's In the Mid Atlantic pay the price for their stupidity. I'm moving this to the banter thread so not to clog up the obs thread. We still have a long way to go to hit climo for some areas. I'm at 8.25 for the season. My average is almost 30. It's even higher in Nino years. If I get 3 or 4 inches tomorrow I'll be around 12 for the season. I have a long way to go just to get to climo. If we punt most or all of next week it's almost February. Alot of work to do in 4 to 6 weeks. Sure it can happen. It could happen with just 1 storm. This week has been great! I'm loving it! Don't get me wrong, but if your at around 10" mark heading into February was this the December and January you invisioned back in November? Again I'm so happy for the snow we have gotten. I only had 2" last season which is crazy for Smithsburg at 750ft in elevation at the M/D line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: I'm at 8.25 for the season. My average is almost 30 I am the exact same. Tomorrow will make 6 days of snow in the first half of Jan for me. And I will be double digits somewhere. So over 30% of climo with our best snow month left to come. I give ZERO weight to long term models. They are literally worthless. They flip flop constantly. My entire forecast was on climo. I have NEVER had a below normal nino winter here. It just has not happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Lake effect is very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Oshie hat trick! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Lake effect is very cool 74.8 Bwahahahahahahahahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: We've been on the other side of this map way too many times. Hey! I hope you’ve been well! 4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Lake effect is very cool Regret I didn’t chase that one. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 hours ago, WVsnowlover said: From my Facebook memory from 8 years ago today That was the most fun I've ever had model tracking, the entire week leading up to that storm. Can't believe it was 8 years ago already. We may never see something like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Snowshoe is getting destroyed https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Extrapolation of radars makes me wag 2.5 to 3 inches Dale City, 4 inches Washington DC, 4 to 5 inches Cleveland Park in DC and about 6 to 8 inches in Central MD. Eight to 12, maybe 14 in the mountains with this. I need a WxRisk map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 We need to do this whole "forecast snow amounts double or triple in the final 24 hours before storm start" thing before our February HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We need to do this whole "forecast snow amounts double or triple in the final 24 hours before storm start" thing before our February HECS You know as well as I do, the big storm will be the one to trend the wrong way. Murphys Law. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We need to do this whole "forecast snow amounts double or triple in the final 24 hours before storm start" thing before our February HECS I just want a long-tracker that we can *all* feel comfortable watching unfold. 8", 12", 15", whatever...we need to strike this hot Nino iron and make the most of it in prime climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 My god I love snow so much. Haven't measured yet. Just enjoying the dopamine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 who deleted the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I didn’t do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: who deleted the thread Probably someone from Georgetown area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Very Cool 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’m in the green on radar! Now I know why green has always been my favorite color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 hours ago, nj2va said: Oshie hat trick! Figures the first time I don't see the Blues play in DC in years and they lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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