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January 2024 Banter


George BM
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3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The little bit that I paid attention to them, the Lions certainly have a solid team that can potentially go far of course...but seems that their defense has given a lot of scares late in games that they should have locked up easily.

Yeah their secondary was getting absolutely torched-not sure how far they can get like that.

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@BlizzardNole cool to know you are nearby for work!

Gonzaga is a decent neighbor… definitely loud during football season. But the trade off is free entertainment. Only been a terrible work from home partner maybe twice.

If I had access to the field, I’d probably stay in DC for snow events. But walking around the urban areas, unless it’s gonna be a blizzard, doesn’t match the jebwalk potential in a residential area imo. It’s also unfortunately less safe

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Wow 

Yeah seriously. I missed most of the band yesterday and was pissing and moaning - I could literally see the wall of snow from my Airbnb house. Well it moved north and stalled overnight/this morning and the yard stick disappeared when I went to measure now. Had 10 inches yesterday at around 5 pm and I’m guestimating 4 feet now but it may be more… ended up picking the jackpot spot to chase. 

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We probably shouldnt celebrate just yet but things appear to be on track for tonight. With that said, the next time the models go from a hit in the MR then back away from it and some ppl start stating that "why can't a system ever trend better? They never trend better", please remember this event. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We probably shouldnt celebrate just yet but things appear to be on track for tonight. With that said, the next time the models go from a hit in the MR then back away from it and some ppl start stating that "why can't a system ever trend better? They never trend better", please remember this event. 

It suddenly changed  the entire setup.  Remember it was keying on that 3rd wave for a while...never the Euro which is why it lost the storm...then suddenly models shifted to waves 1 and 2.  That had a MUCH lower ceiling.  I know some will come on here and say anyone rooting for 6-12" was silly and foolish and blah blah blah but that was on the table with the wave 3 scenario.  It was.  This current one has now just about maxed out its possible potential.  We got really lucky and are getting about the best possible outcome from this type of setup.  But I think it was natural to be disappointed when the bigger and better setup was suddenly yanked away.  I have not made one complaint about this event and whatever we get...but of course I would have preferred a more dynamic storm!  Also given our recent history I think it was natural to be skeptical that we would max out like this and get lucky with the lower ceiling scenario.  An areawide 1-2" was much more likely when things shifted to wave 1 and 2. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The relax is quite different than a pac jet type of pattern. That's happened so much recently that a "relax" is becoming synonymous with "continental Pac invasion" lol. 

When cold retreats next week, flow will be slow and cold will mostly just decay and not be "replaced". What brings cold back on the ens is a very efficient way to go from warm/blah to a single front then cold enuff. Cold continental air from central Canada pushes down into the conus SE over the lakes into the east. Ens guidance unanimously agrees that the Epo and/or pna ridges remain favorable. Potentially for weeks. In this type of setup a -AO regime delivers the goods because of favorable ridge axis offsetting lack of a NAO block when the AO displaces the TPV to hudson bay or south. The look reminds me of Feb/Mar 2003

Eta: I left out transient 50/50s would be the key piece for a big storm with the advertised look going into early Feb. We'll see about the NAO. So far it doesn't look to reload quickly 

image.thumb.jpeg.73f54de976ad1d9dbd37cb08d90e4b74.jpeg

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2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Fcps for once (maybe first time ever???) made a good decision: Fairfax County Public Schools announced that the school district will be reverting to its former policy for snow days for the 2023-24 school year. This decision means there will be no virtual learning days when school is closed due to inclement weather.

Unpopular opinion, and I beg to differ on your assessment of a "good" decision on the part of FCPS (which rarely makes any "good" decisions, unless it's an issue that makes the school board look good from a "feel good" standpoint). Those of us who have been "adulting" for awhile, and specifically, working in federal government have had to telework on "snow days" for well over a decade (or more) now...and snow days during the COVID emergency were absolutely no exception.

I see zero reason why FCPS students nor students from any school district shouldn't do virtual learning on snow days...and were my two sons still in the FCPS system (which they were able to escape in the early 2010s, thank God) I would have no problem holding their feet to the fire to virtually learn on a snow day.

Yes, I know that FCPS and all school districts "builds days" into the calendar, but on this side of the COVID lockdowns/pandemic, why? Virtual learning may not always be ideal or optimal, but it can be done much easier on a single day basis (in the case of a snow day). The federal government has proven this for four years now, and the school districts for the most part have somewhat proven this in that same timeframe.

So, yeah -- I feel FCPS made a bone-headed decision in this case. But they nearly always have in the couple decades I had to deal with that school district as a parent and as a PTA/PTSA president at two schools, and frankly, I'm not surprised.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It suddenly changed  the entire setup.  Remember it was keying on that 3rd wave for a while...never the Euro which is why it lost the storm...then suddenly models shifted to waves 1 and 2.  That had a MUCH lower ceiling.  I know some will come on here and say anyone rooting for 6-12" was silly and foolish and blah blah blah but that was on the table with the wave 3 scenario.  It was.  This current one has now just about maxed out its possible potential.  We got really lucky and are getting about the best possible outcome from this type of setup.  But I think it was natural to be disappointed when the bigger and better setup was suddenly yanked away.  I have not made one complaint about this event and whatever we get...but of course I would have preferred a more dynamic storm!  Also given our recent history I think it was natural to be skeptical that we would max out like this and get lucky with the lower ceiling scenario.  An areawide 1-2" was much more likely when things shifted to wave 1 and 2. 

do you average more snow than Pittsburgh?

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

There should be no virtual learning on snow days unless we somehow have a massively backloaded winter and the kids can't get into school...and even then I'm not really for it.

Kids should get some days off for snow so that they can get outside in the snow and be kids, if nothing else!

Agreed! #snowdaysupporter 

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